Afghan War End Game

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

The child India cries, because it was being pinched by the bully when no one was watching. It also was pricking the biggest bully surreptitiously. Now the big bully understand why the child is crying. It’s too late for the small bully to cry as the entire schools know what’s going on. Though the child India is capable of standing up to the bully, it realized, it found an easier way to mess-up the bully while focusing on (or continue to muddle through) what’s is important for it’s future - economy and human resource development.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

What is your solution? Taliban? Without US and the West, the only way Pakistan can bring stability to Afghanistan is through Taliban. Taliban's return is not in anyone's interest, especially Pakistan's. It might be fun at first, with the current radicalization of the poor and low middle income groups in Pakistan, it is a dangerous game to play.

It will either turn Pakistan in to a radical basket case or the NW of Pakistan would like to join Afghan. The traditionally lawless and radical NW is even more radicalized with the parking of Taliban after US invasion of Afghan. This would make them want to join Afghanistan and create a greater Pushtunland (another land of pure or purer)

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

Sorry there was no Taliban at that time, only “freedom fighters”. Taliban is “Made in Pakistan, by Government of Pakistan (i.e. Armed forces)”, which they thought they are making it for the future of Pakistan’s. Unfortunately for them future of Pakistan lies in destruction of India.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

Civilian leadership has not proven that the they have the Military under their control. Let them prove that first before US can sit with any body.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

Ok the same people were freedom fighters when they suited American interests and terrorists when they don't figure in their interests in the world map now?

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

The Americans should mind ther own business the situation of the region will improve.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

Nope, these people were teaching and studying in the Madarasas of Pakistan.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ what were they studying there? Humanity?

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

As I pashtun from Mardan, I must say I dont like ISI and its policy towards afghanistan, KP, FATA and balochistan. Pakistan should realise to live peacefully with its self and its neighbours. The current day Afghanistan can not be compared with 2001. It has seen to certain degree of transformation in its political, economic and social sectors. Majority of the afghans do not like the taliban, unless pakistan forcefully or through any other technique impose it on them. For which they will hate us even more and this is something that we should avoid. People in Pakistan call Karzai mayor of kabul, but how about kayani and zardari are they not mayors of islamabad and pindi. Have they ever travelled to those area of wars in KP, FATA and balochistan. We say that afghanistan does not have any type of controle on its territory how about pakistan do we control the area form chitral up to gawador, well i don't think so.

Peace in afghanistan is the desire of pashtuns and baloch and they will benefit alot from it. We already have hostile eastern border and we don't want to have western hostile border. If pakistan continues the same policy this time around afghans will raise the issue of pashtunistan in full swing and trust me they have learned the game as well, because we taught them. They won't support the pashtuns they will rather support the creation of independent balochistan which is favourable for them in terms economic reasons and I think they will sign a treaty of friendship with them. Afghanistan has more potential of becoming a democracy and prosperous than pakistan. They have learned that army should not be part of the government and they have shown this recently by sacking two ministers for not taking any actions against pakistani rockets attacks on kunar and nooristan. The wazirs and the Kandaharis are the most dangerous warriors on earth and they have joined hands together against pakistan. The recent video by Hakimullah masood which is in pashto has declared war on pakistan by calling it a kafir country. The policies of pakistan has pushed pakistan to the brink of collapse.

I would rather call this tread, US withdrawal and pakistan game plan. As the game plan will be fought in pakistan this time and not in afghanistan. This is going to bleed pakistan quite badly and alot of innocent ppl will die. The net result will be that Balochistan will become an independent state, where as the pashtuns in FATA and Tribal areas will join afghanistan or either become independent state.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ we will see what happens, free Pashtunistan and Balochistan is circulating in maps for a very long time. The Americans are playing their games, and our rulers (and military) seems to be helping them achieve their goals. You are a pashtun and are being directly being affected by this, but being a Punjabi even I dont support our military's machinations (there are many more like me through out the country) regarding Balochistan and even their handling of the War in Terror issue. I believe that the peace in Afghanistan will be good for the region, any instability there will affect Pakistan as well. Pakistan will have to improve their relationship with Afghanistan, and try to tackle the militancy on our side, and now they will have to seriously tackle the constutional status of FATA, ways to revive the economy of the area, education and repatriation of the IDP's.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

