Re: Benazir Assassinations - the stake holders
*Internal Stake holders: * - Musharraf - a lot of people wil suspect musharaf/government but maybe the ISI shoulde be classified separately. maybe they thought bhutto's and sharof's arrival could split the country - one becoming the leader in sindh, other punjab. other reason mush coul dhave done it is because he did not want her to be popular and was running out of ideas to deal with her.
Chaudries of Gujrat - dont know much about them but surely they would not want to take this risk.
Fanatic mullahs (read Taliban, Al-Qaeeda etc.) - the taliban/al qaeda do not necessarily have to be made of mullahs. of course they wanted to get rid of her for obvious reasons. why was nt she killed while in peshawar? WHY pindi?
Nawaz Sharif - highly unlikely
MQM - highly unlikely
Other PPP fractions (Sherpao, Ginwa Bhutto etc.) - highly unlikely
Internal PPP leaders - more possible as it gives them a chance to take power
... ...
**External Stake holders:
**- USA / Israel - hard to say what the USA wants in pakistan? a passive muslim state is the one thing we could agree on i guess. does the usa/israel want a united pakisan or split into several countries? they nuclear factor - my view is that one day they will take out the nuclear but even then will they take out all of it? surely thats a gamble? if the USA were behind this they would do it for 2 reasons:- 1. to get rid of a leader they thought could do them favours 2. to bring her back and cause instability or bring her back, killer her and cause instability.
India - however weak pakistan is, india will lurch ahead but i doubt the would do this BUT they can very easily be supporting extremists against pakistan. plenty of offices in pakistan to do it.
Afghanistan - has no policy of its own and will just be a country where india or the usa will exercise their might.
Russia - i doubt it
China - maybe did nt see their interests in bhutto and thought she would swing too far the american way
Iran - highlu unlikely. .
Ok from your post I identify the following objectives, pls feel free to correct me if I am wrong:
- prevent the possible split of the country (Internaly: every Pakistani a stake holders here. Externally: friends / enemies of Pak also stake holders, since they would / would not let this objective achieved)
- stop her from becoming PM ( every other political party as a stake holder)
- create instability in the country (also quite a few stake holders here) .... ....
About "why the blast occurred in Pindi and not in Peshawar". Please elaborate what do you want to emphasize by relating this to Taleban/Al-Q.?
*PS.: The likelihood / unlikelihood who may or may not have caused this could be discussed int he final stages
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