Afghanistan-End Game!

Afghanistan is an unlucky country as there are many countries which want to have a stake in deciding its future, India, Pakistan, US, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. A virtual Indo-Pak war is being fought there at the expense of the Afghans, Iran and Saudia, and the Americans and Chinese also want their hold there. Currently it seems that the Americans want to have their last say in all this, thats why they are not involving Afghanistan and Pakistan in the talks with taleban. On the other hand the Pakistanis want Afghans to side with them in joining the China Bloc leaving US in the cold.

What would be the Afghan end game, as the count down has started?

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/20/obama-to-ft-drum-ahead-afghanistan-drawdown-announcement/

Top Advisers Split on Afghanistan Withdrawal, as Obama Finalizes Plan Ahead of AnnouncementPublished June 20, 2011
| Associated Press

WASHINGTON – **President Obama will announce the critical next steps in America’s decade-long war in Afghanistan on Wednesday, outlining both a plan to start bringing thousands of U.S. troops home next month and a broader withdrawal blueprint aimed at giving Afghans control of their own security in 2014.
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**But even as Obama finalizes those plans, there are deep divisions in his administration, with military leaders favoring only a gradual reduction in troops but other advisers advocating a significant decrease in the coming months.
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Administration officials say Obama is still working through the details on how many troops will start leaving Afghanistan in July, his self-imposed deadline for beginning the drawdown. He is considering a range of options presented to him last week by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan.

“He’s finalizing his decision. He’s reviewing his options,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday.

Obama is expected to make Wednesday’s announcement in Washington. On Thursday, he will visit troops at Fort Drum, the upstate New York military base that is home to the 10th Mountain Division, one of the most frequently deployed divisions to Afghanistan and Iraq.

While much of the attention is focused on how many troops will leave Afghanistan next month, the more telling aspects of Obama’s decision center on what happens after July, particularly how long the president plans to keep the 30,000 surge forces he sent in 2009 in the country.

There is a growing belief that the president must at least map out the initial withdrawal of the surge troops when he addresses the public. But whether those forces should come out over the next eight to 12 months or slowly trickle out over a longer time is hotly debated.

Military commanders want to keep as many of those forces in Afghanistan for as long as possible, arguing that too fast a withdrawal could undermine the fragile security gains in the fight against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the al-Qaida training ground for the Sept. 11 attacks. There are also concerns about pulling out a substantial number of U.S. forces as the heightened summer fighting season gets under way.
Retiring Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he believes the initial drawdown should be “modest”.

But other advisers are backing a more significant withdrawal that starts in July and proceeds steadily through the following months. That camp believes the slow, yet steady, security gains in Afghanistan, combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and U.S. success in dismantling much of the al-Qaida network in the country give the president an opportunity to make larger reductions this year.

There is also growing political pressure on Capitol Hill for a more significant withdrawal. Twenty-seven senators, Democrats as well as Republicans, sent Obama a letter last week pressing for a shift in Afghanistan strategy and major troop cuts.

“Given our successes, it is the right moment to initiate a sizable and sustained reduction in forces, with the goal of steadily redeploying all regular combat troops,” the senators wrote. “The costs of prolonging the war far outweigh the benefits.”

There is broad public support for starting to withdraw U.S. troops. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 80 percent of Americans say they approve of Obama’s decision to begin withdrawal of combat troops in July and end U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014. Just 15 percent disapprove.

Obama has tripled the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan since taking office, bringing the total there to about 100,000. The 30,000 troop surge he announced at the end of 2009 came with the condition that he would start bringing forces home in July 2011.

The president took months to settle on the surge strategy. This time around, aides say the process is far less formal and Obama is far more knowledgeable about the situation in Afghanistan than he was in 2009, his first year in office.

Obama has said the July withdrawal will be “significant,” though aides haven’t quantified that. They do say Obama sees the initial drawdown in July as part of a larger strategy aimed at ending the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and turning security responsibility over to the Afghans.
On a trip to Afghanistan earlier this month, Gates advocated for a comprehensive decision from the president.

“I think to make a decision on July in
complete isolation from anything else has no strategic meaning,” Gates said. “And so part of that has to be kind of, what’s the book end? Where are we headed? What’s the ramp look like?”

