A critical look at the Pak economy

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

[quote]
If any ignorant wants to get fooled by his lies than its upto that person, but for those that are not fools ... they should see the true figures that State Bank and stats department publishes and updates every few days.
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ofcourse sate department are not goona call em selves bad lol

what he is telling u in the article is that political govt had benefited pakistan every time, its the dictators who make suffer this country to the worse

~~Advantages of having a Multi~~
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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Captain 1:
Well, if you want to know how this water projects happened that increased Pakistan electricity generation capacity as well as agriculture … go to this site and read it carefully … and yea, please not for just criticizing for nothing … but just to learn what is happening … because Pakistan is our country (not mine or yours), and it is best for you to know what is happening and to apprecitate that.

[What I know, not a single dam was built or even started during the corrupt period of 1988-1999 … I might be wrong, but if you know one, please let me know with reference].

In 2001 (2nd year of Musharraf rule) … Pakistan under President Musharraf started a Vision 2025 project related to Pakistan water development

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/vision2025/default.asp

And these are **some of the dams and water projects Musharraf government planned to start and finish before 2005 under vision 2025. **Many started and got completed, many started and work is going on, many would start in near future, whereas many looked into but vision expects them to get started and completed before 2025 (like Kalabagh dam and so on).

I think there are over 950 hydro-power projects on different rivers across Pakistan (some already in operation). Please find them here (Projects would show you electricity generation capacity of them projects too). The list of projects are so long … 950 mentioned here that I do not like to put the names and generation capacity of each project here :slight_smile:

http://www.pakistanhydro.com/rivers.asp?rivers=All

I am putting ‘top 20’ out of 950 mentioned … here with their electricity generation capacity, there status at present … and where they are:

1 Bunji Hydropower Project 5400 MW (electricity generation capacity)
Prefeasibility (Status .. at present) … Northern Areas

2 [Basha Dam Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Basha Dam) 4500 MW
Feasibility … Northern Areas

3 Skardu Hydropower Project 4000 MW
Prefeasibility … Northern Areas

4 [Kalabagh Dam Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Kalabagh Dam) 3600 MW
Under Implementation with Public Sector … Punjab

5 [Tarbela Dam Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Tarbela Dam) 3478 MW
In Operation … NWFP

6 Dasu Hydropower Project 2712 MW
Prefeasibility … NWFP

7 [Ghazi Brotha Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Ghazi Brotha) 1450 MW
In Operation … Punjab

8 Patan Hydropower Project 1172 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

9 Phandar Hydropower Project 1172 MW
Feasibility … Northern Areas

10 Thakot Hydropower Project 1043 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

11 [Mangla Dam Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Mangla Dam) 1000 MW
In Operation … Azad Jammu & Kashmir

12 Yugo Hydropower Project 1000 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … Northern Areas

13 Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project 969 MW
Feasibility … Azad Jammu & Kashmir

14 [Chor Nala C-II Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Chor Nala C-II) 728I MW
dentification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

15 Yulbo Hydropower Project 710 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … Northern Areas

16 Rahkiot Hydropower Project 670 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … Northern Areas

17 [Chor Nale C-I Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Chor Nale C-I) 649 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

18 Tungas Hydropower Project 625 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … Northern Areas

19 Kargah Hydropower Project 567 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

20 [Spat gah middle Hydropower Project](http://www.pakistanhydro.com/northern/detail.asp?projectname=Spat gah middle) 546 MW
Identification / Reconnaissance … NWFP

//////\\\\\\\\\ Murgha //////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\
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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Another excellent article Zakk, great find.

Unfortunately, this is probably still not enough to convince any of the die hard Mush supporters...

But honestly, I fear for this country if it doesnt make some serious changes...

~~Advantages of having a Multi~~
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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Saleem, you can argue all you want, but far more credible people then you agree with this interpretation of the Pak economy.

Are you telling us that EVERY qualified economist who doesnt agree with you or your biased views on Musharaf and his govts "achievments" is being fooled or lying?!?!?

The people who you claim to be lying look at the same figures you do... Looking at these figures they make far more accurate assesments then you do...

So excuse me if I agree with them, and find your biased view nothing more then just that, ill informed bias.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

a GOOD point - how does one judge the economy? its very easy for someone to write but are they taking all facts into consideration? is their experience of the economy based from their writing room?

every writer and article has its own slant and its own agenda. iam no expert on economic affairs but the last 6/7 years people say the economy has grown - thats nt becauce of the army but because of mushy's good choices at the time.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

It's amusing how Musharraf supporters go to the extent of calling people corrupt or PPP supporters who challenge the economic successes of Musharraf.

