Export target for 2003 $11B up from last years exports of $10.4B. (FDI) that already stands at $593.5 million over the first half, against the full year target of $360 million… :k:
From Business Recorder
ISLAMABAD, 10 March 2003 — Pakistan projects over $16 billion trade and investment inflows during the current fiscal period that ends June 30. Higher inflows are expected to be realized on the back of larger exports, a near doubling of the home remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis working in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the Middle East and North America, and foreign direct investment.
But if the US attacks Iraq, Pakistan may suffer losses estimated at $2 billion. However, Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, puts the price tag of the likely oil costs increases alone at $1.0 billion “if the price stays at $40 a barrel level.” “There will be no dislocation in oil supplies even if the war starts, because we import oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iran,” Aziz says.
In case foreign trade gets disrupted, losses may rise beyond this amount, but the Ministries of Finance and Commerce have yet to put a dollar figure on the hit.
The forex inflows that Pakistan projects at better than targeted estimates include: Exports $11.0 billion, up from the target of $10.4 billion; home remittances from overseas Pakistanis up from $2.5 billion to $4.3 billion;
portfolio investment inflow that rose, and is still going up, to $21.4 million from an outflow of $44.4 million, in the same six months of 2002; foreign direct private investment (FDI) that already stands at $593.5 million over the first half, against the full year target of $360 million; overall foreign investment is likely to touch $1.0 billion against the poor picture of the last years.
Foreign trade overall presents a healthy picture. Exports in the first seven months rose 19.1 percent to $6.41 billion, achieving 59.4 percent of the export target for fiscal 2003. Islamabad’s foreign trade partners and exporter to Pakistan are doing more business as they exported machinery, industrial raw materials and equipment valued at $6.85 billion over the last seven months, 19.6 percent higher than the same period in 2002. Non-food, non-oil imports rose 22 percent and machinery and capital goods were up 42 percent.
The fact remains that a lot more employment needs to be created, particularly for educated young people.
The government has made some inroads into the large domestic and foreign debt, claiming that “the debt situation appears to be moving toward a sustainable path, while much more effort will be required to achieve debt sustainability.” Domestic debt, in the first seven months of fiscal 2003 increased only by Rs.11.9 billion or 0.7 percent from end-June 2002. This compares favorably with an average 16 percent annual debt rise during 1990- 99.
External debt and forex liabilities were reduced by $200 million in the first half of the period. “In terms of net debt and liabilities, Pakistan has made considerable progress during the three and a half years,” Aziz says.
“As against $36.9 billion at end-June 2000, the net debt and liabilities have now been reduced to $28.67 billion by end-December 2002 — a reduction of $8.23 billion. But this debt number has been calculated by deducting the country’s official forex reserves that now stand close to $10 billion.
The trade balance stands at $711 million, down 24 percent. The current account balance continues to stay in surplus. In the fist half of the fiscal period, the current account balance without official transfers registered a surplus of $1,206 million, compared to a surplus of $297 million in the same period last year.