There are also indications that the administration, having learned from the U.S. experience in Iraq, will set deadline dates for the drawdown as it progresses, in order to keep pressure on the Afghans and give Congress mileposts.

With Iraq as a blueprint, commanders will need time to figure out what they call “battlefield geometry” – what types of troops are needed where. Those could include trainers, intelligence officers, special operations forces, various support units – from medical and construction to air transport – as well as combat troops.
Much of that will depend on where the Afghan security forces are able to take the lead, as well as the state of the insurgency. Part of the debate will also require commanders to determine the appropriate ratio of trainers versus combat troops.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

US cautioned to take Pakistan along on talks with TalibanBy Baqir Sajjad Syed |From the Newspaper

**ISLAMABAD: Pakistan cautioned the United States on Monday that its peace talks with the Taliban might not make headway without clarity on ‘reconcilables’ and without taking Islamabad and Kabul on board about dialogue with the Afghan insurgency leadership.

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US Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Frank Ruggiero in his meetings at the Foreign Office was rather curtly told that American unwillingness to share information on the talks was against the spirit of rebuilding modicum of trust after a spate of bruising incidents beginning with the May 2 Abbottabad raid on Osama bin Laden compound.

In a statement on Mr Ruggiero’s meetings, the Foreign Office said: “The importance of clarity and strategic coherence as well as transparency to facilitate the Afghan people and the Afghan government in the process for peace and reconciliation” was underscored.

Mid-ranking US State Department and CIA officials have met Taliban representatives led by Tayyab Agha, a personal aide of Mullah Omar, at least thrice since January 2011 – once in Qatar and twice in Germany.
On Saturday, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates stated officially about direct talks with Taliban representatives, but the confirmation came only after President Karzai had publicly spoken about the meetings.

Secretary Gates claimed the interactions were at preliminary stage that were not likely to progress till winter, probably around the time when the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan is held in December, but observers say the official American acceptance of being in talks with the Taliban was in itself significant and denoted they were hopeful about the outcome.
Although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has acknowledged Pakistan’s legitimate concerns about reconciliation in Afghanistan and the criticality of its involvement in the process, diplomatic sources regret that the US was not ready to take Pakistan along.

Responding to the criticism he confronted at the Foreign Office, Mr Ruggiero was quoted in the Foreign Office media statement as having reiterated the importance the Obama administration attached to the ‘Core Group’ comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan and the US “in the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process of reconciliation and peace”.

The core group is meeting again in Afghanistan on June 28 – the third time in a series of meetings that started a day after Osama bin Laden was killed in the Abbottabad raid. Alongside the trilateral mechanism, Pakistan and Afghanistan have set up a joint commission on peace and reconciliation which recently held its inaugural session in Islamabad and its second tier comprising officials would be meeting soon to discuss modalities for cooperation.

**Pakistani officials sounded critical over lack of clarity about who the US considered as reconcilable. “On one hand they are talking to Mullah Omar’s aide, but on the other the Taliban leader is on the list of the five men that they (the Americans) want to be taken out,” an official, asking not to be named, said, adding that Pakistan would also like to hear if there could be any space in the political dialogue for the Haqqani network, whose operational commander Sirajuddin Haqqani is also on the list of five most wanted terrorists.

**
A US official, speaking about Mr Ruggiero’s meetings, said a whole range of issues in relations between the US and Pakistan, including Afghan peace and reconciliation, was discussed.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

Afghan reconciliation talks: Pakistan worried about being left out in the coldBy Kamran Yousaf

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

Five Questions About U.S. Negotiations With the TalibanBy Mitchell Reiss
Published June 20, 2011
| FoxNews.com

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/20/five-questions-about-us-negotiations-with-taliban/#ixzz1PtJvBNVq

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

lolz.... just give dollars to paki politicians and security setup and they will behave like good boys and stand down while US adopts whatever strategy it wants for withdrawal.

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it is turning out to be big game of chess, where target seems to something else while the moves are set to bring down some other thing...

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The job is done! US has once again created a mess in the region, and now leaving their mess for us to clean up. :k:

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Maybe I am being naive but why is everyone fighting to have a piece of Afghanistan?

