Is this story true? Has it been denied?
Al Sistani Rejects Constituion
Najaf – His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Al Sayyid Ali Al Sestani has issued a statement, which read, “In the name and Blessings of Allah we have found that the federation set in the constitution draft is division among your brothers in the north, center and south, marginalization for your unity, loss of your traditions and remoteness of your religion. The occupant desires to see you weak and desperate.” Sistani is the premier religious Shia authority, and a lot of Shia hold him in very high regard. it is obvious that he does not approve of either sectarian violence or the plan to dismember Iraq that the Constitutional committee has produced. Sistani could just be trying to head off a bloodbath, but if he does come out strongly against the Constitution, it could make the vote in Shia areas interesting. It is possible that this thing might not pass in the Shia as well as the Sunni regions.
Which then leaves the question of what next. A new constitution will have to be drafted at that point, but the hardliners may have decided to take matter into their own hands by then. Of course, the Sunni are already angry at the way in which the constitution was passed. There was no vote by the committee. It was simply declared accepted and will be put to the vote on Oct 15th. You can assume that there will be violence, as the insurgents try to upset the vote AND as Shia hardliners try to prevent Sunnis from voting in sufficient numbers in Baghdad. If three of the provinces reject the constitution by a 2/3 majority, then the constitution dies. Two Sunni majority provinces seem sure to do that. Baghdad province is also Sunni majority, but not overwhelmingly so. If it can be kept form the 2/3rd rejection point, then the constitution can pass. The Shia separatists have quite a bit of incentive to see that that happens. And they have a large presence in the Iraqi police and armed services, in addition to one of the larger militias. We could see a civil war before Oct. 15th. If the separatists lose, we could see one after Oct. 15th as well.
Perhaps Sistani’s edict might help prevent that. If sufficient numbers of Shi reject the constitution, that might cut the legs out form under the separatists. But that’s a big if, and it assumes that Sistani still carries more weigh than the separatists, something that can no longer be assumed. This has the potential to get very, very ugly.