And World's Top Market Is...Pakistan (merged)

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
61

Mashallah, GDP has been expected higher for year 2003-04. :jhanda:

GDP growth estimated at 5.3pc for 03-04

ISLAMABAD, May 24: **The government has estimated 5.3 per cent overall GDP growth rate during fiscal 2003-04 and projected fiscal deficit at 4 per cent of GDP, inflation at 3.9 per cent, monetary growth at 11.3 per cent , development spending at 3.4 per cent of GDP, and forex reserves at $11.54 billion. **

Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz told the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) on Saturday that Pakistan’s economy not only displayed remarkable resilience mainly due to wide ranging structural reforms programme initiated three years back but its economic fundamentals have further been strengthened during the current fiscal year.

**He claimed that poverty has flattened and was beginning to show signs of decline. He said that the projected overall GDP growth would focus to consolidate the gains of realized growth and deepen the process of institutionalizing reforms.

The main objective of the fiscal policy would be to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 4 per cent of GDP and to enhance the development expenditure to 3.4 per cent of GDP during 2003-04. **

Agriculture sector is anticipated to grow by 4.2 per cent, manufacturing sector at 7.8 per cent, large-scale manufacturing sector at 8.8 per cent and small-scale manufacturing sector at 5.3 per cent during the next financial year.

**The total investment is projected at Rs739.5 billion during next year which is 19.1 per cent higher over the level of investment of Rs620.9 billion in 2002-03. Total investment is forecast to reach 16.9 per cent of the GDP against the previous year’s level of 15.6 per cent. **

The estimated fixed investment of Rs647.1 billion for 2003-04 includes Rs263.2 billion for public sector and Rs383.9 billion for private sector. This implies that 59.3 per cent of fixed investment will be covered by the private sector. As a ratio of GDP, public and private sector investment are projected to be at 6 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.

It is expected that fiscal year 2003-04 may experience deterioration in trade balance due to exports (Fob value), which are projected to grow by 6 per cent while imports (fob) are forecast to increase by 7.5 per cent.

**The trade account is projected to be in deficit by $1.231 billion in 2003-04 against $1.002 billion during 2002-03. The workers remittances for fiscal 2003-04 have been projected at $3.60 billion against $4.102 billion for 2002-03 i.e. 12.10 per cent decline.

The gross disbursements of official development assistance (ODA) are expected to increase to $1.719 billion in 2003-04 compared to $1.589 billion in 2002-03.

The monetary expansion is expected to increase by around 11.3 per cent during the fiscal year 2003-04.

The rate of inflation is likely to be contained at the level of 3.5 per cent during fiscal 2002-03, and it is projected that it would be kept at 3.9 per cent during fiscal 2003-04. **

On the growth side, the agriculture sector growth is premised on the expectations of improved water availability, water saving techniques and changes in cropping patterns to cope with droughts. The output of major crops is projected to grow by 5.5 per cent and fishing by 4.5 per cent whereas other sub-sectors like minor crops, livestock and forestry are envisaged to grow by 3.5 per cent, 3 per cent, and 5.3 per cent respectively.

The growth rate of the manufacturing sector envisioned on large scale manufacturing sector’s growth of 8.8 per cent and small scale manufacturing sector growth of 5.3 per cent. Sugar, petroleum products, chemicals, cement, cotton yarn and cotton cloth, railway coaches/locomotives, motor vehicles, engineering goods, air-conditioners, cigarettes, motor tyres, fertilizer and some electronics items like refrigerators, TV sets, transformers would be the main growing industries.

The growth target of mining and quarrying sector is fixed at 3.6 per cent because of greater foreign investment is expected especially in the field of oil and gas and coal.

The prospects for electricity and gas distribution during the year 2003-04 are likely to improve as hydropower projects are being accorded more importance and the sector recovers from the adverse impact of drought and higher oil bill. It is projected to grow at a rate of 5.3 per cent during fiscal year 2003-04.

National savings are expected to equal total investment for the year 2003-04, as the current account is likely to be in balance.

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Dil he Pakistani: *
Bilal, analysts are stating that Pakistan is making good progress in eliminating fraud and bribery within it society. As for your insinuation about where I live well, I think thats irrelavent, I have relatives in Pakistan so establishing whats happening there isnt a problem. I also base my opinions on economic publications and reports from independant journals. I do not support any one political party and am sure many pakistanis have similar feelings. All they want is a strong prosperous Pakistan and an end to the corrupt form of Governance as seen under previous Administrations. All these things are being acheived under the current policies initiated by Musharaff.
[/QUOTE]

i also want to see pakistan progress.....but if independent journals tell u that fraud n bribery are being eliminated, then they're talking crap!!
you say the previous administrations were corrupt.....i agree and i also agree to the fact that pakistan is progressing
but can anyone say that the corrupt figures of yesterday are not present in todays government......wheres the accountibility?
Musharraf has gone against the very base of his coup.....he overthrew nawaz's corrupt government and since nawaz's chamchas switched sides, they were brought back to power!!