The writer has admitted to growth in the banking sector, however thats been driven by liberalising lending and has led to a major increase in internal debt. Other sectors have stagnated during Aziz's time.

Many free marketers are opposed to state sector involvement but free market without proper regulatory frameworks leads to monopolies and manipulated price markets like the country is suffering from nowadays with everything from wheat to sugar shortages.

With reference to selling state owned enterprises, PTCL being a specific example..PTCL was not a loss making organization and ultimately to discredit the process even more it was sold to Etilstat a state owned telecom company!

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Zakk Dubai based companies are hardly your example of a state run organization. They're a tiny country with a huge surplus of resources, who have foreigners running these companies as basically asset management. Etisalat doesnt typify a state organization.

The idea of privitization is not to get rid of loss making assets. It is to reduce the footprint of government in people's lives, and remove these functions from the nepotism, inefficiency and corruption rife in the public sphere, when people are not motivated by competition and profit. Thats a good thing, given how corrupt our government has always been, and will be for the foreseeable future. Is there any doubt that for every PTCL and PSO there are a hundred PIAs in Pakistan? Take the port authorities, a prime example of something that should be privatized simply to spare the people from suffering from a corrupt, inefficient state function where they have to pay bribes to every man in the command chain, starting from the janitor.

Furthermore to say that something is not loss-making means exactly nothing, since it doesnt preclude the fact that something could be better still and provide better services to consumers.

If PTV can be made profitable, do you figure we dont need all those private channels after that?

Regulation is not equal to state ownership, anti-trust laws etc can keep resources fairly in the private sector without proposing a view where "Private sector is good in producing those commodities, which are low technology and require small capital investments." and the government does the rest.

FYI all semi-decent high-technology enterprizes in Pakistan, barring defence industries, are private. Some, such as the cellphone networks and the broadband/ WiFi services require significant investment, and the state's equivalent companies were performing abysmally in the same field. ALL decent hospitals in Pakistan are private for good reason. Infact this is not a Pakistan specific thing, I dont know any low-tech OR high-tech commodity that is not better produced and better innovated in the private sector anywhere in the world.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

the flour shortage crises is another example of where the government involvement made things worse. There is a shortage crises, okay. What does the government do? Purchase exensive wheat and sell it at a cheap rate in Pakistan. Further incentivizing the smuggling, which is a reason why there was a shortage to begin with.

Lower taxes so that domestic markets are more attractive, Pakistan definitely has more dough to spend than Afghanistan and beyond, all things the same theres no real reason why someone would want to incur the additional cost of smuggling the goods.

The huge losses incurred from the govt involvement, who finances that? We do. How? Through a budget deficit. Make atta cheaper for now (or try and fail), pay for it through the nose for the next few generations.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

:hehe: you also make blind judgments I guess… probably you didn’t read my comments where I appreciate the development good that happens, if I believed Pakistan would never make progress I probably wouldn’t even be planning on moving to Pakistan unlike some people who stay thousands of mile and never plan to return.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

I will visit the site later today or when I get a chance, thanks. The reason I laughed at the comment of excess electricity is that even when we had so called excess we still had big time load shedding and we are still facing the same menace. I checked one of the websites which still shows that Pakistan has excess production of electricity and I find it as a joke.

I will also try to visit sites to see if they have the information I was looking for i.e. break down of power generation, when it increased, how it was increased and when was the project started which resulted in production increase.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

rav we are getting into a broader discussion on the role of govt and what you and I see as its core role. I don't claim the state can ever compete with private enterprise and inn innovation and efficiency. However it is ultimately state owned organizations that have to cover for unregulated market frces (Qabzas would be a better way of describing them in a pak context) . So when the Pak govt has to evacuate Pakistanis in kuwait it uses PIA, when it needs to ensure flour is sold at the right price it uses the utility store corporation. In Pakistan whats happened is the state run enterprises are badly run, and regulatory organisations are notorously inept and politicised.. has led to a generation of crony capitalists.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy


I do generally criticize just for the sake of it. Personally I am interested in learning about the power generation capacity, consumption etc. Whenever I goto Pakistan I face the loadshedding, this time I went there and on one day we had no electricity for 8 damn hours straight... and I got geniunely interested to know if there is a way I can setup a power generation plant to help the country.... I don't know if I can contribute a drop of electric power and if the country (govt) would be interested in the drop.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Well, why we read that supply is more than demand and that there is still load sheading?

