Plausible changes
(1)- Ahmed Shehzad replacing Khurram Manzoor....it would be a bit harsh though on Khurram to drop him after just one game. He needs to be given a fair run before everyone starts judging his technique etc.
(2)- Mohammad Talha replacing Sohail Khan....as you mentioned above Sohail does not seem ready for test cricket yet
(3)- One of the two Shoaib Malik or Faisal Iqbal will have to make way eventually for Mohammad Yousuf once he comes back into the side. We don't have Yousuf here and both Malik and bhanja played their part with the bat in the previous game. This is also the series decider so it is highly unlikely that the selectors would make wholesale changes in the batting order
The only change that seems plausible is the one you mentioned above (2)
The over-rated Kaneria will ofcourse keep his place in the side for his second innings 'heroics'