Because of it's strategic importance at the cross roads of south, central asia, middle east and proximity to china. The future pipelines will pass through Afghanistan from central Asia and recently large deposits of gold and copper have been discovered there. All these are the factors contributing to the interest of people there.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

1) We can't fight United States

2) We can't fight India

3) We can't fight China

4) We can't fight Iran

5) We can't fight Saudi Arabia

6) We can't fight Russia.

So hence we start supporting the gay-groups (mujaheddin) in Afghanistan and around our region, instead of doing any good they start eating us from inside. Now all the countries involve in Afghanistan are looking for ways to explore the natural resources & ways for creating energy corridors from CAR's, which will ultimately go through Pakistan or Iran. Mind you no country give a shyt about any mujahid & there super natural powers here it's just us Pakistani's which have wet dreams of Mujaheddin & world domination.

Heck most of the people can't find Pakistan on the map of world. So my fellows Pakistani's, come to the table - stop lying each other, stop blaming everybody for our problems. We are fked, the only way out is well i can't see any way out.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!


Did you come up with this list while asleep?

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nope after a bottle of vino. The point was all of these countries working against each other for ex. saudi have there own interests in Pakistan & Afghanistan. It's not like they are our brothers which they and us proclaim. Saudi fund wahabi brand of Islam, Iranian's provide support to Shia organizations.. .and.. it's kept going on. It's us in the end who suffer.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

It's expected that Obama will announce a withdrawal of 5000 soldiers by the end of next month and another 5000 by the end of the year. His speech regarding that is exPected today.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

^^ any info on the total army deployed by NATO and US in Afghanistan...

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

It is about 140000 in total for NATO out of which 100000 are American soldiers which includes about 30000 soldiers which Obama increased for his surge policy last year he wants to bring those surge forces by the end of next year before the elections as the American public is tired of the wars and the expenses involved with the afghan war is 120 billion dollars a year. The other NATO countries will also follow suit after American withdrawal and that's what the Americans fear as they may withdraw more soldiers than what the Americans would want them to.

NOTE: When Obama joined office there were about 30000 American forces in Afghanistan, so he has increased them more than 300 % to 100000.

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

^^ 5000 per year is just a joke then... i believe these many soldiers get to move out because of wounds, deaths or their end of service in particular region kind of things when you have 100,000 deployed....

but you are right, if US even removed 1 soldier in the name of withdrawal, it will help the other NATO allies to pull out at larger scale who are under-pressure at home and seriously believes that they are wasting their time in Afghanistan

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

Cost of Wars a Rising Issue as Obama Weighs Troop Levels
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By HELENE COOPER
Published: June 21, 2011

*WASHINGTON — President Obama will talk about troop numbers in Afghanistan when he makes a prime-time speech from the White House on Wednesday night. But behind his words will be an acute awareness of what $1.3 trillion in spending on two wars in the past decade has meant at home: a ballooning budget deficit and a soaring national debt at a time when the economy is still struggling to get back on its feet.

As Mr. Obama begins trying to untangle the country from its military and civilian promises in Afghanistan, his critics and allies alike are drawing a direct line between what is not being spent to bolster the sagging economy in America to what is being spent in Afghanistan — $120 billion this year alone.

On Monday, the United States Conference of Mayors made that connection explicitly, saying that American taxes should be paying for bridges in Baltimore and Kansas City, not in Baghdad and Kandahar.

The mayors’ group approved a resolution calling for an early end to the American military role in Afghanistan and Iraq, asking Congress to redirect the billions now being spent on war and reconstruction costs toward urgent domestic needs. The resolution, which noted that local governments cut 28,000 jobs in May alone, was the group’s first venture into foreign policy since it passed a resolution four decades ago calling for an end to the Vietnam War.