Pakistan in 1947 was even less developed than Afghanistan and had worse infrastructure than Afghanistan. Almost all of Balochistan, most of NWFP and Sindh, and large part of Punjab had almost no mentionable infrastructure. Apart of couple of industrial units (I think it was in cement) and one university (in Lahore), one major road network (GT road) and developed canal network in Punjab, a small port at Karachi, there was nothing mentionable.

Still, Pakistan is under-developed country where huge chunk of population have no electricity supply. So, when Pakistan increase electricity generation, Pakistan at the same time keep bringing different areas in the electricity supply network. Thus, electriciy shortage is always there and would stay until whole of Pakistan get electricty plus population starts stabilising.

Why electricity consumption lacks behind generation? The reason is that at every plcce where electricity reaches, there is increase in demand every year (due to natural population increase as well as new migration because area is considered developed ... especially cities). Now, this new demands needs new and better distribution network as loading old network with new and fast increasing demand is impossible ... and so, load shedding happens (especially at times when there is high electricity demands).

Another thing is that ... demand is also increasing very fast as country develops and become richer (especially during last 8 years) and that means ... today Pakistan is also experiencing shortage of electricity generation even when new capacity is created, hence load shedding.

[Note: Electricity in Western Balochistan is not supplied by Pakistan but Iran supplies there. Reason is that Pakistan electricity supply infrastructure has not reached that area and Iran took the responsibility to supply electricty there since long time. I believe that when Gawder would get developed, most likely Pakistan would be able to get electicity for Gawder too from Iran].

Karachi is different:

Actually, Pakistan has dual electricity supply network.

KESC supplies Electricity to Karachi (and unfortunately at twice the price than what other part of Pakistan gets ... I think this is happenign since Ayub Khan time ... could be earlier).

WAPDA supply electricity to other parts of Pakistan (at normally less than half the price people of Karachi gets their electricity).

Karachi with 400000 people in 1947 had very little electricity supply but also demand per head was not that high too (as per head consumption was very little).

Karachi today with 16 million people (40 times that of 1947) needs huge electricity supply especially with huge increase of consumption per head.

Karachi population is increasing very fast ... (around 3 percent natural growth plus new arrivals from other parts of Pakistan to look for job)

That means two problems: Demand of electricity is increasing very fast every year (more these days, as city is developing very fast and also per head consumption is increasing fast, plus new industries are demanding more electricity)

Production of new electricity generation capacity plus needs for new distribution network not only needs time but cost huge money.

It is believed that over 40 percent of electricity get stolen in Karachi, especially at places settled by poor coming to city to earn their living and are not regularised by authority ... but since sometime, even some amongst settled population is stealing electricity. That means, supply of electricity without getting paid for it, means no money for maintaining and investment, means difficultly in spending money in generating electricity for the city as well as for replacing or rehauling distribution network (even wire and transformers needs money and those that work to change wire and transformers also are paid .. no one works free, means no money is paid for electricity (or whatever) ... nothing moves).

Hence, major cause of Karachi load shedding is .. stealing of electricity by thiefs causing lack of resources ... increase in demands (very high increase during last 8 years), shortage of electricity generation capacity (because of fund as well as time) and old distribution network that could not take up the load of demand and thus burning down or tripping every now and then,

I do not mean to say that there is easy solution. Only time (years) and fast development (over several years) would cure the problem (that could stagnate easily if and when corrupts like NS and BB come back to power again).

I think that for fast development of the country, population movement has to stop ... development has to get speeded up and corruption has to go.

[Pakistan should bring laws that anyone in government service or those that ever get into the corridor of power or in government (all people's representative, at lowest level) are found living beyond their known means, should be porsecuted and had to tell their means, or get hanged ... plus all their assets should get confiscated].

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Why is it that despite the econoic boom, Mush hasnt added a single MW of energy to the grid in so many years?

The crisis was looming for years, and suddenly the govt realizes its a crisis? They are giving out car loans like there's no tommorow and yet no one consdiered the fuel and energy needs of an economy growing at 6-7 percent a year?!?

Who should be blamed if not Mush?