63

More tremendous news on tax collection, which is projected to take another upward leap in the coming year. This means that tax revenues will have risen from 308 billion rupees in 1999 (when General Musharraf took power) to 510 billion in 2004 - a hugely impressive 66% increase.

Rs 505-510 billion revenue target likely for 2003-04

The Central Board of Revenue (CBR) is likely to set a revenue target between Rs 505-510 billion for the fiscal year 2003-04, to be finalised by the end of the week, sources told Business Recorder. There are various assumptions that the targets vary from Rs 505 billion to Rs 510 billion and during Sunday meeting of the CBR officials with Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, some changes have been made on various schemes of the Board. The government has agreed to Rs 506 billion with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is not likely to set lesser than the figure. However, on certain assumptions the board can enhance the target, which would not go beyond Rs 510 billion. The basis for Rs 505 billion is a simple 10 percent increase from the current year’s final target of Rs 458 billion. The government has set the target of GDP growth of 5.3 percent and the current year’s CBR target of Rs 458 is also going to be met, which means that the overall scenario is favourable for a higher target between Rs 505 billion and Rs 510 billion.

The current GDP estimates are now 4.9 percent, 0.4 percent higher than the targeted 4.5 percent due to better agriculture and large-scale manufacturing performance. The board is measuring the fiscal impact of the changes the minister has directed and would come up with the final figure by the end of the week. On the other hand, the Finance Ministry is starting consultations with various ministries, especially with the economic ministries like commerce, industries, food and agriculture, petroleum, economic affairs and planning for finalisation of recommendations for the budget. This process would be finalised before the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting on May 29 to be chaired by Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali and participated by federal ministers and provincial chief ministers. The package for government employees and for the pensioners is also under consideration of the ministry for the budget. There are other incentives expected to be announced in the budget for various segments of the society. The PSDP target has been proposed at Rs 456 billion that would be finalised in the NEC meeting.

http://www.brecorder.com

64

Investors ignored LFO deadlock as KSE crossed 3100 mark… :slight_smile:

KSE 100-share index crosses 3,100-point barrier

KARACHI, May 26: The KSE 100-share index on Monday breached through the barrier of 3,100 points as bulls were not inclined to loosen their grip on the market at least until the national budget on June 7 , ignoring political risks associated with the LFO deadlock. It ended at 3,106.41, up 26.46 points. :k:

Analysts predict the current forward thrust of the market will continue, boosted by pre-budget speculative buying and bargain-hunting, although it will manifest itself in a big way by early next month.

“It will not call the index’s meteoric rise to a record level as a prelude of its upward march to some new targets but one thing appears certain that the liquidity-driven rally could work wonders in the coming sessions also,” an analyst who is still in two minds about the future direction of the market says.

Technical corrections notwithstanding, the possibility of a massive retreat at this stage appears remote, he says. “The future key of the index is now in pretty safe hands.”

After rising further higher, it finally finished at 3,106.41 points as compared to 3,079.95 at the last weekend as leading base shares managed to put on fresh gains. Over the last three weeks, it has successfully breached through the barriers of 2,900, 3,000 and 3,100 points, gaining over 200 points or about 12 per cent after bettering its all-time records in quick succession.

Pakistan Oilfields on reports of higher profits and early sell off and PSO were among the overvalued shares, which led the market advance to a new record level but the notable feature was that most of the second-liners attracted bulk of the support as an attractive bait of capital gains dominated the entire trading.

“The rally above the 3,100 index level was terribly broad-based as investor’s buying interest spilled over to a wide sectors of the listed shares,” analysts said. **“Never before in the history of the KSE such a record number (478) of shares came in for trading in a single session.” **

It was more than a half of the total listed shares of 704 and signals that pre-budget speculative buying has entered the market though on selected counters and could manifest itself in a big way by early next month.

Some years back the number of total listed companies was 862, but it has progressively shrank to the present total owing to delisting sought by some of the managements, while some others defaulted for violating the listing rules.

For the last couple of years, the number of active shares seldom touch the high mark of 300 both sides including the static ones, but the figure of 478 active scrips reflects that the market is heading to establish new records both in terms of index and the extent of capital gains.

“The number has certainly given the depth to stock trading as bulk of the support outflowed to the second-liners from the blue chip counters,” says a leading broker adding “this ensures it may not be possible for the speculators or the bargain-hunters to outwit the small savers that easily.”

He says a number of investors are also unloading their positions in the high-profile shares to buy the low-priced ones in apparent bid to realize quick gains rather than making long-term investment.

Plus signs dominated the trading list under the lead of Javed Omer and Pakistan Oilfields, which rose by Rs8.60 to Rs9.40 followed by Sitara Chemicals, Dreamworld, Shahtaj Sugar, Pakistan Refinery, Shafiq Textiles and Bhanero Textiles, up Rs4 to Rs7.85. There were several others, which rose over Rs2.

