Whither the markets?

[Captain1]

Re: Whither the markets?

@Southie

The market P to e based on trailing earnings is I think 21. But last 12 months earnings is low due mainly to oil and miners suffering. Assuming this is a one off event the p to e is about 20 suppose. Take 10 pct off and you get 18. Still bit on higher side.

Take 20 pct off and you get 16.

So 10 to 20 pct lower stoll brings it to reasonable valuations.

Shiller p to e probably now is at 23? Have to check. To bring it down to 19 we have to go down about 13.5 pct. To bring it to 18 we have to go down abt 21.5 pct. So down 13. 5 to 21.5 pct.

I had changed asset allocation from say 75 25 to 49 51 stock cash. With oil going down slowly bought oilnstocks. So maybe now 51 to 40 stocks cash. If mkt keeps going Dow will increase stocks allocations lowly

Where do you get P/E for Indices?