An excellent article by Qaiser Bengali. It sums up all that we have already discussed at Gupshup. Explains why Nawaz is so obsessed about Ch. Iftikhar’s reinstatement even when the country is facing severe problems at the economic front and also Taliban insurgency.
DAWN.COM | Pakistan | Behind PML-N?s outrage
The PML-N has chosen to place the restoration of Iftikhar Chaudhry above the imperatives of a serious economic crisis and the security challenges facing the state of Pakistan, with insurgents striking in Punjab as well, including in the heart of Lahore. It was perplexing to find that hours after the terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore – an event with international repercussions – Shahbaz Sharif addressed a press conference and continued to dwell upon the issue of restoration of the judiciary. This single-minded pursuit of a one-point agenda to the exclusion of all else merits a closer analysis and explanation.
The answers to the conundrum can perhaps be found in the arithmetic of electoral results. It is pertinent to note that, despite being billed as one of the two national parties with Nawaz Sharif as a national leader, the PML-N has emerged in the 2008 elections as a regional party representing Punjab and Hazara. The party has no representation whatsoever at either the national or provincial levels in Sindh and Balochistan or from the majority Pakhtun areas of the NWFP. That PML-N has been able to carry forth its current campaign only in northern Punjab cities underlines its geographically narrow political base.
PML-N’s jettisoning of the parliamentary route can, therefore, be attributed to the fact that it does not command the numbers in the National Assembly and in the Senate to be able to possess an effective say in national decision-making. The recent Senate election underscored the PML-N’s marginalisation, except in Punjab. Its coalition status government in Punjab did provide it with a tenuous hold therein. However, seasoned power brokers know that real power rests in Islamabad. And having been in power for most of the last 30 years, Nawaz Sharif is fully aware of this reality. Of course, the PML-N can wait for the next elections due in 2013 to improve its electoral fortunes, but appears to be unwilling to sit out of the corridors of power for that long. This may explain its current confrontational extra-parliamentary politics.
The alleged unwillingness to remain in opposition for another four years also needs to be accounted for. Two explanations can be forwarded. One is that the Punjabi elite has held virtually absolute power since the military coup in 1977. However, the party configuration in parliament that the 2008 elections has thrown up has placed regional forces from Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan in a decisive position and they are asserting their claims on state resources.
Resultantly, the Punjabi elite is no longer in a position to use its hitherto near-monopolistic influence in the federal government to sway resource-allocation decisions. And having thrown its weight behind the PML-N, it now finds itself on the wrong side of the power fence. Thus, its backing of the PML-N attempts to create centres of power outside parliament.
The other explanation for the PML-N’s alleged unwillingness to play the role of the parliamentary opposition for long can be found in the ideological composition of the PML-N and its allies. Many of the stalwarts of the PML-N have previously been affiliated with religious parties. These parties have now also allied themselves with the PML-N in the confrontation with the government in Islamabad. The PPP, ANP and MQM are perceived to be committed to a Pakistan that is free from religious bigotry. As such, the religious establishment too can be seen to be unwilling to tolerate, for the next four years, a government that is not only unsympathetic to their cause but is out to curb their influence. They do not want to risk seeing their gains since the Ziaul Haq days whittled away.
The battle lines are, therefore, drawn on two fronts. One divides the northern Punjab elite and the rest of the country; the other divides overt and covert proponents of varying degrees of religious theocracy and those who wish to see an enlightened society in the country. The present confrontation around Iftikhar Chaudhry’s reinstatement and the imposition of governor’s rule in Punjab, couched in moralistic terms, are mere symptoms of a deeper struggle for power and for control. Which way the conflict settles will decide the future of democracy in the country and of the country itself.