Atlas Honda and Siemens Pakistan were leading among the losers, off Rs4.20 and Rs10 followed by Metropolitan Bank, Shell Pakistan, Reckitt and Benckiser, Otsuak Pakistan and Artistic Denim, off Rs1.20 to Rs3.55.

Trading volume suffered a share decline at 277m shares from the previous 346m shares but the advancing shares maintained a strong lead over the losing ones at 276 to 153, with 49 shares holding on to the last levels.

D.G. Khan Cement topped the list of most actives on reports of higher export to Afghanistan, higher by Rs1.10 at Rs19.45 on 34m shares, followed by KESC, firm 20 paisa at Rs6.10 on 21m shares, Hub-Power unchanged at Rs35.25 on 19m shares, PTCL, steady by five paisa at Rs26.15 also on 19m shares, Pakistan Oilfields, higher by Rs9.20 at Rs202.95 on 17m shares and PSO, up 25 paisa at Rs214.50 on 9m shares.

FFC-Jordan Fertilizer was also actively traded, up 30 paisa on 17m shares, Maple Leaf Cement, higher 75 paisa on 14m shares, First Prudential Modaraba, steady by 10 paisa on 13m shares and Sui Southern Gas, higher Rs1.40 on 9m shares.

  • FORWARD COUNTER: Speculative issues on the forward counter showed fresh modest gains where trading was also resumed in the June settlements side by side the maturing May contracts. All the shares rose barring PSO and Fauji Fertilizer’s June settlements, which were marked down by Rs1.45 and Rs1.85 at Rs213.30 and Rs84.50 respectively.

Hub-Power again led the list of actives, easy five paisa on 4m shares followed by PTCL, up three paisa at Rs26.23 on 3m shares, PSO, off five paisa at Rs214.70 on 3m shares and Sui Northern Gas, easy 10 paisa at Rs32.05 on 3m shares.

  • DEFAULTER COMPANIES: Shares of three dozen came in for active support under the lead of Schon Modaraba, up 15 paisa at Rs1.20 on 0.146m shares followed by Mehran Jute, higher also by the same amount at Rs1.50 on 77,000 shares and Suzuki Motorcycles, up 70 paisa at Rs14.40 on 68,000 shares.
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Some real impressive figures here…

http://www.brecorder.com/

**Real GDP grows by 5.1 percent **

The real GDP at factor cost grew by 5.1 percent and was supported by a 4.2 percent, 7.7 percent and 5.3 percent growth in agriculture, manufacturing and services sector, respectively. The real GDP at the market prices recorded an impressive growth of 5.8 percent as against a growth of 2.9 percent last year, the Economic Survey 2002-03 released here on Thursday said. The per capita income in dollar terms increased from $ 419 in 2001-02 to $ 492 in 2002-03, an increase of 17.4 percent. The real per capita income grew at an average rate of 3.1 percent per annum during the last three years (2000-03), while it grew by 6.6 percent during 2002-03. At the current prices, per capita income grew by 12.3 percent in 2002-03 as against 6.3 percent last year. Appreciation of exchange rate has further enhanced the growth of per capita income in dollar terms.

Total investment rose substantially to 15.5 percent of the GDP in 2002-03 as against 14.7 percent last year, while fixed investment remained stagnant at 13.1 percent of the GDP. The total availability of resources in the economy are estimated at Rs 4,041.6 billion at the current market prices as against Rs 3,578.5 billion last year, thereby, registering an increase of 12.9 percent. The resource availability comprises Rs 4,018.1 billion worth of Gross Domestic Product at the market price and Rs 180.8 billion from net factor income from abroad, adjusted with Rs 157.1 billion current account surplus. On the uses side, enormous increase of 63.1 percent has been witnessed in changes in stocks component mainly because of the carryover stocks of sugar and wheat. Both fixed and total investment is likely to increase by 10.5 percent and 16.3 percent in the year under review. The consumption is also likely to go up by 12.4 percent. The national savings as percentage of the GDP rose from 17 percent in 2001-02 to 19.2 percent in 2002-03 mainly on account of a significant improvement in the current account balance, which eliminated the need for recourse to foreign savings to finance domestic investment. The commodity-producing sector grew by 4.8 percent in 2002-03 as against 2.7 percent last year. Although, the improvement has mainly come from manufacturing sector, but agriculture also contributed positively to this recovery. The national savings as percentage of the GDP witnessed considerable improvement during the last three years (2000-03) and averaged 17.1 percent of the GDP. The rise in national savings owes mainly to the significant turnaround in the current account balance. The overall manufacturing sector grew by 7.7 percent as against the target of 5.8 percent and last year’s achievement of 5 percent. Large-scale manufacturing sector, which accounts for 71.2 percent of the overall manufacturing, recorded an impressive and broad-based growth of 8.7 percent, as against the target of 6 percent and last year’s growth of 4.9 percent. This is the second highest growth rate recorded during the last 13 years (the first one is 9.5 percent in 2000-01). Small-scale manufacturing maintained its historical growth of 5.3 percent in 2002-03. Construction sector grew by 3.4 percent as against 4.3 percent last year and yearly target of 4 percent. Electricity and gas distribution sector registered a decline of 3.9 percent as against an impressive growth of 8.5 percent last year and yearly target of 4.3 percent.

