elmo is probably a better bet than economists if you ask me, rv.
every economist claims to understand everything about the current economic situation until this very instant (although each one would give you a different picture). but if you ask them where things are headed next, the only certainty is that they are all wrong. :\
economists have hugeass blindspots. the economy today is quite complex, has so many variables and swings to every tiny political crisis, none of which is quantized into any economical argument any more than elmo's handwaving. ceo1, are you seriously an economist pal?
elmo is probably a better bet than economists if you ask me, rv.
every economist claims to understand everything about the current economic situation until this very instant (although each one would give you a different picture). but if you ask them where things are headed next, the only certainty is that they are all wrong. :\
economists have hugeass blindspots. the economy today is quite complex, has so many variables and swings to every tiny political crisis, none of which is quantized into any economical argument any more than elmo's handwaving. ceo1, are you seriously an economist pal?
I guess scaremongering doesn't work as efficiently online as it would on trading stocks. I study Economics, yes. I wouldn't call myself an Economist just yet. Before you ask no, I didn't mean everything in my post.
These are definitely really scary times. When it hits home is when you realize that, ya there is a real issue out there. My mom has been a doctor for over 30 years. But in the last 2 years she had to change jobs 3 times. AH now she is settling down and seems like finally she is in a secure place.
There is so much realty which has not been sold. I have seen some signs for almost a year on the same houses. I have seen some malls which used to have over a 100 stores now have less than half. Banks across US going into bankruptcy. This is the type of stuff we used to read in history books about the great depression.
When we get all budday, we wont be getting social security benefits like our parents did. Lets not even bother to talk about the job market. uff.
you should be. unless you are under the impression the war is about freedom for afghan women. afghan wars are like zits that pops up when there is trouble in the western world - has been the story for the past 150 years.
global economy slows, the fires of war burn brighter. it is the "secret" trick of the winners of WW-II who keep chanting that defense sector drives tech advancement. a big chunk of the US tech innovation and research is currently driven by funding from battlefront needs of the "future". those drones and missiles and IED robots are putting amreekans to work in places like general dynamics, northrup grumann, boeing. this stuff isn't shutting down unless something else shows up and props the gaping hole left by the housing sector bubble collapse. worse, 5-10 yrs down when all these new projects come to fruction, there might have to be wars to have enough buyers for it all. unless the economy is doing well, in which case they'll probably be okay with just selling non-military products at inflated prices to their lackeys in the third world.
Who is this guy and why does he makes so much sense at times
There is a saying "economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions (or something similar). Most times, economists tell us a recession has occurred about 1-1.5 years after the fact.
^ what a coincidence RV, just as I hit the submit button to ur post, I got ur respnse. Never happened before - we shold ask elmo to calculatethe odds for this to happen.
I think AMR bankruptcy is not very relevant. The Airline industry is a very poorly run industry, always negative cash flow - and regularly moving in and out of bankruptcy.
The picture is bleak in Europe. Banks could be exposed to lot of bad sovereign debt from Italy, Portugal Greece Spain, Ireland. As Yasdi posted today in another thread, things are getting bleaker. Italian bonds now yield 7.5-8% (high yield indicate poor credit quality). Greek bond yields are through the roof. So to get a feel for economy of each country, google their respective bond yieldsm and you shold get as good a picture as Elmo or any other economist can provide.
US treasury yields are ~ 2.8% for 10-year. So people are rushing to perceived safety of US govt bonds.
If Greece defaults, that can lead to chain reaction. Banks with exposure to Greece sovereign debt will suffer. They will led less to industry - leads to slowdown.
No one can predict with certainty what will happen.
A poor economy is obviously tough on those who have lost their jobs. It can be very traumatic - having grown up in a similar situation, I can relate.
However, OP also asked if this can make one lose confidence in one's investments. One should not confuse state of economy with future potential returns on one's investments. Most times, buying in the teeth of a recession ensures high future returns, because asset prices have been knocked down already to below fair value.
Hence, if one's asset allocation is sound, one should stick to routine investments of fixed amounts with the same allocation rations among each asset class. Keep it simple is a policy that will win out in the long run.
Market up another 3 pct today - up 6 pct in last 3 days. Folks need to be able to separate state of economy from potential future returns - at best not much correlation, at worst, inversely correlated.
Make that up 4.3% today - up 7.3% in last 3 days. This is a demonstration of why one should not pay to much attention to macro or micro (whatever that means) economic factors while making investment decisions. If price is fair or below fair value. If price is significantly above fair value, lighten up a bit.
A poor economy is obviously tough on those who have lost their jobs. It can be very traumatic - having grown up in a similar situation, I can relate.
However, OP also asked if this can make one lose confidence in one's investments. One should not confuse state of economy with future potential returns on one's investments. Most times, buying in the teeth of a recession ensures high future returns, because asset prices have been knocked down already to below fair value.
Hence, if one's asset allocation is sound, one should stick to routine investments of fixed amounts with the same allocation rations among each asset class. Keep it simple is a policy that will win out in the long run.
Makes sense.
But I am sensing that people are very slowly losing trust in the government (at least in parts of the US). And now contemplating between cash savings or investing it somewhere. The second people start thinking it's better to put their money away in banks or saving it at home is when it becomes a huge problem. People in my generation know we're not going to be getting much social security benefits, so we have to prepare very well for when we're budday.
Now how would i know sweetheart. I ain’t economist. However, i can role play and pretend to give you advise about economy and how european or north american market might be crashed.
But I am sensing that people are very slowly losing trust in the government (at least in parts of the US). And now contemplating between cash savings or investing it somewhere. The second people start thinking it's better to put their money away in banks or saving it at home is when it becomes a huge problem. People in my generation know we're not going to be getting much social security benefits, so we have to prepare very well for when we're budday.
The worst case scenario, Japan.
Japan's problems are unique, IMO. Their aging population means less people supporting more old folks. I agree that US demography is also heading in that direction. But US does have an immigration policy geared towards addressing this very issue - so as the need arises, I suspect more immigrants will be allowed in to support the aging population.
Another main difference, Japan's stock market circa 1986 was at a price to earnings ratio of about 90!! Now, P/E of 15 is reasonable assuming say 6% earnings growth and a 4% dividend yield. So it was > 6X overvalued since the dividen yield must have been south of 1%. Also, I assume the earnings going forward rose probably at 3% annualized rate, not 6. So it would take 72/3 = 24 years for earnings to double. So after 24 years (ie 2010), P/E still high at 40 (80/2) if price stays flat. Still way overvalued. From memory, I think Nikkei was at say 25000 then. Now it is at ~ 8300, or a factor of 3 lower. So what is the current P/E? It is 40/3 = 13.3.
I believe Nikkei P/E is very close to my back of the envelop calcs above.
Long story short, if you pay nosebleed levels for an asset, you are guaranteed poor returns. And vice versa.
Fear in government is not going to keep stock prices down too long. Eventually earnings and dividends drive stock market prices.
Warren Buffet does not even consider economic conditions when he buys (or rarely sells) a stock - he just considers if stock is selling at below fair value.