You should also realise the that revenge is part of pashtun culture and i don't think so things are that simple. Alot of pashtuns have been targeted by pakistani army and they will have to taste the revenge from pashtun side. The reality of the day is that pakistan can not dare to take any actions against their taliban assets as it will turn it against them, so pakistan post 2014 is facing harder and difficult days where as I think afghanistan will be in a better position as they will international support and the interest of west together with Russia, China and India converge in Afghanistan. All these players excluding pakistan are not in favour of taliban ruling afghanistan once more. I am sorry to say this but taliban will be maintained in pakistan and in medium term it will weaken pakistan, its civil society and at the end USA will be asked by all interational powers to act, which they will do.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ Pakistan has already lost more than 35000 people in this war, at the moment Pakistan's policy in FATA is only operations, operations and more operations. No importance has been given to other avenues like economy, constitutional rights of the tribals, education, and so on. Any steps to revive the economy of the region and good governance might improve the situation there.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, the East and South of the country is still in virtual control of taleban and in the North there are fiefdoms of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Even the ISAF countries with all their economic and military might have come to the conclusion that the only way forward in Afghanistan is through a peace agreement with taleban.

As far as Zardari and Prime minister of Pakistan not visiting KP or Fata is concerned, I dont think they are interested in the issue. For them most important is to find out ways to plunder the country further, governance is the least of their worries.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

well Ali-sayed brother, the same fiefdoms also exist in pakistan look at karachi is that not a sort of fiefdoms of MQM and ANP. Rural punjab is being controlled by punjabi taliban and i dont think so south and east of afghanistan is in the hands of taliban. The current afghan army should not be under estimated, they have become a professional force and they are improving all the time. Previous mujahidden have filled the ranks and they have become professional. Another development in afghanistan in recent months is the uprising in Ghazni, Paktia, Laghman and Faryab by locals against taliban which has worried the talibans and it is called an unprising against punjab, as majority of taliban fighters either killed or captured are punjabi's. The afghans do not longer make the majority of the taliban fighters and it is people from pakistan and especially punjabi's.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ what are your thoughts about afghan governments writ in kunar, nuristan, ghazni, paktia and paktika? These are those areas which were never under control of ISAF. Reading western sources the situation of even helmand and kandahar dont seem that promising either. when Pakistan started operations in south Waziristan, Mohmand and upper dir Americans vacated their bases from the east and provided sanctuaries to TTP. I personally believe that Pakistan has had a fallout of the afghan war, and is being made a scape goat for the failings of afghan and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Having said that I believe that the army should forego any desire of strategic depth in afghanistan and instead go for friendship based upon mutual trust. The destiny of both countries is tied together through our shared history, any instability in Afghanistan has always had a bad impact on our region as a whole.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

how about all the destruction caused by ISI to Afghanistan human capital, infrastructure, ethnic violence etc? Don't you think that pakistan will have to pay a price, and that price is going to be very costly even expensive then 1971. The activities of ISI during the war with USSR is now appearing and alot of mujahideen commanders on regular basis speak out on afghan tv, which further infuriates afghan sentiments. Yesterday, former commander Amanullah from Gulbadin faction was on tv and the things he said about the roe of ISI in the war was just disgusting, one example ISI agents were encourgaing afghans to take arms against their government when they refused, the agents put shiit in the local mosque and blamed on the afghan government. This action killed over 200 ppl, this is only one example and i am sure there will be many more.

My friend, afghans will never forget what pakistan has done to them and if they have the chance to do the same they won't hesitate.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ well if Pakistan and Afghanistan will keep on their negativities going, it will hurt no one else but themselves. It's about time the civil societies of both countries force their governments to abandon these futile covert wars against each other and for a change focus on the well being of their respective populations.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

agree with you, but afghans have suffered more than pakistani's so how do you compensate for that.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

^ bro, this is a vicious cycle, the sooner it ends the better it will be for both countries.

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

According to John Allen ten districts of Afghanistan constitute about 50 % of the total violence in the country and 9 of them are in Helmand and Kandahar. I am sure the East does not figure in as ISAF does not have that much military presence there.
What Surge? Afghanistan’s Most Violent Places Stay Bad, Despite Extra Troops | Danger Room | Wired.com

When President Obama surged 30,000 additional U.S. troops into Afghanistan in 2010, the new forces were concentrated overwhelmingly on two volatile areas of southern Afghanistan: Helmand and Kandahar Provinces. Now, as the troop surge is practically over, those provinces still rank as the most violent in the entire country.

