Bush's War Against Iraq Could Lead to Over 1 Million Childrens Deaths

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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“In the event of a crisis, 30 percent of children under 5 would be at risk of death from malnutrition”

Over 1 Million Iraqi Children Might Die in War - UN Document](CASI Press Release: Over 1 Million Iraqi Children Might Die in War - Secret UN Document) CASI

A newly-obtained confidential UN document predicts that 30 percent of children under 5 in Iraq, or 1.26 million, “would be at risk of death from malnutrition” in the event of a war. The draft document, “Integrated Humanitarian Contingency Plan for Iraq and Neighbouring Countries”, was produced by the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on 7 January 2003. Its release comes as aid agencies and government representatives meet urgently in Geneva to discuss humanitarian operations in the event of war."

The document, available at Internal UN Documents about Iraq, including consequences of war on Iraq - Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI), contains the following key assessments:

  • “In the event of a crisis, 30 percent of children under 5 would be at risk of death from malnutrition” [p. 3(5)]. With 4.2 million children under five in Iraq [p. 3(5)], this represents 1.26 million children under five.
  • “the collapse of essential services in Iraq … could lead to a humanitarian emergency of proportions well beyond the capacity of UN agencies and other aid organizations” [p. 4(6)]
  • “all UN agencies have been facing severe funding constraints that are preventing them from reaching even minimum levels of preparedness” [p. 1(3)]
  • “the effects of over 12 years of sanctions, preceded by war, have considerably increased the vulnerability of the population”. [p. 3(5)]
  • “WFP [World Food Programme] estimates that approximately 10 million people … would be highly food insecure, displaced or directly affected by military action” [p. 11(13)]
  • “in the event of a crisis, only 39 percent of the population would be serviced [with water] on a rationed basis” [p. 12(14)]
  • “UNHCR estimates that up to 1.45 million refugees and asylum-seekers may seek to flee Iraq in the event of a military conflict” [p. 9(11)]
  • “Up to 900,000 people may be displaced in addition to the 900,000-1,100,000 existing IDPs [internally displaced persons]” [p. 10(12)]
    [from tables on p. 12(14)]
  • 5,210,000 are highly vulnerable children under five and pregnant and lactating women.
  • 500,000 potential direct and indirect casualties (overall population).
  • 3,020,000 at nutritional risk (overall population).
  • 18,240,000 might need access to treated water.
  • 8,710,000 may need sanitation facilities.

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) co-ordinator, Jonathan Stevenson, said: "These UN estimates reveal that the people of Iraq are facing a humanitarian crisis of overwhelming severity. The $30m of emergency aid offered to handle this - little more than $1 per Iraqi - is wholly inadequate. Tony Blair talks of a moral case for war, yet once again the indications are that no serious responsibility is being taken for the impact of UK policies on Iraq civilians."

The OCHA document is one of three internal UN documents released jointly by the New York-based Center for Economic and Social Rights (CESR) and CASI. The document was obtained by the CESR from UN personnel who believe that the potential humanitarian impact of war is a matter of global public concern that should be discussed fully and openly.

Notes to journalists:

  1. The OCHA document is available at Internal UN Documents about Iraq, including consequences of war on Iraq - Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI)

  2. Please note this UN document is a draft. Estimates and other content may have since been revised. Please also note that a page reference above to, for example, [p. 3(5)], denotes page 3 in the number scheme of the original document, which is the 5th page in the PDF version hosted on the CASI website.

  3. On Thursday 13 February, UN agencies revised their funding requirements for preparedness measures for a possible conflict to a total of “about $120 million” (see www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2003/OshimaBriefing.doc.htm ). As of then, it was reported, some $30 million had been pledged after an initial request of $37.4 million.

  4. A recent CESR document also released on Thursday 13 February warning that the international relief community is unprepared for humanitarian disaster in Iraq is available at File Not Found — Center for Economic and Social Rights .

  5. A 1993 case study in the Physicians for Social Responsibility Quarterly found that “the number of Iraqis who died in 1991 from effects of the Gulf war or postwar turmoil approximates 205,500” (see Beth Osborne Daponte, “A Case Study in Estimating Casualties from War and Its Aftermath: The 1991 Persian Gulf War”, www.ippnw.org/MGS/PSRQV3N2Daponte.html ) .

