Re: Zardari backs out: Now what?
I think PPP now can officially claim the new title of the Lota League & its hard to believe that the NS is the guy who looks like a statesman.
Ratting on the judges?
Plain words
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
M B Naqvi
By judges one means the judges deposed through the PCO manoeuvre by Pervez Musharraf on Nov 3 last year. The event’s background is clear. The year-long lawyers’ movement has inspired, indeed transformed, millions of people and Mr Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the CJP, is now the symbol of resistance to a non-democratic ruler. In particular Punjab is now in the vanguard of the movement for democracy. This has to be kept in focus.
Feb 18 election was held against the backdrop of two major developments. One has been mentioned; the lawyers’ movement is still being heartily supported by most of the media, civil society and many political parties, particularly those of the APDM. The second was controversial and its details are secret: This was a deal between Gen Musharraf and Ms Benazir Bhutto. It was brokered by the US and British governments and the rest of the west supports it.
The election results have shaped the new coalition government. Its largest component, the PPP, is the beneficiary of the National Reconciliation Ordinance; it is therefore promoting reconciliation all round which seems to have been the main purposes of the deal. The present government, based on reconciliation between the PPP and the PML-N and statesmanship of Mian Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari will survive only if these two parties can implement the Murree Declaration in letter and spirit. The outlook is clouded.
The Charter of Democracy was signed in 2006 between Benazir and Nawaz and the Murree Declaration of the PPP and the PML-N was signed on March 9 this year. The latter is more specific. The first job of the new government was to restore the Nov 3 deposed judges to their offices within 30 days without any let or hindrance and unconditionally. Has that happened?
Well, it looks as if this first job is unlikely to be done within the agreed timeframe. There is a deadlock. The PML-N insists that the judges be restored forthwith and unconditionally through an executive order after the NA passes a resolution. Most Pakistani jurists, including many retired Supreme Court judges, think that a simple notification by the Law Ministry is enough for the purpose.
But the PPP seems to have reasons to oppose this and it is making restoration conditional on constitutional amendments that require a two-thirds majority which might not be there, especially in the upper house, the Senate. The PPP boss, Asif Zardari, supposedly has a grudge against senior judges for not giving him any relief in the cases that owed themselves to Nawaz Sharif’s vendetta. He is supposed to be bitter on that score. It is claimed that the PPP wants not merely the restoration of certain individuals but is interested in the independence of the judiciary as an institution. These differences between the two bigger constituents make for an existential crisis for the Gilani government. It had better beware.
At any rate, the original momentum has been lost. The day the new PM ordered the release of the judges from their confinements, he could as well have ordered their reinstatement as Aitzaz Ahsan and others had recommended. That would have been that. Now, the president, the Q League and other Musharraf lovers seem to have readied themselves for a counter offensive – whatever shape that takes. Maybe the PPP, under one scenario, will succeed in reconciling with the Q League, the MQM and miscellaneous others at the cost of the PML-N. That would radically alienate lawyers, media and aware citizenry. That won’t be good for the PPP.
Nawaz League, thus isolated, will be in an excellent position as the true champion of democracy; Punjab is already its fiefdom. Next time the prize will be much of Pakistan, if only Nawaz’s leadership can evolve an attractive economic programme and satisfies people on the autonomy issue. The PPP might then seize failure from the jaws of Feb 18 victory. It may even have a hard time preserving its unity.
Generally, the conditions in the country could not have been worse. On the top of the list is the economic mess the previous regime has left. There is a clear and serious shortage of wheat that was exacerbated by the outgoing government’s actions in allowing some exports and letting hoarding and smuggling to go on. There is also a horrible shortage of electricity. The country is expected to suffer outages of electricity for 10 hours everyday for several years to come. Why? because Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz’s crew had other priorities than generating more power. Other foodstuffs are also in short supply.
The economic situation is worsening by galloping international prices of crude oil and foodstuffs. Expensive fuel means higher transportation costs all around and the whole inflationary cycle then moves up. Foodstuffs have necessarily to be imported; their prices are nearly four times the normal ones. Poorer countries are in a pincer of high food and high fuel prices. Who has any ideas to do something at the international level? Naturally Pakistan cannot do much about it. But adequate articulation on behalf of poor developing countries will go some way to keep the PML-N in the public eye as a party that cares for the poorer peoples.
Then, the management of the economy so far has been third-rate. Budget deficit is over 6 per cent of GDP. Exports are stagnating around $19 billion while imports are surging and may go beyond the $30 billion mark. Then, although considerable amounts of cash were received, Islamabad has continued to borrow at home and abroad. Pakistan has grown in foreign indebtedness too. The situation is scary; the main worry this year is that the current account deficit might touch $ 12 billion, maybe more.
The point is that the Gilani government has given us no new vision of how the country has to be rescued from its huge problems. Apart from the judges’ issue, there is the rise and rise of the Taliban and other Islamist groups that want to establish their own Khilafat. It worries the rest of the world. There is now a regular insurgency in NWFP’s tribal areas and it is spreading into the rest of Pakistan. There is also another insurgency in Balochistan where the Balochistan Liberation Army is battling the state. The people in Sindh are unhappy and divided. They want a new deal. Does this government show any clear comprehension?
Moreover, looking at the government’s recent appointments, there is not much difference in the flavour of the PPP-led government and the Musharraf-led government of recent past. Look at Mr Hussain Haqqani, a respected member of American think-tank and academic communities, as ambassador to America. The hitherto ambassador there is coming back to become national security adviser, the man the Americans trust. Similarly, there is Rehman Malik and others who are regarded as good persons by Americans. This government, if it lasts, might prove to be more pro-American than the last one. Many people are now wondering what was the Feb 18 voting exercise for
Is anything going to change? The lawyers and the judges stand for undiluted democracy, rule of law, independence of the judiciary and separation of powers. Is that on the government’s menu today? Today’s conditions look like the last scene in the Animal Farm of George Orwell where the ordinary four-legged pigs peeped in from outside and saw their leaders negotiating with the once-bad two-legged creatures and they could not distinguish one from the others.
The writer is a veteran journalist and freelance columnist. Email: [email protected]