**According to Marine Gen. John Allen, the commander of the war, ten districts around Afghanistan account for fully half of the insurgent violence in the country. (Afghanistan has 405 districts.) According to a breakdown provided to Danger Room by the Pentagon, six of those districts — Sangin, Now Zad, Nad Ali, Kajaki, Musa Qalah, and Nahr-e Saraj — are in Helmand Province, where the Marines started fighting a costly and grueling battle with the Taliban in 2009. Three more of them — Maiwand, Panjwei and Zharay — are in Kandahar, the Taliban’s birthplace and the scene of similarly arduous Army fighting from 2010 to the present. (The final district, Pul-e Alam, is in the eastern Logar Province.)
**
Spokespeople for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), NATO’s military command in Afghanistan, did not immediately respond to inquiries seeking elaboration. But there are around 80,000 U.S. troops remaining in Afghanistan, and the remaining 10,000 surge troops are due to leave the country by the end of September. The persistence of the violence in the provinces they bled and died to pacify raises questions about the durability of what the U.S. will leave behind in Afghanistan.

The Marine Corps, for reasons that remain obscure, decided in 2009 to focus its fight on sparsely-populated Helmand Province. They’ve fought hard and recently in Sangin and Kajaki; and in July 2011, ISAF boasted to Danger Room that violence in Nad Ali was down 70 percent from the previous year. With the surge forces receding, the Marines now find themselves spread thin: Marines have only a single company for each of the districts of Now Zad and Musa Qaleh.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran, a Washington Post associate editor, focused much of his recent book about the war, Little America,](http://www.rajivc.com/) on the Marine fight for Helmand. While he noted that several of the violent districts aren’t ones where the Marines donated the majority of their focus in the province — some are the responsibility of British forces — the overrepresentation of Helmand in Afghanistan’s most violent districts “raises some fundamental questions about the Marine narrative that they fundamentally transformed Helmand province,” Chandrasekaran said, particularly Now Zad, Musa Qaleh and Sangin, places where the Marines have claimed major progress. “If six of the ten most violent districts in the country are still in Helmand, it does call into question the sustainability of some of their gains.”

Kandahar, on the other hand, is one of Afghanistan’s most populous regions — not to mention the traditional home of the Taliban. And there ISAF has some good news to report: the United Nations found that civilian casualties declined in 2012, although they remain triple the rate of civilian deaths in 2008. Kandahar City, the site of intense fighting in 2010 and 2011, is no longer one of the hottest of hot spots. Neither is the adjoining Argandab River Valley, where (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/i-flattened-afghan-villages/) that the Taliban boobytrapped.

But coalition forces fought hard in Kandahar’s Maiwand and Panjwei provinces — where the fight grew so frustrating and American leadership became so weak that a band of rogue, sadistic soldiers formed a “Kill Team” to take revenge. One Army veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan who recently ended a year’s tour in Kandahar described it as the most arduous thing he has ever done in his life.

Nonetheless, after two years of combat in Kandahar and Helmand, those provinces still account for an outsize proportion of Afghan insurgent violence.

Nor is violence is down significantly in Afghanistan as a whole. Allen, speaking to Pentagon reporters on Thursday, said the overall insurgent violence in the country has dipped three percent from this time last year — a figure he conceded “may not be statistically significant.” The previous year, ISAF said that insurgent attacks remained basically level with summer 2010 levels — when the full complement of surge troops arrived in Afghanistan. The purpose of the surge was to reverse the momentum of the Taliban in order to hand over a stable Afghanistan to the Afghan government. If measured by the rate of insurgent activity, the surge at most dented the Taliban’s momentum.

Allen doesn’t see it that way. He contended to Pentagon reporters that U.S., Afghan and allied troops pushed the Taliban out of former redoubts and essentially forced them into small clusters. He cited the ten districts accounting for half of the violence in the country as a positive indicator.
It is doubtful that the post-surge U.S. presence in Afghanistan will take those ten violent districts head-on. By the fall, the Marine presence in Helmand will fall by 10,000, leaving 7,000 Marines in the province. After the summer, the likely focus of the Army-led task forces in Kandahar will be on consolidating security gains and mentoring Afghan troops to prepare to secure the future. That future, Allen told reporters, will not be an peaceful one: after NATO ends its combat mission in 2014, Afghan forces must continue to “deal with violence.”

Re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

US flattened whole villages in Kandahar.

‘Why I Flattened Three Afghan Villages’ | Danger Room | Wired.com](http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/i-flattened-afghan-villages/)

When the day began for Lt. Col. David Flynn on Oct. 6, Taliban insurgents were using three southern Afghanistan hamlets as bomb factories. By the time the next day ended, Tarok Kolache, Khosrow Sofla and Lower Babur had been eradicated from the valley where they once stood.

**Flynn had ordered tens of thousands of pounds of bombs to rain down on the villages. Tarok Kolache was completely flattened, and there wasn’t much left of the other two.
**
**Flynn says that he had little choice but to take the extreme step. The Taliban had rigged bombs all through the compounds in the villages, and placed tons of explosives in the vegetated fields nearby.
**
Efforts at clearing the villages of homemade bombs during the previous three months had failed. The fighters had evicted the villagers from their land, telling them, “you can’t get to the fields this year,” in preparation for the U.S. troop surge. Few residents still retained hope that they’d ever get to move back home.