According to an internal UN document, ‘Likely Humanitarian Scenarios’, dated 10 December 2002 and released by CASI in January: "There is a temptation is some quarters to equate the situation following any future military intervention in Iraq, with the population’s ability to cope in 1991. Such comparisons are not valid, as the sustentative majority of the population, immediately prior to the events of 1991, were in full employment and had cash and material assets available to them to cope with the crisis. Aside from now not having been gainfully employed for some time, during the intervening period, all except the most privileged have completely exhausted their cash assets and have also in most cases disposed of their material assets. Accordingly, the bulk of the population is now totally dependent on the Government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic needs and, unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping if they cannot access them." The full document is at Notes to accompany "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios" - Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) .

  1. The Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) is a Cambridge-based NGO which provides information about the humanitarian situation in Iraq and its context. It also aims to raise awareness of the effects of sanctions on Iraq, and campaigns on humanitarian grounds for the lifting of non-military sanctions. CASI’s concerns are exclusively humanitarian: it does not take a position on war on Iraq, nor does it support or have ties to the government of Iraq.

  2. CASI’s website can be found at www.casi.org.uk, and it can be contacted by email on [email protected] .

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"We believe that if there is war it will have dire humanitarian consequences,”

Iraqis faces health disaster if war erupts](http://www.jordantimes.com/Tue/news/news8.htm) Jordan Times

04 Mar 2003

BAGHDAD (R) — With many Iraqis still dying from the effects of the 1991 Gulf War, the country faces a major health disaster if a new war erupts, a top United Nations health official said on Monday. “If there is war, it will be catastrophic for the people of Iraq. We have a very fragile health system with a very vulnerable population,” Ghulam R. Popal, World Health Organisation (WHO) representative in Iraq, told Reuters. “The health system is stretched to the limit. It cannot tolerate any further damage or any further expansion of its services. We believe that if there is war it will have dire humanitarian consequences,” he said in an interview.

He said the devastating, US-led Gulf War in 1991 and 12 years of debilitating post-war sanctions had wrecked Iraq’s health system and sparked an outbreak of contagious diseases among its 25 million people. Infant mortality was already 108 per 1,000, and 131 per 1,000 for children under five who die from malnutrition, Popal said. Maternal mortality rose to 294 per 1,000. “The health system has not recovered from the impact of Gulf War and the imposition of sanctions,” he added.

Diseases back in force

He said many diseases that had been eliminated in Iraq before 1990 reemerged in force, such as malaria, cholera, tuberculosis, hepatitis, typhoid, cholera, polio, respiratory infections and diabetes. He attributed the outbreaks to acute malnutrition, breakdown of water treatment facilities and poor sanitation. Back in 1991, wealth generated by a booming oil economy meant Iraqis were healthy and equipped to cope with the repercussions of a conflict — but not now, Popal said.

He said hospitals, which until 1991 were the best in the Middle East and matched European standards, would not be able to handle war casualties because of lack of modern equipment and shortage of medical supplies. “There is no room for them to manoeuvre. They are operating under maximum capacity now, but if there is large scale disaster with lots of casualties, they won’t be able to cope… There will be huge humanitarian consequences.”

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Re: Bush’s War Against Iraq Could Lead to Over 1 Million Childrens Deaths

That’s a very interesting statistic. According to relief agencies twenty three percent of (Iraqi) children under five are ALREADY malnourished and at risk.

http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/c7ca0eaf6c79faae852567af003c69ca/7d8de449807f5761c1256cd700553148?OpenDocument

Looking at these statistics together, does that indicate the increase in risk to Iraqi children attributable to a possible war is something less than 7%?

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One thing which Aid Organisations and the United Nations agree upon is that over 1.6 million Iraqi children have already died from the effects of sanctions and war against Iraq and over 1 million Iraqi children are suffering from malnutrition. A war will be so destructive to the already battered civilian infrastructure, that it will only increase the suffering of millions of Iraqis. The UN has already accepted in a report that Bush's policy of a pre-emptive war may ultimately result in the deaths of over 1 million children. :(

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Dil he Pakistani: *The UN has already accepted in a report that Bush's policy of a pre-emptive war may ultimately result in the deaths of over 1 million children. :(
[/QUOTE]

Which is not quite the same thing as saying that 1 million MORE children may die if there is a war compared to how many may die if there is not a war.

