Bush Takes 11-Point Election Lead Over Kerry-Poll

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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We’ve discussed in another thread events during the GOP COnvention. Here’s the first poll out and it seems to reflect that Bush is getting a huge bounce from the GOP COnvention unlike what happened to Kerry after the DEM convention. Guess the convention was a huge success.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Bush, winning strong support for his handling of the war on terrorism, has taken a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry, according to a Time poll released on Friday.

The survey of 926 likely voters, conducted from Tuesday to Thursday during this week’s Republican National Convention, found ** 52 percent supported Bush, 41 percent backed Kerry and 3 percent would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader. **

Bush’s 11-point lead is the first time either of the two main contenders have had a significant advantage in polls, which for months have shown them running neck-and-neck.

The Time magazine poll had a 4 percent margin of error for likely voters.

An NBC News/Wall Street poll eight days ago showed Bush leading Kerry by 47 percent to 45 percent.

In the new poll, 57 percent of those surveyed said they trusted Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36 percent trusted Kerry, and 59 percent said they approved of how the president was handling the war, while 38 percent disapproved.

Bush also fared better on the question of leadership, with 56 percent saying they trusted Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while Kerry received only 37 percent backing.

On the economy, tied with the war on terrorism as the most important issue ahead of the Nov. 2 election among registered voters, Bush narrowly came out on top.

Forty-seven percent of respondents trusted Bush more to handle the economy, while 45 percent favored Kerry.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6149420

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People usually get carried away after such convention speeches. It will settle down in few weeks and then both candidates will be neck to neck again. I am pretty sure that Kerry’s ratings were up at the end of Dem convention. It’s too early to make any conclusion by looking at the pole ratings. I think the real polling results will be after the debates.

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I'm moving to France.

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[QUOTE]
Originally posted by Agent Smith: *
People usually get carried away after such convention speeches. It will settle down in few weeks and then both candidates will be neck to neck again. * I am pretty sure that Kerry’s ratings were up at the end of Dem convention. ** It’s too early to make any conclusion by looking at the pole ratings. I think the real polling results will be after the debates.
[/QUOTE]

Where have you been???? You may be pretty sure Kerry's ratings were "up at the end of the Dem convention" BUT you'd be very seriously mistaken. For one of the first times in recent election history (at least since the 1972 convention for McGovern), the candidate whose party just had a convention LOST ground after the convention. Kerry got no bounce. Zero. Nada.

You are right however that usually the post convention bounce settles down in a few weeks.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Seminole: * I'm moving to France.

[/QUOTE]

Don't go ** THERE!!! ** I suggest somewhere down in Mexico along the Pacific Ocean or Gulf. With a couple thousand bucks, you could live for four years in a little mosquito netted hut, drink Tequila and eat fish that you spear. Come back in 2008 so you don't miss the Hillary Clinton/Jeb Bush Presidential election.

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It depends on which poll. After DNC a Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave Kerry and running mate John Edwards a lead, 49 percent to 42 percent for Bush.
A CBS News poll released Monday found the Democratic ticket slightly ahead of Bush-Cheney, 48 percent to 43 percent
Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against Bush. You are right it was not a big boost in polls.

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And another poll has Dubya up by 1% taken at the same time and a third one had him up by 2% taken at the same time as the original. These polls were taken during the Republican Convention so such results aren't surprising. I'd take these results with a grain of salt, let’s see the numbers 2-3 weeks down the line, they will be an even. The lasting shift before the election will be in response to the debates.

myvoice do you really think these numbers mean anything right now?

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....Bush's 11-point lead is the first time either..... <<<<

11 points lead, and we are in the 9th month of the year. Do you see a connection here?

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Yeah...I think your right MyVoice,

Bush got a bounce...

His people are media saavy...

His Fear and Smear convention will probobly give him a big bounce.

What bothers me is:

9/11 attack happend on his watch. Prior to.... there was info warning of using planes as bombs...

What leg could George stand on if 9/11 didn't happen?

I think RNC convention was held in New York to remind us of 9/11, and give George the oppertunity to politicize the tradgedy of 9/11.

In his speech...he said something on the order that...his plans include liberating peoples...

Forgive me if the first thought that came to me was of Iran....

gov wants sanction Iran..

...like we have had relations with Iran? gov suspects nuclear weapons technology research in Iran...even though inspectors have not found anything suspect...

hmmm....

Earily familar words spoken about Iraq by Bush administration...

What are they really planning? Build up military in Afghanistan...build up military in Iraq...and...surround Iran? Another Bush War?

Is this the direction U.S. should strive?

Bush is best leader toward the War on Terror?

Like the war on terror is a winable war? IMHO will not stop. Will never end. Not until foriegn policies grant some understanding and hope for the people who join terror organizations because options are limited.... Sort of like kids who join gangs....do so because .............

