Whereas you reasoning is sound, I don’t think a conspiracy on the level of individual attacks, nor foreign forces (foe or friendly alike) being able to buy key figures to collude and push certain agendas, is far removed from the realm of the possible. What would be insane is a blanket conspiracy by the entire establishment, but that would be a particularly paranoid argument. The truth always comes in shades of gray, and the fact is we’ll never know it.
As for chatter before the conspiracy…there was none to speak of before Kargil either. And I do count that as a rather grand conspiracy on the part of the Pakistani establishment, wholesale.