And in a speech on the Senate floor on Tuesday, Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, said: “We can no longer, in good conscience, cut services and programs at home, raise taxes or — and this is very important — lift the debt ceiling in order to fund nation-building in Afghanistan. **The question the president faces — we all face — is quite simple: Will we choose to rebuild America or Afghanistan? In light of our nation’s fiscal peril, we cannot do both.”
**Demonstrators describing themselves as “angry jobless citizens” said they would picket the Capitol on Wednesday to urge members of Congress to use any savings from Mr. Obama’s troop reductions to create more jobs. The group sponsoring the demonstration, the Prayer Without Ceasing Party, said in a statement on Tuesday that it was “urging the masses to call their congressmen and the president to ensure that jobs receive a top priority when the troops start returning to America.”

Spending on the war in Afghanistan has skyrocketed since Mr. Obama took office, to $118.6 billion in 2011. It was $14.7 billion in 2003, when President George W. Bush turned his attention and American resources to the war in Iraq.

The increase is easy to explain. When Mr. Obama took office, he vowed to aggressively pursue what he termed America’s “war of necessity” (Afghanistan) and to withdraw from America’s “war of choice” (Iraq). He has done so; the lines on Iraq and Afghanistan war spending crossed in 2010, when the United States spent $93.8 billion in Afghanistan versus $71.3 billion in Iraq, according to the Congressional Research Service.

But the White House is keenly aware that the president is heading into a re-election campaign; with the country’s jobless rate remaining high, topping 9 percent, his poll numbers on his handling of the domestic economy have plummeted.

“Do we really need to be spending $120 billion in a country with a G.D.P. that’s one-sixth that size?” asked Brian Katulis, a national security expert at the Center for American Progress, a policy group with close ties to the Obama administration.** “Most Americans would be shocked to know that we’re spending that kind of money for jobs programs for former Taliban, and would wonder where are our jobs programs for Detroit and Cleveland?”
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In 2010, Congress — at the Obama administration’s request — set aside $100 million to support programs in Afghanistan aimed at moving former insurgents off the battlefields and into the country’s mainstream economy. Those efforts — similar to what the Bush administration did in Iraq — have yet to bear much fruit; the 1,700 fighters who have enrolled in the reintegration program represent only a fraction of the estimated 20,000 to 40,000 Taliban insurgents, The New York Times reported Monday.

Most American aid bypasses the Afghan government and goes to international companies, a practice that, according to a June 8 report by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, can undercut the Afghan government and lead to redundant and unsustainable donor projects. But Obama administration officials complain that the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai has, thus far, been unwilling to tackle corruption in any meaningful way, making it hard to argue that it should get more money directly.

In Washington, the argument over whether the United States should be building bridges in Kandahar or Cleveland is bound to grow even louder as the 2012 election campaign heats up.

After Senator Manchin made his speech on Tuesday calling for an end to nation-building in Afghanistan, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, took to the floor to rebuke him, calling Mr. Manchin’s remarks characteristic of the “isolationist-withdrawal-lack-of-knowledge-of-history attitude that seems to be on the rise.”

But in Mr. McCain’s own Republican Party, which has historically been more supportive of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars than Democrats, there is clearly some queasiness about war spending during a period of economic distress.

**Four years ago, Representative Ron Paul of Texas was the only Republican presidential candidate raising concerns about the costs of the Afghanistan or Iraq wars. But last week, Mr. Paul was joined explicitly by another contender, Jon M. Huntsman Jr., the former governor of Utah and the Obama administration’s former ambassador to China, who said that the cost of a continued military presence was a leading factor in his belief that a major troop drawdown should begin in Afghanistan.
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“Very expensive boots on the ground may be something that is not critical for our national security needs,” Mr. Huntsman said.

Even when Mr. Obama does withdraw the bulk of troops from Afghanistan, Americans will still be footing the bill for years, argued William R. Keylor, an international relations professor at Boston University.

“The total cost of the war, the longest in American history and one that was paid for by borrowing rather than by increased taxation, should not be measured solely by the costs of financing the troops and the extensive aid programs administered by the State Department,” Mr. Keylor said. “It should also include long-term costs of the war, primarily veterans’ benefits for the returning soldiers, who will require medical and mental health services for many years to come. Long after the last troops depart from the country, that hidden part of the bill will come due.”

](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/22/us/politics/22costs.html?_r=1&hp)

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

Obama’s task: maintaining support for Afghan war

Re: Afghanistan-End Game!

Obama and Afghanistan – The Careful Management of Failure