357 Million pakistani by 2050, here we come. Ready or not?
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkh1/chap1.htm
There are several overwhelmingly Muslim populations with very high population growth rates, such as those of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates. But none of them is projected to have such a massive absolute increase of the population as Pakistan. In 1950 Pakistan had a population of about 40 million people. Since then it has more than tripled and stood at 136 million in 1995. But the real population explosion in Pakistan will only come over the next few decades, because the country not only has a very young population, but also still an extremely high fertility - much higher, for instance, than in Bangladesh or Thailand. These large numbers of children and young adults will soon come into reproductive age and will produce a large number of offspring even if we assume, as in the UN medium variant, a rapid decline in average fertility to reproductive level (of 2.1 children per woman) by 2020. Pakistan’s population will be about 357 million by 2050 (according to the UN medium variant projection) (see Figure C1_6).
High fertility in the early 1950s was not the only reason for the exceptional population growth in Nigeria and Pakistan. There were other countries which initially had a similar or even higher level of fertility. Consider the case of Bangladesh and Thailand. The Total Fertility Rate of Bangladesh during the early 1970s was as high as in Nigeria or Pakistan and the initial population size was quite comparable. Yet Bangladesh is projected to have a population of “only” 220 million by 2050 (as compared to 339 in Nigeria). Even more impressive are the demographic trends in Thailand, which reflect one of Asia’s success stories in population control. The country’s average TFR was comparable to that in Nigeria, but declined sharply in the early 1970s. This “saved” Thailand from building up this massive population momentum which characterizes the situation in Nigeria or Pakistan. Consequently Thailand will have only a very moderate population increase of 14.7 million between 1995 and 2050 (see Figure C1_6).