The Pakhtuns of Afganistan who were in power pre-1979 were never in favour of Pakistan. Afghan Pakhtuns believe that NWFP and large sections of Balochistan belong to them. The NA although hostile to pakistan may not want to themselves reduced to a 5% minority which would be the case if all Pashtun areas of Pakistan joined Afghanistan.
The Americans will always occupy Afghanistan for as long as they are capable. The Indian presence in Afghanistan is a worry. The only way forward for pakistan is to cancel that out by supporting the Taliban. The Americans are in negotiation with some Taliban members right? The Indians could always outbid the Pakistanis and buy the loyalty of the Taliban commanders unless they actually have some principles.
I dont actually believe there is a way forward as the Indians and the Americans have their own agendas. If the Americans want Afghanistan to be cleansed as much as possible of the Taliban then maybe it would have to listen to pakistan's view as it was a backer and may even be so today. One of Pakistans gripes would be theIndian influence in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan can be free from Indian and Pakistani interference than I am sure it will move forward.
Obama if he wins may complicate the situation as he is targetting pakistan quite directly.
Maybe the Americans just want to destabilise Pakistan or de-nuclear it. If thats the case then looks like theres big trouble round the corner.
Some good thoughts. My comments:
- I think that the equation changed after the Soviet invasion, where many Pakhtuns came into Pakistan as refugees and Pakistan supported many Pakhtuns in the fight against USSR. Although interestingly even Masood was on Pakistan's payroll at time. While its true that the former NA thugs would not want to be turned into a minority, they are the ones making trouble and are being supplied by the enemy country.
I think that the Pakhtunistan issue is dead in the hearts of the Pakistani Pakhtun people. Don't get me wrong there are plenty of folks who have issues with Pakistan and we have been marginalized and vilified by some, but we're not talking about a BLA style movement here. There are more Pakhtuns in Pakistan than Afghanistan, so the Pakistani fear is largely unfounded.
Personally, I would like to see a stable, democratic Afghanistan that has a soft border with Pakistan. In regards to the Taliban, I am not sure if the international community will accept another takeover of Afghanistan even after the US, UK withdrawal, so Pakistan needs to have a viable alternative that is acceptable to the larger world community.
My proposal? Is to focus on the Iranian factor. Much of Herat, Farah are under the Iranian sphere and the Iranians have good relations with Tajikistan. By creating an arena for cooperation and reapproachment, we can effectively neutralize the current Afghan hostility. The Taliban era has great harm to Pak-Iran relations and we need to bridge that gap.
The American and Indian influence is fairly thin - driven by brute occupation or outright bribery. Pakistan and Iran are the true regional stakeholders in making sure that a stable Afghanistan emerges. I am not proposing that we sideline the non Pakhtun minorities but rather facilitating a broad based government that is supported by both Iran and Pakistan.
Gong down the road of supporting one group against another is destructive for the Afghani people and will breed more hostility. We need to approach Iran in good faith and work with them to make sure that regional cooperation is established on the Afghan question. Judging by how the US has treated Pakistan like trash (our Leaders are trash, not the people), working with Iran necessarily make thing too much worse. Besides, its a gamble worth taking.