Re: 4th Test - Eng vs Pak - Oval, 17th-21st Aug.
I agree with first post that Pakistan win will be dependent on Umpire fairness, or in other words if equal number of contentious decision go in favor of both teams, and secondly on Pakistan catches and run outs.
As far as team changes are concern, I think Pakistan should bring in FARHAT, HAFEEZ, RAZZAQ and AKHTAR for BUTT, UMAR, IQBAL and SAMI. If AKHTAR is not ready then Pakisan should stay with same 4 bowlers as from last test. Otherwise logic for these changes is:
Farhat seems in better touch with bat compare to Butt, Hafeez better bowler and fielder than Umar, Inclusion of Razzaq will strengthen batting along with an additional support to bowlings if Akhtar break down mid way. And Akhtar inclusion could be a surprise weapon.
Though I wish if Pakisan could try Niazi.