“We never went in with the mindset that we’re going to flatten the villages,” Flynn tells Danger Room. “I have friends in this community now. The last thing I’m trying to do is wreck my friends’ lives.”

**But he did flatten the villages — a decision that’s spurred heated debate since an analyst close to Gen. David Petraeus, Paula Broadwell, blogged earlier this month about the destruction of Tarok Kolache with 49,200 lbs. of rockets and bombs.
**
Flynn discloses that it wasn’t just Tarok Kolache that got hit: Khosrow Sofla and Lower Babur, located nearby in the Arghandab River Valley, were pounded nearly as badly. Several buildings in Khosrow Sofla are still standing, Flynn says, but Lower Babur is “closer to Tarok Kolache, though not completely eliminated.”

Now, the villages are being rebuilt, a process that’s just begun and which probably won’t be finished by the time Flynn’s battalion completes its tour in the spring. It remains to be seen whether Afghans will remember Flynn for taking the villages back from the Taliban — or completing the process of their destruction.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2011/01/500x_custom_1295504942192_kolache2.jpg

It wasn’t Flynn’s first time in southern Afghanistan. A Massachusetts native, he served a previous tour at the nearby Kandahar Airfield in 2004 and 2005, when there wasn’t much of either a fight or an American presence. He read Lester Grau’s acclaimed history of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, in part to learn whatnot to do.

Driving through the Arghandab back then and seeing its thick vegetation — perfect for hiding bombs — he recalls thinking, “Holy crap, what must the Russians have gone through…. I was thinking thinking back then, I’m glad we weren’t in that kind of fight. And now, seven years later, here I was.”

That factored into his mind heavily in 2010, when he learned his battalion and their Afghan partners, known collectively as Combined Joint Task Force 1-320, would be one of the first surge troops to clear out parts of Kandahar. But it was one thing to visualize the insurgents’ improvised explosive device (IED) tactics — and another to experience them.

“I didn’t anticipate the density of IEDs that we saw,” he says. From July to October, the 1-320th fought its way through an area about 2 kilometers long and 6 kilometers wide — and found 200 improvised explosive devices. Later, his men would discover caches of another 200 Taliban bombs. “There was an IED about every 60 meters [200 feet] that you’re out there walking,” he says, “in the gardens, on the roads, in the walls, in the villages, in the buildings.”

And it felt like it. Flynn’s plan was to push south and east to the Arghandab River, through villages the Taliban had controlled for three years. The insurgents had planted an ungodly number of bombs in the interim.

The 1-320th’s first real test came July 30, at a canal crossing it needed to control if it was to gain access to those villages. The fight, which the unit christened the Battle of Bakersfield, took four days. “We had three killed the first day and eight wounded,” Flynn says, “and we lost another 12 wounded during the next couple days of fighting.”

What he didn’t see also stuck with him: people. “The friendlies dispersed. They went to the four winds,” Flynn says. The Taliban had pushed the populace out, away from the pomegranate trees that provided their livelihood. Some went to Kabul, others to Kandahar, figuring that the area’s history of never falling to a foreign power meant the Taliban was here to stay. Others — including Tarok Kolache’s malek, or de facto leader — went to a village near Flynn’s base called Jelawar.

Those displaced locals became a source of information for Flynn that summer. He wouldn’t have known how densely placed the homemade bombs were without them.

Before a planned raid into Lower Babur with Special Forces and Afghan commandos, “people literally came up to us and said we can’t go back there. We were with the police on a partnered operation, and they literally told the police, ‘Don’t go down into the gardens, there are Taliban IEDs [there].’ Go where it’s wet, not where it’s dry, if you have to go.”

Using drones and what he calls “multiple sensors,” Flynn confirmed that the Taliban had turned the compounds in the vacated villages into bomb factories. “Pattern of life” analysis showed militants coming in and out, but no civilian activity. In some cases, he could see homemade explosives drying on the rooftops. When he did, he’d call in an air strike or a blast from an attack helicopter, leveling the building.

But as the months ground on, that didn’t stop the proliferation of the bombs. All in all, the 1-320th suffered seven killed and 83 wounded, with nearly 70 percent of those casualties coming from homemade bombs and mines.

To clarify something from Broadwell’s post, Flynn sent his men into the villages to attempt to clear them out — but there were just too many bombs. A July raid on Khosrow Sofla was repulsed by the density of the explosive charges. A Special Forces sergeant told Flynn it was the “most sophisticated IED network he had ever seen.”