Oh yeah...I recall...Code Red Terror Warning For New York and New Jersey ...issued by Homeland Security..toward end of DNC...

Majority media attention was on this terror warning....though later news broadcasts informed that this information stemmed from 4 year old intelligence....

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by underthedome: *
myvoice do you really think these numbers mean anything right now?
[/QUOTE]

I don't think they mean a heck of a lot as 60 days is a long time. I think the comparison of the surges by the respective candidates during and after the conventions are indicative of independent undecideds being more inclined to vote for Bush than Kerry.

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Since the Dean poll went totally wrong, I don't trust them anymore.

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There are many ways to look at the statistics. CNN/Gallup Poll taken after the GOP convention showed Bush leading 52-45. Now, thats good, however when you consider that he was at 50-47 before the convention that means a 2 point 'Convention Bounce' which is the lowest in the last 20+ years, where the average is 6 points jump after the convention.

Anyway, these are just some statistical ramblings. On to the 'Debates'. :-)

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As long as Bush is in the lead i am happy. Anybody think the Bush Family may take over the legacy of the Kennedy's in the US. To Presidents. Jeb maybe a future President.

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ahmadjee: *
Since the Dean poll went totally wrong, I don't trust them anymore.
[/QUOTE]

right on - that is what happened in Iowa - i mean Kerry's campaign was basically dead - he was just ahead of Dennis and Al - but he came back strong and now he is the Presidential Nominee.

if you guys want to know about Kerry's political life - he was behind for the second-term in Senate - but he came back swinging and won the re-election in 1996.

plus - a reminder for y'all - Kerry doesn't take the polls for guranted -

DEMS' new motto:

W for Wrong, Wrong decision, Wrong judgement, Wrong direction.

wanna top that? ;)

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
Come back in 2008 so you don't miss the Hillary Clinton/Jeb Bush Presidential election.
[/QUOTE]

Man this would be fun, I hope Clinton is healthy by then, and atleast for once people will come with flowers on streets of Tehran (or may be not).

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Jeb?

is GOP so desparate for leaders that it just wants to cash on the Bush family name in future? looking at the whoopin dole and kemp got last time around, i cant really blame them.

in illinois they have to import alan keyes so he can contest against Barak obama, on national scale they have no real leader to run the next time around ..i guess that is why the jeb talk. not that dems are any better with the hilary talk.

surely there are other real candidates in both parties for the future.

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**GEORGE NOT BEST SAYS UK **](http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-13217447,00.html)

Most Britons want to see President George Bush lose the upcoming US presidential elections, according to a new poll.

Just under a third of Brits want him to serve a second term.

But 52% would like to see Senator John Kerry in power, according to a Populus poll The Times.

The president is currently 11 points ahead of the Vietnam vet in the polls following a Bush bounce after the Republican convention in New York.

Thirty-five per cent of Conservative supporters prefer Mr Bush, compared with 38% of Labour voters, the poll found.

Nearly half of supporters from both parties prefer Mr Kerry.

The poll found that 35% of men favoured Mr Bush and 49% Mr Kerry. Sixteen per cent of men were undecided.

Americans go to the polls on November 2.

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IMHO..

Daughter made clear her opinion by sticking out her tongue.

No matter how the FoxNews said it was cute......

It wasn't.

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After a week on the campaign trails following the GOP Convention, Time Magazine poll shows Bush maintaining his 11 point lead over Kerry.

** Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a 6 point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month ago, Kerry had the edge, 51% - 42%.

Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on handing of the following issues:

War on terrorism: Bush is up 23 percentage points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early August.

Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August.

Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August. **

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/13/poll.tm/index.html

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Depends who you ask myvoice…

…
New poll shows Bush bounce fading

WASHINGTON – More than a week after the Republican National Convention - and in the wake of new questions about President Bush’s National Guard service - the race for the White House is once again tightening, just as pollsters and strategists for both campaigns had predicted it would.

A new Monitor/TIPP poll finds Mr. Bush and Sen. John Kerry currently tied among likely voters nationwide, with each receiving 47 percent of the vote in a two-man race, and each receiving 46 percent when independent candidate Ralph Nader is added to the ballot. The poll of 674 likely voters was conducted Sept. 7-12, and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

Immediately following the GOP convention, polls showed Bush with a lead of anywhere from 7 to 11 points. But that bounce seems to be fading, as more recent polls cut Bush’s lead down to 4 or 5 points (though an AP poll this week still showed Bush up by 8). Analysts attribute the shift in large part to a natural tightening as the convention glow wears off. It may also reflect a more recent series of challenges for the president - from the renewed controversy over whether he fulfilled his National Guard commitments during Vietnam to the escalating violence in Iraq as US fatalities passed the 1,000 mark. Senator Kerry has ramped up his attacks, too, focusing this week on issues such as the expiration of the assault weapons ban, and healthcare.