If there is no war and we just have a vigorous weapons inspection and continue the sanctions, some number of children will die. The relief organizations are saying that the percentage at risk right now is 23% of the Iraqi children. Under continued sanctions for some indefinite number of years, one would have to guess that the percentage and number would only get higher.

Apparently, the worst case scenario if there is a war is 1 million.

Did you ever wonder what the worst case scenario is if there is no war? Another 1.6 million?

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I disagree with your assumptions, the only way forward to save thousands of Iraqi children from almost certain death is for war to be completely eliminated from the equation. This can only be achieved if President Bush stops his personal crusade against Sadam and the UN is allowed to continue its weapons inspections in Iraq for however long it takes, until they can give a final written declaration that Iraq has been fully disarmed. The Russians, French, Chinese, Germans, Syrians, Jordanians and many other nations within NAM strongly believe that the inspections are very effective. Contrary to the war mongering propoganda from Bush and his allies there is NO need for any military action against Iraq. In the coming weeks sanctions should also be eased if not lifted altogether, so that essential goods and services can be imported immediately.

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I do not know if the information is correct, but as per one PTV discussion prgm Saddam regime is responsible for 28 lakh civillian killings n Iraq and this massacre is done for different reasons, stability, political as well as religious.

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Catastrophic War for Iraqi Children](http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/2003/02/000315.html) Alternet

Iraq’s 12 million children are likely to bear the brunt of an attack on Iraq. The Independent (U.K.) reports that a team of international investigators have conducted the first pre-conflict field research with children and concluded that they are “at grave risk of starvation, disease, death and psychological trauma.” The researchers say the level of fear among the children is shocking. A 13-year told them, “I feel fear every day that we might all die, but where shall I go if I am left alone?”

And given that there is only one month’s supply of food in the country, experts predict that the chaos of war could tip the overwhelming numbers of malnourished children into starvation. According to the Independent, “The experts expect casualties among children to be in the thousands, probably in the tens of thousands, ‘and possibly in the hundreds of thousands.’”

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“Schlagintweit stressed that the situation of children in Iraq was already so drastic that another war there would probably result in a humanitarian catastrophe that would be difficult to contain.” :frowning:

War Could Spell Doom for Iraq’s Children](http://www.dw-world.de/english/0,3367,1430_A_792559_1_A,00.html) Deutsche Welle News 05 Mar 03

Thousands of Iraqi children are already sharply malnourished.
[thumb=B]ic93.JPG[/thumb]

In the face of a possible U.S.-led war in Iraq, the head of UNICEF Germany has warned of dramatic consequences, especially for millions of Iraqi children, thousands of whom are already severely undernourished. The statistics sound like a death toll for a country that hasn’t even emerged from the wounds of the last war 12 years ago and is poised on the brink of another.

Of the approximately 12.5 million children in Iraq, every fourth one is chronically malnourished. Five million Iraqis have no access to clean drinking water, making diarrhea one of the most common ailments. Child mortality has drastically increased: At the end of the 1980s, 5.6 percent of Iraqi children died before age six. Today, that figure has jumped to 13 percent, with every eighth child not making it to his or her fifth birthday. One in four Iraqi children of elementary school age doesn’t go to school. The country used to have a school enrollment rate of over 90 percent.

Those were the facts presented by Reinhard Schlagintweit, chairman of UNICEF Germany, at a news conference in Berlin on Monday. His message was clear: “Whatever happens in the coming weeks in Iraq, protection and help for the children must take priority.” Together with acclaimed British actress and UNICEF ambassador Vanessa Redgrave – who made a film in 1991 about the ramifications of the Gulf War on children – Schlagintweit stressed that the situation of children in Iraq was already so drastic that another war there would probably result in a humanitarian catastrophe that would be difficult to contain.

Redgrave appealed to governments around the world to put politics aside and give more priority to the well-being of children.“We have to put children before politics, and most of the terrible problems in our world are the result of governments of all descriptions, successive governments, all nationalities, putting politics before children,” Redgrave said.