A different clearing operation had to be turned back after his men discovered there were more bombs than they had material with which to safely detonate them.
That led Flynn to seek out alternatives. “It was comforting to know” that the civilians had fled, because “we [could] employ the full suite of our weapons systems” — everything from grenades to .50-cal machine guns to attack helicopters and close air support — “without worrying about killing civilians.”

The alternatives before him were stark: He could take out the buildings. Or he could keep moving in on foot, with more of his men getting maimed or killed. And if he cleared the villages without taking out the buildings, he couldn’t know that Afghans would be safe moving back into them, since the Taliban had rigged them to detonate.

So by late September, Flynn called together Tarok Kolache’s malek and the other area residents to let them know that he was planning, essentially, large-scale demolitions. “We didn’t show them a plan and say, ‘We’re going to destroy everything in the village, is everyone OK with that?’” he says.

“But they were made aware there would be significant collateral damage in the village. People didn’t say, ‘Yeah, blow up the village,’ but they kind of understood — they’d been at war for 30 years. This was the biggest fight that had gone on in the district.”

A reporter from the Daily Mail, who Flynn says wasn’t at the meeting, reported that Flynn threatened them: Either turn in the homemade bombs, or he’d blow up their houses.

Flynn says that never happened: Instead, he told them that if residents couldn’t tell him where exactly the bombs were, he would have no way of disposing of them without blowing up the buildings. Khosrow Sofla’s malek registered the only concern, Flynn says: He wanted the soldiers to use a bulldozer to get rid of the bombs, so the pomegranate trees wouldn’t be harmed.[SUP]1
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On October 6, once Flynn was satisfied he had sufficient intelligence about which buildings had explosives in them and the area was cleared of civilians, the air campaign began. Tarok Kolache got 49,200 pounds of bombs dropped on it — basically, 25 1-ton-pound bombs to take out “over 45″ buildings.

Flynn says he’s not sure how much Khasrow Sofla and Lower Babur got, but says it was comparable.

He reported his plan up to brigade headquarters, and from there it went to the regional commander, Flynn believes the sprawling office running the day-to-day war from Kabul, known as the ISAF Joint Command, knew of it as well.

During the bombing, Flynn kept an eye out for civilians and saw none. “We had overhead drones watching the strikes, multiple sensors watching the strikes,” he says. “We probably even got film somewhere, because we were anticipating the Taliban coming out and saying something.”

On previous operations, “a long line of elders” would complain if a civilian died. “In October, when we destroyed the Taliban sanctuary, I didn’t get anyone at my door complaining,” he says.

But that may not be enough. Some locals have expressed dissatisfaction with the operation: Even an Afghan cop told an NPR reporter in Tarok Kolache on Monday that he was “very disappointed and very angry” that the village is no more.

Flynn says his strategy will be vindicated when the battalion stays in the valley — he’s set up 17 small bases for the 38 villages he patrols — and rebuilds what it destroyed. “I told them, ‘We can rebuild your homes. I can’t give you your leg back, I can’t give you your life back,’” –the consequence of Afghans returned to booby-trapped houses — “but I promise, I will rebuild the homes.”

The building is just getting underway, including the foundation of Tarok Kolache’s new mosque. But problems remain in the Arghandab. While the Taliban appear to have largely left the district for nearby areas after the October clearing operations (Flynn estimates there are still a dozen active militants in the area) the battalion is still “pulling out [homemade bombs] by the dozens.”

And just last week, the Taliban assassinated Khosrow Sofla’s malek. Some Afghans tell Flynn they’re too scared to move back into buildings that the battalion left standing. There’s USAID program to re-plant 4,000 pomegranate trees, but that’s “still not a great deal for the people, because that tree’s gonna take five years to produce any fruit.”

If he had to do it all over again, Flynn says he would still have destroyed the buildings, because he sees little alternative. But he wouldn’t have released the before-and-after pictures to Broadwell, because they seemed to imply that Flynn thought flattening the village was sufficient. On the other hand, he says, the pictures show “the truth. That should tell you I’m not trying to hide anything or be deceitful.”

Flynn is home at Fort Campbell on R&R before finishing up his tour. He says he can already take “a degree of satisfaction” in rereading Grau and comparing his actions to the Russians.

“We’re not there to terrorize the population,” he says. “The people talk about the Russians bombing their villages and say the Russians never did anything for us. They say, ‘That’s the difference between you and the Russians.”

Note 1. The original version of this story confused the malek of Khosrow Sofla with the malek of Tarok Kolache at the late September meeting.