The Karachi Electric Supply Corporation’s transmission and distribution losses and expenditures have increased by 0.3 percent and 7.6 percent respectively while despite considerable efforts by Water and Power Development Authority the T&D losses have only been reduced by 0.2 percent during the current fiscal. According the Economic Survey Report 2002-03 KESC’s T&D losses increased to 39.8 percent from 39.5 percent in the same period last year and its expenditure recorded an increase of 7.6 percent in the same period. However, KESC’s income increased from Rs 28.9 billion in 2000-01 to Rs 30.7 billion in 2001-02, registering an increase of 6.6 percent. Similarly it said that Wapda has invoked vigorous technical and administrative measures to improve operational and management efficiency to reduce power losses and thefts but have only slightly succeeded in reducing the line losses. The trend remained unchanged even during 2002-03 as the services sector grew by 5.3 percent as against 4.1 percent last year. Within this sector, the wholesale and retail trade and transport, storage and communication sub-sectors grew by 7.3 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively as against 2.3 percent and 1.1 percent last year.

Finance and insurance sub-sector remained depressed as far as value addition is concerned. The sub-sector registered a decline of 1.4 percent in value addition during 2002-03 as against the target of 5 percent positive growth and last year’s actual achievement of 8.1 percent growth. Public administration and defence has depicted a growth of 5.2 percent as against 6.5 percent last year. Two minor sectors that is, ownership of dwellings and social services, have maintained their estimated growth of 5.3 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. Major crops accounting for 41 percent of agriculture value-added grew by 5.8 percent as against a decline in value addition for the last two consecutive years and a target of fractional growth of 0.3 percent for 2002-03. The growth in value addition of minor crops, which contribute 16 percent of the value addition in agriculture, grew marginally by 0.4 percent in 2002-03 as against the growth target of 3.5 percent and decline of 1.8 percent last year. Livestock sub-sector, which accounts for 39 percent of the overall value addition in agriculture, has witnessed a modest growth of 2.9 percent in 2002-03 as compared to the target of 4 percent for the year and actual achievement of 3.7 percent last year. The value addition in forestry sub-sector has increased by 8.8 percent as compared to a decline of 1.3 percent last year. The production of timber and firewood also went up by 8.8 percent each. The output in the mining and quarrying sector has surpassed the target of 2.5 percent and grew by 9.5 percent in 2002-03 as against 3.7 percent last year. The value-added in crude oil increased by 2.8 percent and in natural gas it has risen by 6.5 percent.

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[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Dil he Pakistani: *
I also base my opinions on economic publications and reports from independant journals. I do not support any one political party and am sure many pakistanis have similar feelings. All they want is a strong prosperous Pakistan and an end to the corrupt form of Governance as seen under previous Administrations. All these things are being acheived under the current policies initiated by Musharaff.
[/QUOTE]

I must admire the world you are living in... Just go out in any street in any part of Pakistan, and you will find the results of these so called imaginary improvements in economy. What does a grade-19 officer in Pakistan earn right now? A mere Rs. 15,000 compared to Rs. 12,000 5 or 6 years ago... Big improvement, isnt it? Meeting the needs of the family here with such an amount is indeed impossible in Pakistan these days... Everyone here wants a prosperous Pakistan, but some of us have our eyes opened, and do not wish to live in a fools paradise by reading all those ridiculous misleading reports.

You said corruption is out of the game now. Well, the worst people from the previous administration have been hand picked; who have even spread this disease to the army now. Look at the armed officers administrating WAPDA right now, they are the best example of the newly infected.

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Another first in Pakistan’s history, as exports break through the $10 billion barrier…

Exports can be doubled in 3 years: Musharraf: Pakistan crosses $10.4bn mark](http://www.dawn.com/2003/06/14/top1.htm)

:k:

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This article by former Senator Shafqat Mahmood, once a PPP stalwart and no open supporter of President Musharraf tells it like it is…