UNICEF intensifies operations in Iraq
UNICEF has already redoubled its efforts in Iraq to secure the basic needs of the population for at least a month in the event that war breaks out. Some 300 UNICEF workers in Iraq – among them more than a dozen foreigners – are working round the clock to deliver basic medicines and food with high protein content, such as 150 tons of milk and 1,110 tons of biscuits, to 63 children’s hospitals in Iraq as well as to refugee camps at the borders to Iran and Jordan. Schlagintweit said about 240,000 children are so badly undernourished they have to be fed a special diet.

UNICEF has vaccinated about 4 million children against polio in the past few weeks alone, and in the coming weeks half a million children will receive shots for measles. In the larger Iraqi cities, emergency generators for water works and hospitals are being refitted with reserve fuel, and tents and school material are being stockpiled in the north of the country so that refugee families can “at least keep their children busy and distract them from the conflict,” says Schlagintweit.

Spokesman warns of drastic consequences of war
The spokesman for UNICEF Iraq, Geoffrey Keele, who spent the last nine months in Baghdad, said at the news conference that diarrhea and respiratory illnesses were the most common causes of death among children. He estimated that contaminated water – and the lack of opportunities to treat it – was the main reason for illnesses among the population.

Keele stressed that about 60 percent of Iraqis were completely dependent on food rations handed out by the government and warned that the consequences of a war disrupting distribution of the rations were unforeseeable. Keele also said that the situation was already crumbling in most social areas, among them nutrition, water sanitation installations, education and child protection, and that a war would only make matters worse.

As an example, he spoke of the challenges that UNICEF faced in providing education for children. “The education sector is still falling rapidly. Seventy percent of all of the existing schools in the country need to be completely rebuilt. Some of them are too dangerous for children to go and study in. In other schools, there is no glass in the windows, there is no electricity, some don’t have desks. Children are sitting on the floor and learning,” he said.

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Iraqis’ Suffering Can Be Made Worse Don’t go to war](http://www.countercurrents.org/iraq-stocking.htm) Counter Currents

By Barbara Stocking

OXFORD, England – **Iraq is not only on the brink of war. It is teetering on the edge of a humanitarian disaster. Child mortality rates have rocketed since the United Nations imposed sanctions in 1990. Up to 16 million people - more than two-thirds of the population - already rely on a fragile system of food aid for their survival.

What are we planning to do about this? The United States and Britain are gearing up for war. Oxfam has 60 years experience of working in conflict. We know the impact that military action has on civilians. In some cases, as in Rwanda, military action is necessary to save lives and is justified. But, on the basis of our experience and the current evidence, we cannot see how a military strike on Iraq can be justified, nor indeed how such an attack could be waged without violating international humanitarian law. Iraq’s economy is already devastated. Even with the food rationing system set up by the international community, malnutrition is widespread, especially among women and children.**

A recent visit to Iraq by aid agency experts, including an Oxfam specialist, confirmed that the water and sanitation system is on the verge of collapse. Most urban homes get piped water but two-thirds of it is untreated. In rural parts of central and southern Iraq, Unicef says only 46 percent of homes have piped water. In the towns, the trucks that empty cesspits and septic tanks are not working properly because there are no spares, tires and batteries. Sewage flows back into people’s houses.

Iraq’s water and sanitation system depends on an electrical supply that was crippled during the 1991 air strikes. Eleven years later, it is thought that one-third of the national power supply is still down. Most water treatment plants have their own generators, but 70 percent of them don’t work. Any military action that damages power supplies will inevitably destroy the already fragile water and sanitation system. Inevitably, disease will sweep through the population. Any attack that affects roads, ports or railways will lead to the collapse of the system of food distribution upon which the bulk of Iraq’s population depends.

Article 54 of Additional Protocol 1 of the Geneva convention prohibits attacks upon “objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population.” In Iraq, this must be taken to include ports, roads, railways and power lines. The convention states that “in no event shall actions against these objects be taken which may be expected to leave the civilian population with such inadequate food or water as to cause its starvation or force its movement.”

Given this, how can an attack on Iraq fail to violate international humanitarian law? Weapons of mass destruction are a real threat to global stability. But in this case the advocates of military action have failed to demonstrate that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction pose such an imminent threat that the risks to the civilian population can be outweighed. It is dangerous to assume that the suffering of Iraq’s people, from Iraqi government policy as well as from 12 years of inept sanctions, could not get any worse. A military attack on Iraq could worsen it.

(The writer is director of Oxfam. She contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.)