Re: Bahria town plans huge projects
Let me clearify something. I don't have anything against Behria town.
Without getting into an argument, on what basis do you feel we will over take India? Have seen how many International firms operate in India? Have you checked on their reserves? Have you seens how many companies like Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, GE, Boeng, Dell, CSC, Motorola, SBC I can go on forever have outsourced their IT functions to India? Today, in USA, you will not find any fortune 500 company that does not do business with India. From outsourcing alone, India makes at least $70 billion where out total exports are at $13 billion. How are we going to leave them behind is a mystery that Mr. Suhaib can solve. I would love to hear your logic.
This may be harsh but hear me out.
I think at this moment we need to make sure we are ahead of Bangladesh. To assess the relative economic and social decline of Pakistan in the region consider the following facts: from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s, Pakistan was ahead of India in economic terms. Attention has been drawn to the fact that its per capita income has now fallen below that of India. At the turn of the millennium it stood at US$ 460 for India and US$420 for Pakistan. If the present economic trends continue, there is a fate worse than this awaiting for us. Bangladesh, until recently considered the basket case of the region, is poised to beat Pakistan. A combination of factors has made it inevitable that Bangladesh will soon have a larger economic standing than Pakistan. I certainly hope not.
If India grows at about 6 per cent per annum its economy will be worth about $10 trillion in purchasing power parity terms by 2025. If Pakistan grows at the rate of 6.5 per cent, its GDP will increase to $1 trillion. Currently, India's per capita income is just above that of Pakistan. In 2025, India's per capita income will be $7,000. If Pakistan stays the present course, its per capita income will be $4,500. Of course, the world does not always move in a linear fashion. But the assessment of the recent economic performance and future projections do not look good for us. If Pakistan does not get its economic act together, it will soon emerge as the sick man of Asia. With a population expected to touch 210 million in the year 2025, Pakistan would become the fourth largest country in the world. But in economic terms it will be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
At the moment, Bangladesh is behind Pakistan with a per capita income at $360. The size of the Pakistan economy today is about $60 billion. Bangladesh stands at $50 billion. But superior economic performance and rapidly improving social indicators over the last decade will soon take Bangladesh past Pakistan. Take a look at the average annual economic growth rate of the two countries in the last two decades put out by the World Bank recently. During the 1980s Pakistan grew at 6.3 per cent and Bangladesh at 4.3 per cent. In the 1990s Pakistan's was 3.7 per cent while Bangladesh moved faster with 4.9 per cent. Reinforcing this reversal of fortunes is the population growth rate. Pakistan has had one of the world's fastest rising populations. From 1980 to 2001 Pakistan's population increased at 2.6 per cent. During 2001 to 2015 Pakistan is likely to bring it down a little to 2.2 per cent. The comparable figures for Bangladesh are 2.1 and 1.6 per cent. For India they are 1.9 and 1.2 per cent. As a result of lower population growth and quicker economic development, Bangladesh will soon be better off than Pakistan.
These numbers are coming UN directly weather we like them or not. I think we need to get out of the fantacy world and face the realities. We can not get anywhere with the literacy rate of 20% or less. Just being able to write ones name is not considered educated.
Now why do I want us to target Malaysia? It is becasue we have a better chance to emulate them as to India. India is too big and it has a huge economy. They are going to be as big as China but I really don't care about it. USA is bigger and stronger then Malaysia but Malaysia is standing on their own two feel and they have the respect of even Americans. We need be a smaller but a stronger economy that does not have huge debt and upside down balance of payments. We need to export more and import less. We need industry before we have Behria Towns. We need to create high paying, techinical jobs. Do you have any idea how many of our graduates actually find decent jobs? That is everyone wants to leave the country and take their talents somewhere else. Don't you think brain drain is the worst thing that can happen to a country?