Economy marches on

Political deadlock continues with the opposition unwilling to compromise on the LFO but the economy is showing signs of revival. We generally tend towards doom and gloom and ignore the positives. This is neither fair nor balanced. Good must be appreciated as generously as bad is attacked with venom. And in our situation where good happens so rarely, it deserves a special place of honour. Let us count the positives. Industrial production is up after many years. Agriculture is doing well despite water shortages, and the services sector is expanding. We have touched a GDP growth of over five percent which is quite exceptional given the difficulties. The budgetary gap is narrowing and the debt reduction strategy seems to be working. Reserves are at an all-time high and the currency is stable. Exports have not only weathered the post 9/11 storm but are showing an upward trend. Some say that this is not due to any great feat of economic wizardry by Mr Shaukat Aziz, that most of it is because of lucky circumstances. Even if this is true, let us not quibble over luck. Napoleon used to say that give me lucky Generals because he understood the importance of good fortune in warfare. We should use the same dictum to choose our Ministers. Their luck can have a rub on effect on our future. But, on a serious note, there is little doubt that strictly adhering to deficit reduction strategy is paying dividends. It is easy to be a populist and spend, more difficult to control expenditure. It requires cutting waste and strict monitoring of budgetary allocations. It also means the removal of subsidies which is very unpopular. Excess manpower has been whittled down by a hiring freeze and through golden handshakes in state controlled entities. In some cases people have been just laid off. This is a difficult thing to do and requires a firmness of purpose which is not very common. Credit for this must go to General Musharraf and his financial managers.

On the taxation side also the improvement has been quite remarkable. The increase in revenue in the last four years has been twice as much as in the previous four years. This can be attributed to a widening of the tax base but some is clearly due to greater efficiency in tax collection. Everything is far from perfect in the CBR, which requires a revolutionary transformation, but even with all its imperfections, it has managed to do very well. This is certainly something to be commended and credit must go to Chairman CBR and the Finance Minister. The state owned banking sector is another area which has shown significant improvement. Some of these banks were in a very poor shape through years of nepotistic or political loaning. Bad debts were high, service inefficient, and growth declining. The induction of professional bankers like Ali Raza in National Bank and Zakir Mahmood in Habib Bank has turned these dying fossils around. After a long time these banks are showing profit, their bad debt portfolio is shrinking and the general efficiency of their personnel has improved. This is just a beginning and much more needs to be done but a very good start has been made. Again, all this would not have been possible without vision at the top and consistency in policies. Both the Finance Minister and the Governor State Bank of Pakistan, Ishrat Hussain, deserve appreciation and credit for this. One of the most innovative policies designed by the banking sector has been for the revival of sick industry. Forced sale value of each unit was taken as a yardstick and the debtors were given a choice to pay it off over a three-year period without any addition of interest. This has had an amazing impact. Industries that had closed down or were fighting court battles have come forward to pay their debt. So many are turning up to avail the opportunity that the last date has been extended twice. The banks are happy because their balance sheet is looking better and a reviving industry is having a positive effect on the economy. This is another feather in the cap of our finance team. One important spin off of an improving economy is the huge amount of cash available with the banks. This has resulted in interest rates tumbling down. Some of the better companies can now get credit at three or four percent which is quite amazing given our recent history. This will definitely boost investment and the reason it is not happening dramatically is only because of the archaic regulatory framework which will be discussed later.

Cash with the banks has also resulted in an extraordinary growth in consumer financing, which is a first for our country. Cars, household items, even tractors are now being financed by the banks. This is acting as an engine of growth for many sectors of our economy, particularly for the engineering industry. While some may quibble that it creates general indebtedness in the society, the fact remains that credit is the fuel on which developed economies run. Cash reserves with the banks have also allowed the Finance Minister to announce incentives for housing credit. Historically the financing of houses has been minimal in our country. With additional availability of credit, this sector is poised for take off. Construction is a key sector in our economy with many upstream and downstream effects. If this takes off, it will not only provide houses to people who could never dream of owning one, it would also give a spurt to the economy as a whole. Where there have been these successes, which should be freely acknowledged, there are also failures. Government agencies continue to be inefficient and predatory. Most industries still have to contend with twenty odd federal, provincial or local agencies harassing them. This includes well intentioned but practically useless organisations like the Employees Old Age benefits institution or the labour department or electrical inspectors. The negative role played by these state institutions is one reason why people are reluctant to invest in industry. There are other serious problems. The tax base is very low given the size of the country but those who do come into the net are squeezed without mercy. Tax rates are high and their calculation arbitrary. Penalties for defaults, or additional taxes or surcharges are sometimes three, four or five hundred percent of the original tax. There are instances of people who defaulted on paying one lac and are now required to pay twenty. This is ridiculous and counter productive. It also encourages corruption. And encourages litigation. There are thousands of cases pending in court where taxes or penalties assessed are irrational. Government is seen by the business community as a predatory organisation. Each of its representatives at the operational level, which are usually the rank of inspectors, get their pound of flesh or create insurmountable obstacles. This is an area where the Finance Ministry has not been able to make any change despite repeated incantations of purpose. There are some other glaring problems. The provinces are being treated badly. None of the advantages of debt relief have been passed on to the provinces. The additional cash is being spent at the Federal level on development but it is strange for the federal government to get into watercourse lining or minor road building. This must be devolved to the provinces. Additionally, pay increase has been given to federal employees, which would have to be given by the provinces without the availability of additional cash. This will mean that it will be taken out of provincial development budgets and will directly affect the poor. This is something that the federal government needs to ponder.

