Crises forced govt to hold negotiations with PPP’
By Anwar Iqbal
This is a fascinating article.. There may be some really interesting times coming to Pakistan… If Ayaz Amir is right, the President Musharaf unwittingly laid the way for a more democratic Pakistan!
WASHINGTON, April 7: The country’s ongoing legal crisis and troubles with religious extremists have forced President Gen Pervez Musharraf to accelerate back-channel dealings with the main opposition group, the People’s Party Parliamentarians, US think-tank Stratfor reported on Saturday.
In its analytical piece, Stratfor, which employs former senior intelligence and government officials as analysts, says that Gen Musharraf’s “dire need” to rein in extremists could bring the president and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto closer to an agreement, “especially given that they are more or less on the same ideological page” regarding extremism.
The report claims that the two have been holding behind-the-scene talks for almost three years. One of the reasons these discussions have produced no results is that accepting a president in uniform would be a deadly political blow to the PPP-P, which stands to lose its support should it go against its historic role as the anti-establishment political party, the report adds.
The party also does not want a deal under which it merely replaces Musharraf’s main civilian ally, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q). “In other words, PPP-P is looking for a certain degree of power.”
But, according to Stratfor analysts, President Musharraf is only working with the party in order to secure his own political position. “Hence, a deal that undercuts his authority is a non-starter – something Ms Bhutto knows well. The former prime minister also understands that, just as Gen. Musharraf needs her to help sustain his hold on power, she must work out a deal with him in order to stage a political comeback.”
The analysts believe that the situation will force both the parties to find a compromise.
“While the idea of Gen Musharraf remaining military chief is unthinkable for the PPP-P, a deal under which Gen Musharraf retains a considerable degree of power as the civilian president and Bhutto serves as prime minister – with more authority than the current prime minister enjoys – might be acceptable.”
The analysts argue that while President Musharraf will not want to give up his position as military chief – the source of his strength – the political crisis in the country has made it clear that clinging to this title could weaken his hold on power.“Given what is at stake for both sides, a deal under which Mr Musharraf – as a civilian president – acts as a balancing force between parliament and the military is not out of the question.”
The analysts add that in the past, Bhutto and her PPP-P have headed governments in which the military had oversight over the civilian administration and the civilian president had the power to dismiss the cabinet and parliament.
“A slightly altered version of this, wherein a PPP-P-led government exercises more power than it has during its last two stints in office, is possible,” they conclude.
But the analysts also point out that both sides still need to work out the details, “most important is what will happen to the ruling PML if Gen. Musharraf and the PPP-P strike a deal.”
The analysts note that while the country’s growing political and security instability has forced Gen. Musharraf and the PPP-P to become more pragmatic, it has done the same for the PML.
The party, which has opposed a Musharraf-Bhutto deal for fear of losing its political position, now is entertaining the idea of forming a coalition government with the PPP-P and other like-minded groups – along the lines of the left-centre-right governments in Germany and Israel.
Stratfor analysts, however, warn that it is too early to say whether such a deal can be worked out, especially given the number of moving parts on Pakistan’s domestic political scene.
“But it is certain that – regardless of such a coalition’s configuration – Washington would certainly favour an option that unites the establishment and the mainstream opposition.”
From the US point of view, such a setup would balance the need for change with the need to maintain continuity, and hopefully allow the country to move past the current crisis and focus on fighting jihadis, the analysts add.