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

You mean generation lags behind consumption (more consumption less generation), correct?

[quote]
Another thing is that ... demand is also increasing very fast as country develops and become richer (especially during last 8 years) and that means ... today Pakistan is also experiencing shortage of electricity generation even when new capacity is created, hence load shedding.
[/quote]

If I remember correctly, someone posted a news article saying 16,000 villages got electricity. If infrastructure of cities is not good enough to support the deman then why add more infrastructure which will add more to the cost and as you admitted the price difference of Karachi vs rest of the country it means providing electricity to other areas will not be as profitable/sustainable.

[quote]
[Note: Electricity in Western Balochistan is not supplied by Pakistan but Iran supplies there. Reason is that Pakistan electricity supply infrastructure has not reached that area and Iran took the responsibility to supply electricty there since long time. I believe that when Gawder would get developed, most likely Pakistan would be able to get electicity for Gawder too from Iran].
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No wonder Baluchis cry of being neglected.

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KESC supplies Electricity to Karachi (and unfortunately at twice the price than what other part of Pakistan gets ... I think this is happenign since Ayub Khan time ... could be earlier).
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Are you referring to actual Rs/kWh or additional charges that Karachiites have to pay like FAC (which are probably blamed for recovering charges for electricity that is stolen).

What is better? To provide electricity to villages and cut-down electricity from cities (load-shedding)?

To improve existing infrastructure in cities (which are probably more profitable) or add more infrastructure outside cities?

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

You are probably saying it from the article "not a single MW added", but as Sa1eem mentioned quite a few dams were built which are generating power... unless you can negate this information (like no power is actually being generated from dams etc.).

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

No ... consumption lags behind generation in Pakistan ... and that is why you will see that Pakistan consumption is less then generation.

[It also means that when generation increases than consumption lags behind ... but when new areas get included in supply network and demand increases in already supplied area ... generation gets short].

[quote]
If I remember correctly, someone posted a news article saying 16,000 villages got electricity. If infrastructure of cities is not good enough to support the deman then why add more infrastructure which will add more to the cost
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Supply to villages that have no electricity is good politically :) ... plus when generation capaciy increases than why deprive them? ... true that it cuases shortage in already supplied areas but that is called ... share the good and suffer some shortage ... rather have a good time while others have nothing :)

[quote]
and as you admitted the price difference of Karachi vs rest of the country it means providing electricity to other areas will not be as profitable/sustainable.
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Well, high cost of electricity to Karachi is due to other reason. I will try to answer you with your next question about Karachi cost of electricity.

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No wonder Baluchis cry of being neglected.
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Well, Baluchis should not feel neglected because in areas where they are getting electicity from Iran, they do not get load shedding. Plus that areas are so far from Pakistan main electricity grid that if those areas were made to wait than they would not be getting electricity at all (I think city Turbat also gets electricity from Iran).

[On the other hand, development work done in Balochistan during Musharraf government is several fold more than what work done there during 1947 to 1999. One big work is to bring whole of Balochistan under proper Pakistani rule ... free from Sardar .. as before 1999, 95 percent of Balochs had no court to go as their sardar was law. Today, almost 100 percent of Balochs can take even their sardar (at least on paper) to court and sue even their sardar ... using laws of Pakistan that sees sardar and ordinary Baloch equal.]

[quote]
Are you referring to actual Rs/kWh or additional charges that Karachiites have to pay like FAC (which are probably blamed for recovering charges for electricity that is stolen).
[/quote]

Karachi gets electricity from KESC ... and all KESC electricity comes from fossil fuel, that costs a lot. That means, cost of electricity that Karachi gets is higher because all electricity that comes from hydro-power projects belong to WAPDA that provides electricity to rest of Pakistan.

When I wrote that Karachi gets electricity at higher price .. I did not meant that KESC cost of electricity is same as WAPDA.

At present, I think WAPDA electricity is mostly from Hydro-power projects and that cost very little and that is why WAPDA supply to rest of Pakistan cheap electricity ... but if KESC would have been made part of WAPDA and supply cost would have got even out than Karachi would not have had to pay high cost of electricity .. plus shortage would have been less too (at the moment WAPDA sells electricity to KESC and they do that if they think they have access electricity ... sometime they are forced too ... but that sale is also after extra profit to WAPDA).

[quote]
What is better? To provide electricity to villages and cut-down electricity from cities (load-shedding)?