There is little doubt that the economy has turned the corner and we may be looking at some good years ahead. For this we must give credit to our finance team, which besides Shaukat Aziz includes Ishrat Hussain, Dr Shahid Amjad in the Planning Commission and some very capable people in the Finance Ministry, the banking sector and CBR. The only problem is sustainability. Can this be sustained or is it a bubble that will burst at the first hint of trouble? This is the challenge for our financial managers. This and the revamping of archaic and predatory government machinery should be the primary items on their agenda.

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Export target of $20B in next four years is a tall order but possible.

http://www.dawn.com/2003/06/15/ebr5.htm
Pakistan may get some share: China losing EU, US markets

By Sabihuddin Ghausi

KARACHI, June 14: Has Pakistan’s exports benefited from Sars that afflict China for almost a year now? Pakistan’s export grew by over 21 per cent and are likely end up close to $11 billion by the end of this month. How much Pakistan has been able to gain from this affliction that hit our friendly neighbour China?

This question becomes relevant in context of the euphoria being seen in the government. President General Pervez Musharraf expects Pakistan maintaining same tempo in export will touch $20 billion mark in next four years.

But all these people in the government and in business agree that China was stigmatized by the Western countries and there is a possibility that a small part of China’s share may have been diverted towards Pakistan.

Tariq Ikram, State Minister and Chairman of Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), said that he was confident that no buyers mission from the United States or Europe visited China. He doubted whether Chinese sales mission visited the US and Europe in the recent past. But he was not sure whether Pakistan was able to get any share from China in European and American markets.

Aziz Memon, chairman of Quota Supervisory Council (QSC) was also unsure whether Sars epidemic in China helped to push up Pakistan’s exports. But quite a few businessmen, big name in textiles say that leading departmental store chains in the US and Europe had stopped buying textile goods and other items from China for last few months and “there is all the possibility that Pakistan may have supplied some of the shortfalls”.

Whether any share of China’s products in American and European markets shifted to Pakistan or not, the EPB chairman was confident that Pakistan’s exports in the next year may go up to $12.25 billion on the basis of an assumed 10 per cent growth over the current fiscal year’s export earnings likely to exceed $11 billion.

Pakistan’s total export earnings in first 11 months of this fiscal are close to $9.9 billion and officials in the EPB were confident of exceeding $11 billion figure by the end of this month.

A more than $1.10 billion increase said to be a very conservative and cautious estimate is likely to take up total export earnings close to $12.25 billion by next fiscal year.

“Textiles remained the driver of the export growth and contributed almost 68 per cent in the increase”, Dr Kaiser Bengali, chief executive of the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), informed a press briefing on Saturday. He made this point while trying to stress that Pakistan’s manufacturing and export base was too narrow.

But Tariq Ikram is all for textiles where a lot of investment has been made in last three years. “Businessmen invest only when they are confident of getting good money in return,” he remarked to point out that textile is bound to remain Pakistan’s foreign exchange earner for many years to come.

The latest import figures show that textile machinery worth $462 million have been shipped in Pakistan during last 11 months of the current fiscal year. It shows that revamping and modernization of the textile industry is still underway.

Aziz Memon wants textile dealers to go for quick revamping of their production facilities. He said that the textile manufacturers in US in North and South Carolina and in Europe have decided to relocate their industries.

“It is time that Pakistani investors should go to Europe and the US and negotiate purchase of reconditioned machinery and equipment and also develop infrastructure for marketing of their products,” Memon said.

Textile Vision drawn up three years ago projected total textile exports to touch $8bn mark by next June. In last 11 months of the current fiscal year textile exports fetched over $6.4bn and in all likelihood is expected to exceed $7bn by end of this June.

Now that a new incentive economic package is being worked out with the US trade officials and businessmen are confident of maintaining growth tempo in export next year and $8bn earning should not appear to be a big deal.

The EPB chairman said that Pakistan was doing very well in those items which had been taken out of textile export quota regime. He expects close collaboration with China for at least three years after the year 2005 when Pakistan would be out of quota regime and China would remain within this fold till 2008.

“We have identified 20 categories where China and Pakistan can work together for marketing of our products,” he said.

While textile will remain the driver of exports, the officials are also focussing on other items as well. Rice, leather and its products, sport goods, carpets and wools, surgical instruments and petroleum products are also receiving attention of the export planners.

Officials have also identified 10 developmental category of items which are IT, fisheries, fruits and vegetables, poultry, gems and jewellery, marble and granite, engineering goods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and general services.

“We have worked out a strategy and a data bank to constantly update exporters in their respective areas of business,” remarked Tariq Ikram to assert that gains during 2002-03 were not one time achievement but are results of hard efforts that will continue in coming years.

