Re: Arundahti Roys "Seditious" speech on Kashmir!
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- IMHO, the reason we have low level FDI in our country right now, is b/c of the security situation in our Land of Pure. I believe that security situation would get a lot better, once the Americans start leaving Afghanistan. What's going on in Pakistan today is what in military terms is defined as the "Spill-over effect." As the term suggests, everything is spilling over from the war-torn country of Afghanistan into our country. But as I stated before, once the Americans start leaving and Afghan Taliban(AT) are made a part of the political process in Afghanistan, the situation is going to get a lot better resulting in the same in Pakistan as well. And then we will be able to witness increased amount of FDI. There is already a talk in the power corridors that Pakistan should atleast be given a observer status at the G-20 forum. This step is going to be also very helpful, in bringing the Pakistani economy to the world stage. **
I agree that the spillover effect has damaged the prospects of an economic growth. I am not sure that the US withdrawal will mean a significant change in the domestic security situation with TTP, BLA and the ethnic warfare in Karachi still blazing. Although I do think that Pakistan will no longer be in the world (read U.S.) spotlight which means that there will be a freer hand to deal with the three issues that I have highlighted:
TTP: Needs to be eradicated no doubt. Ostensibly US/NATO departure from Afghanistan and the eventual resolution of the Afghan Taliban issue should weaken their hold, however there needs to be complete eradication of the TTP. The tribal militias need to be empowered and the Frontier Corps should be under Provincial (KP, Baluchistan) command not the Interior Ministry.
BLA: There MUST be a political solution in Baluchistan. The Baluchis have not only been given an unfair deal since 1947, but there is significant evidence of a systematic discrimination of Baluchis within Baluchistan. Military solutions only serve to roil up an embittered populace leading it susceptible to foreign subversion. Furthermore, any Baluchi activities in Iran must be stamped out, we can not afford to mess around with the Iranians, especially since Pak. Baluchistan is undergoing a low intensity rebellion.
Karachi: The lawlessness and the mafia style tactics of political parties, need to be curtailed. We can not afford to see MQM, ANP and PPP morph into Hezbollah style parties that not only control the political levers but also act as extrajudicial enforcers of gangland style territories. Karachi is the economic engine of the nation – if we can not bring it in control, there is very little hope of sustained economic development.
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* IMHO again, just giving a Jinnah house to the Pakistanis is going to create a lot of goodwill towards the Indians in Pakistan. And quite frankly, compared with the Kashmir dispute, solving the smaller issues is alot easier. Right now, we are waiting on the Kashmir issue to be resolved but *almost **ignoring the other issues. I think this is where Pakistan's Kashmir policy can be modified. *
What is the incentive for Indians to give Jinnah House? I mean, creating goodwill is a nice thought, but India has no reason to discuss the smaller issues particularly when there have been multiple terror attacks in the country.
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I believe the reason we would like to have a pro-Pakistani government in Afghanistan has more to do with history than Kashmir. Afghanistan was the only country to oppose the creation of Pakistan back in 1947. Also, one thing we have learned from our 1971 debacle is to not be surronded by the countries with even a hint of hostile intent. We simply cannot have a pro-India government installed in Kabul. At the very least we would like to have a **neutral* government in Afghanistan. Infact, this is where I will support your point where the Afghan government should be made to sign an agreement to stay neutral in case of any hostility b/w India and Pakistan. **
The reasoning for opposing the creation of Pakistan has a lot to do with the Pakhtun question of that period. That question and the fact that Pakistan is a stronger state than Afghanistan no longer stands as a valid reason to manipulate the Afghan political system. I agree that we need to have a friendly government in power, but lets not forget that the Taliban controlled Afghanistan had training camps as well as contingency bases in case the plains of Punjab and the deserts of Sind were occupied by India. This strategic depth idea and militant training is directly linked to Kashmir and is a recent phenomenon. Solving the Kashmir issue, deincentivizes us and the Indians from jockeying over Afghanistan, in attempts to install pliant regimes.
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* I dont think there was ever a chance of full scale war breaking out b/w the two South Asian giants. Nobody wants war in the region, be it the Indians or the Pakistanis. The Indian government doesn't want to obstruct the economical progress they have made so far. It would be an economic suicide for the Indians to go to war with us. Surgical strikes by the Indian forces in Azad Kashmir- Yes. But even that would be very limited, and both the Indian and Pakistani elites in their respective countries will make sure that things do not get too out of hands.**
I think you should consult the Pakistani and Indian dimplomatic papers before the 1965 and 1971 Wars. In both instances neither elite wanted nor expected a war. The stakes are much higher. If there was any chance of a nuclear exchange in any part of the world (N. Korea included) it would be highest between India and Pakistan. Your threat perception might be different, but I can assure you that the nuclear option is very much part of the current Pakistani military doctrine.
Furthermore, any “surgical” strikes in Azad Kashmir would be met with a devastating response by Pakistan – which could very well involve crossing the international borders. So things can escalate very quickly. While India has, arguably, less of an incentive to engage in conflict for the potential economic harm, I have no doubt that another series of catastrophic attacks in India would push it towards open conflict with Pakistan. I mean think about it: Series of terrorist attacks in India -> Economic uncertainty/loss of FDI, why not bring the war to Pakistan? The problem on the Pakistani side is that neither Zardari nor Kayani can absolutely rein in these militants who are using Kashmir as a pretext towards attacks in India. I say lets remove the pretext of conflict by working towards Kashmiri independence joint with India.
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* I believe President Musharraf took that iniative and gave a robust push to track II diplomacy, but at the end the hawks(some say on the Indian side) were able to derail the peace process.**
I believe President Musharraf engaged more along the Chenab formula rather than complete Kashmiri independence. Regardless of the past, a new initiative needs to be put forward.
We can not sacrifice the security and economic viability of South Asia for 6 million Kashmiri people – who want to be independent from India and Pakistan, anyway.
Pakistan Zindabad