To improve existing infrastructure in cities (which are probably more profitable) or add more infrastructure outside cities?
[/quote]

Brother, I did told you one big reason of load shedding, and that is not short of electricity generation capacity, but it is load on existing distribution network .. and that means increase in demand more than not only electricity generation capacity but more than what existing distribution network can bear the load, hence transformer burning out or supply tripping. This has increased during last 8 years becasue country has developed very fast and thus demand increased very fast.

Just imagine .... I gave you figures that: ...
1947-1989 ... 40 GWh of electricity generation
1989-1999 ... 22 GWh added to electricity generation in 11 years = 62 GWh
1999-2007 ... around 40 GWh added to electricity generation in last 8 years (almost same as what got added between 1947-1989) ... still there is shortage of electricity at places (reason: during last 8 years, Pakistan economy growth was unprecedeted).

I think that it is matter of opinion (provide electricity to places that have no electricity .. or spend on infrastructure of existing supplied places). For many, it is better to provide electricity to villages as that is politically and humanly right. If one have two bread and two kids, than it is better to share the bread, rather give one kid his full whatever he needs and then if any left than give it to the other kid. Its best to deprive both a bit than to fulfil need of one, deprive other completely.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Bangali sahab did! Infact he said that beyond low-tech, low-capital stuff, private enterprise has no role to play. That is the criticism I lay on the author.

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However it is ultimately state owned organizations that have to cover for unregulated market frces (Qabzas would be a better way of describing them in a pak context) .

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I dont argue for complete deregulation, ensure against collusion/price-fixing etc, bas. Dont be responsible for providing flour, but dont tax people/borrow money from others in their name in order to do a failed job of providing flour either.

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So when the Pak govt has to evacuate Pakistanis in kuwait it uses PIA,

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Theres many countries that dont have state owned airlines, yet Im sure they'd be able to evacuate their people. If nothing else, charter a plane!

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In Pakistan whats happened is the state run enterprises are badly run, and regulatory organisations are notorously inept and politicised.. has led to a generation of crony capitalists.
[/QUOTE]

When everyones corrupt you cant trust anyone! And I was going to write a whole bit on how free or freeer markets disincentivize corruption and smaller govts can do their limited roles better... but yes.. thats a different topic.

My point is, its not necessarily a bad thing to privitize profitable state institutions, its a philosophical difference, since profitability can be a non-factor, depending on your school of thought. Also Bangali sahab isnt the best economist I've ever read, given his thoughts on areas where private enterprise does well.

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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Dear Saleem brother....with due apologies to you...please do not make these sensational statements regarding electricity rates being twice as expensive in Karachi compared to Punjab....without any proof....I maintain houses as well as run industries in both the regions and can assure you the rates are more or less same....energy being a bigger problem in Punjab for the time being because of the gas supplies totally shut down in Punjab for industries for last three weeks while Karachi industries are getting gas supplies without problem...most of the large scale industry in the country generates electricity from gas nowadays...

Infact Wapda is in a way subsidizing KESC as the later buys electricity from WAPDA and wants to buy only during peak hours....and to supply electricity to KESC Wapda has to install extra capacity only for supply during peak hours to Karachi....costing a lot extra to WAPDA....infact rest of Pakistan is paying for Karachi consumers...

Dear brother....I know you have a lot of bias when it comes to MQM....the report of assasinated ex MD of KESC is still with Fedreral Government ....where he accused MQM directly responsible for the condition of KESC....as the line losses incurred by KESC are over 40%....and this gentleman before getting assasinated put up a report that consumers were not responsible for this theft....infact they pay more than they should....but there are many no go areas for KESC staff where MQM ghundas collect monthly charges from kunda consumers to be sent to their don on monthly basis in London....even kunda consumers generally pay more than they should but to these ghundas...

Stop thinking Punjab is responsible for your electricity crisis....more than 40% of the money you pay as a consumer in Karachi as your electricity bill ends up with your favorite don in London you Karachites are keeping as our most expensive pet....who will assasinate anyone who will raise a voice...against him...

The Random Thread
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Re: A critical look at the Pak economy

Ignoring your English comprehension, how will you stop migration of population from one area to another without removing economic disparity between the regions...specially interior Sind/Baluchistan and Karachi.....from Punjab there is a reverse migration from Karachi for last many years...also how will you ask native Sindhis not to come to Karachi....a land which actually belongs to them for last many centuries...