He claimed that export strategy was not being drawn up in a vacuum. “A huge and massive data bank has been developed and Pakistani exporters mostly textile businessmen are constantly updated on the international trends and developments”.

70

the recent news is that Karachi Stock Exchange eceeded 3300 points beating London SE and Nasdaq. Anyone got that ariticle?

71

BIG UP 2 PAKISTAN! :jhanda:

72

Pakistan Steel Mills transformed into a profit-making industry

After the massive loot and plunder of Zardari and co, and the subsequent mismanagement by sher-e-buzdil Nawaz Sharif, PS has been truly transformed by the Musharraf and Jamali governments. Credit where credit is due. No wonder the Russians, Chinese and South Koreans are lining up to invest in this rejuvenated industry…

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-7-2003_pg7_27

Pakistan Steel no longer a white elephant: Jamali

Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali said here on Wednesday that Pakistan Steel Mills was no longer a white elephant and a burden on the economy and had been transformed into a profit-earning organisation. Speaking at a function at Pakistan Steel, he said the mill was not merely the lone indigenous steel plant in the country and the base for the country’s engineering industry, it also made a substantial contribution to the total national production of steel. He said large numbers of downstream industries had been set up as a result of the growth of Pakistan Steel and innumerable other plants depended upon it. He said there were hundreds of companies marketing Pakistan Steel products all over the country, adding the organisation was a harbinger of Pakistan’s determination to join the ranks of the developed nations.

**He said the previous 76 percent capacity utilisation had reached the sustainable level of 90 percent and sales, which were less than Rs 15 billion a year before restructuring, had now reached the record level of Rs 22 billion. The last two years’ profit of Rs 654 million had increased to one billion rupees a year, he added. He said after these unprecedented achievements the Pakistan Steel had made another record by clearing the huge loan of Rs 11.35 billion to the banks. “The Pakistan Steel is now poised for expansion. I am confident that the Pakistan Steel will complete its short-and long-term plans of 1.5 million tons production per annum on schedule,” he said. **

Speaking on the occasion, Liaquat Ali Jatoi, federal minister for industries and production, said Pakistan Steel had been able to run the plant at 110 percent of the designed capacity in May this year, which was a new record. “In fact for the past six months the production capacity utilisation has been over 100 percent,” he said. He said Pakistan Steel was able to raise sales from Rs 14.6 billion to Rs 17.5 billion in 2000-2001. “This year I gave the chairman a target of Rs 22.00 billion which has been surpassed. Thus in the past three years the increase in the volume of sales has been over 50 percent,” he said. Earlier, Lt Col Muhammad Afzal Khan (r), chairman of the Pakistan Steel, briefed the prime minister about restructuring, repair and maintenance, rightsizing, sales and profit of the project.

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Re: Pakistan Steel Mills transformed into a profit-making industry

yahan par bhi fauji?

apart from that nice to learn that Pakistan Steel industry is thriving..but its a global phenomenon as well…The steel market worldwide is looking up

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Re: Pakistan Steel Mills transformed into a profit-making industry

thats nice and all, but stepping aside the PR service of the bureacracy, go through this:

http://www.dawn.com/2003/06/03/ebr2.htm

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Actually we import steel from South Africa i think at cheaper prices than what we produce. The same can be said for cement. We are totally inefficient in producing those two and thus our manufacturing sector lags behind. But excellent to hear that they are picking up speed.

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:k:

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More record breaking and historic leaps forward for the Pakistani economy.

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/July-2003/6/main/top3.asp

Tax collection exceeds target

Pakistan’s exports stood at US $ 11.03 billion in the outgoing financial year (2002-03) against the set target of US $ 10.4 billion. “We have achieved US $ 11.03 billion exports in the outgoing financial year while imports stood at US $ 12.18 billion in the same period,” Finance Minister Shaukat said at a Press conference here on Saturday. The trade figures showed that Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at around $ 1.2 billion in last financial year. The minister claimed that the GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year stood at 5.1 per cent. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) had indicated in its latest report about scaling down GDP growth estimates from 5.1 per cent but later the government issued contradiction of its own report. According to the latest revenue collection figures, Aziz said, the CBR collected Rs 459.5 billion against the target of Rs 458.9 billion. “We are confident that the CBR will cross Rs 460 billion mark till compilation of revenue collection figures,” he hoped. The Direct Taxes collection stood at Rs 150.7 billion, Sales Tax Rs 194.7 billion, Central Excise Rs 45 billion and Custom Rs 69.1 billion in outgoing financial year.

The minister claimed that the government would be able to utilise 90 per cent of the allocated amount for Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) and poverty alleviation programme in outgoing fiscal year. The Jamali government had revised the PSDP from Rs 134 billion to Rs 120 billion and there were no chances to utilise the revised amount. The PSDP expenditures will be released in next two to three weeks. Shaukat Aziz, who came back after four countries visit, told reporters that Pakistan would obtain US $ 389 million US assistance during the current fiscal year. He said that Pakistan would be able to get US $ 3 billion financial package from US in 2005. There is US $ 1.5 billion for defence purpose while the remaining US $ 1.5 billion will be utilised for economic assistance, he added. He said that Pakistan would put in place a strategy to utilise $ 3 billion assistance package as “choice is ours whether to use it for debt retirement or for any other purpose.” “The details of financial package is being worked out and within couple of weeks we will take any decision in this regard,” he added. Answering a query about any US conditionalities for granting US $ 3 billion package, the minister said that Pakistan would not export its nuclear technology to any other country and issue related to freeze the nuclear programme did not even come under discussion during recent four countries visit of the President of Pakistan.

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PIA earns record profit in six months

Another previously ‘white elephant’ that has made quite a turnaround in recent years, despite an adverse international environment.

http://www.dawn.com/2003/07/18/nat7.htm

PIA earns record profit in six months

PIA Chairman Ahmad Saeed has said that the national flag-carrier is prepared to operate its flights in India sector. However, a decision to this effect has to be taken by the government, he added. He was replying to questions at a briefing to newsmen at the PIA headquarters here on Thursday about the airline’s performance over the past six months. He said PIA had earned a profit of Rs50 million in April-June period - a traditionally lean period - this year as against the loss of Rs544 million during the corresponding period last year. “This year’s profit in a lean period is a record,” he said. Likewise, he pointed out, PIA earned a total of Rs1.5 billion profit from January to June this year as against Rs533 million during the corresponding period last year.

Regarding implications of the closure of Indian airspace, the PIA chief said that though the airline had to suspend its 12 flights a week but it made only seven per cent, Rs200 million in terms of annual financial turn over, of the entire operation. The Indian airlines, the PIA chief maintained, appeared eager to resume its overflying operation because of it had been suffering more than PIA. The closure of airspace, he added, had affected 100 flights of that airline. About any possibility of the resumption of normal air traffic between the two countries, he revealed that Islamabad had been seeking an assurance from New Delhi that the latter would not resort to unilateral decisions about airspace closure in future.

Mr Ahmad Saeed told newsmen that out of the eight Boeing-777 aircraft, for which an order had been placed last year, two aircraft would be received by January next. The down payment amounting to US$162 million has already been made, he added. He said that following the induction of the aircraft into the PIA fleet, the international traffic would increase though several other factors would have to be considered. He elaborated that at present, PIA mainly depended on ‘ethnic traffic’ (regional passengers) as international traffic was not available due to the reluctance of American and Japanese nationals to visit Pakistan. He said that the deployment of extra capacity in high yield markets and weeding out uneconomical routes had helped the national airlines to attain profit of Rs3.5 billion in the year 2003. Recounting other factors which helped in the attainment of profit during the period, he said they included a nine per cent increase in capacity, 10 per cent traffic growth and 11 per cent raise in freight. Besides, he said, there would be a saving of Rs348 million due to the 4.5 per cent reduction in interest rates (9.5 per cent) on loans. Referring to the reintroduced additional flights between Lahore and Chicago and between Quetta and Mashhad, the PIA chief said both the sectors were very successful. Mr Saeed said that in addition to the disbursement of bonus, amounting to Rs200 million, among the PIA employees of all groups - from corporate to lowest ones -, the airlines had granted a raise of 20 per cent in their gross salary. This, he said, would make an overall impact of Rs1.2 billion. The pay raise would be effective January 2003 as per the PIA’s commitment, he added. He said that the airlines had done away with the old procedure of promotions based on length of service. Henceforth, only merit would be the criterion, he said.

In recruitment also, the sole criterion would be merit as PIA wanted to have new faces in the management and planned to induct 100 MBAs who would have to obtain 45 per cent marks in the tests to be conducted by the IBA. After interviews by PIA, the selected employees would be offered jobs on contract basis, the PIA chief said, adding that no fresh appointee would be offered a permanent job in future and the job contracts would range between five and ten years. In reply to a question, he said that there were a total of 15,000 employees in PIA apart from about 4,500 contractual ones. These contractual workers, he said, would be offered direct employment on contract basis with a package which would give them a raise of 100 per cent in wages. Replying to another question, he said that more than 700 PIA employees reach superannuation age every year and with this number, it was expected that by the year 2023, the entire workforce would consist of contractuals. Expressing his satisfaction over the performance of the airline in view of the prevailing circumstances in the aviation industry, he hoped that even better results were expected in the next six months

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Probably because of all the ilegal immigrants going back.
Nevertheless... good new indeed.

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Good point Muniya. There have been a lot of illegal immigrants going back to Pakistan. This influx has not only caused PIA to have a good profitable year but the property values in Pak, esp karachi, have gone through the roof.