US turning to Vietnam exit strategy in Iraq / CIA warns of defeat (Merged)

It took them six years to realise they were losing in Vietnam and had to get out somehow, while in Iraq it has only taken six months.

Washington turning to Vietnam exit strategy in Iraq

Moving to pull US troops from Iraq amid intensifying attacks, replacing them with a hurriedly trained Iraqi force, Washington is accused of seeking an exit strategy similar to the Vietnam war. The move to “Iraqify” military and police forces is reminiscent of the option taken by Washington over the so-called Vietnamization that came before south Vietnam collapsed before northern forces in 1975, observers and politicians say. Former president Richard Nixon chose to “Vietnamify” – progressively putting heavier military responsibility on the south Vietnamese so as to disengage the United States, which lost 58,000 soldiers in the tortuous war. Though the Iraqi conflict is quite different and US casualties nowhere near the levels een in Vietnam, the analogy is being seen increasingly, after Washington said it may cut US troops from 132,000 to 105,000 by next spring. Parallely, the United States is aiming to take the number of Iraqi security forces – army, police and border guards – from 118,000 men to 170,000 by early 2004.

Concerns have been raised over the policy, with claims the US administration is more interested in improving public opinion ahead of the November 2004 elections – in which Bush will seek a second term – than in Iraq’s stability. “Frustrated by the lack of quick progress on the ground and fading political support at home, Washington is now latching on the idea that a quick transfer of power to local troops and politicians would make things better,” states columnist Fareed Zakaria. Or at any rate, it would lower American casualties. It was called Vietnamization; today it’s called Iraqification," Zakaria wrote in a column in The Washington Post and Newsweek. While political commentator Thomas Friedman said there was “no question this is necessary,” he added: “But it’s not sufficient”. We could have 100,000 Iraqis in the police and army and it would not be enough without one other person. We need an Iraqi leader (or a leadership council) elected as a result of an Iraqi constitutional or political process," wrote Friedman in The New York Times.

Republican Senator John McCain, a former pilot and Vietnam war veteran has added his voice to the debate, saying US forces in Iraq must be increased not reduced in number. When our Secretary of Defense says that it is up to the Iraqi people to defeat Baathists and terrorists, we send a message that America’s exit from Iraq is ultimately more important than the achievement of American goals in Iraq," McCain said Wednesday. To win in Iraq, we should increase the number of forces in-country, including Marines and Special Forces, to conduct offensive operations," said McCain underlining his belief that at least one more full division should be added to US troops there. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, seeking to reassure Thursday, said cutting troops would not be done to the detriment of military objectives and that Washington aims to stabilize the country it has its sights on transforming into a democratic model for the Middle East. “We’re bringing in forces that are appropriate to deal with the evolving threats in Iraq today, including more mobile infantry elements,” said Rumsfeld. “So while the number of US forces may be level or decline slightly, this much is certain: The overall capability of the security forces in Iraq will increase,” said the Pentagon chief, stipulating that “numbers do not necessarily equate with capability”.

12 times the attrition or 12 times the cowardice?

We never learn from history.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Nadia_H: *
We never learn from history.
[/QUOTE]

If what Malik posted then to some extent they did learn from the history ... thats why 6 months instead of 6 years :D

aha but I suppose they real lesson to be learned is to not be in the position to retreat in humilation in the first place.

**

:slight_smile: :flower1: Thank you i think that’s precisely what i mean. Had we learned our lessons the first time around, we would never have got entangled with Iraq in the first place.

Democracy will never be succesfully imposed externally. i think Afghanistan is another example of this. That’s why i keep saying it would be more productive if the US withdrew its entire forces from Iraq immediately and unconditionally. This is a quagmire for them; every other day there is a report of at least one American soldier being injured or wounded.

Y’know, this reminds me of that poem by Wilfred Owen, “Dulce et decorum est”, of armchair generals who send troops to fight wars while the armchair generals themselves rest in comfort thousands of miles away.

History never repeats but it sure does rhyme.

Really, it is sad the situation we're in. I know that no plan survives first contact with the enemy, that difficulties are inevitable.. but damn, this is just ridiculous. The reason our failure is so scary is not because the events took us by surprise, people predicted all of this, it is because common sense was and continues to be so blatantly disregarded.

In the last ten days, 40 American soldiers have been killed, and scores of others injured, as troops from the few other nations are also being targeted with such devestating effect. All across Iraq be it the Kurdish north, in the so-called 'Sunni triangle' and the Shia south the Iraqi resistance fighters are attacking with impunity. A very telling sign of the weakness of the American hold in Iraq is that there are now every night pretty bold and daring attacks around the US HQ in Baghdad.

Now we see that Paul Bremner has been called back to DC for emergency talks, as panic spreads in the American adminstration which is now desperate to extract itself from the Iraqi quagmire, in this the election year. American officials are now openly talking about dismissing the so-called governing council that they themselves appointed, and/or appoint an 'interim' leader to rule Iraq i.e. a stooge. Then they can say they have 'handed back to power to the Iraqi's in true Vietnam-style and leave Iraq before they have to sue for a 'peace with honour'.

what's going against the administration is the 2004 bid for re-election.... and Iraq like this will be a pinada without the blindfolds for the Democrats

Quem Deus Vult Perdere, Prius Dementat

US was defeated the day it took out its begging bowl and went begging for cannon fodders from every Tom Dick and Harry. It aint getting better no matter how you cut the cake. Next strategy, the hunt for a face saver! or should I say a$$ saver. :smiley:

Oh BTW, does any of you guppies know when is US gona liberate N. Koreans.. :hehe:

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,7850898%255E663,00.html

CIA warns of defeat

13nov03

A TOP-secret CIA report warns that growing numbers of Iraqis believe the US-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the resistance.

The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation and cautions that the US-led drive to rebuild the country as a democracy could collapse.
Paul Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, who arrived unexpectedly in Washington for strategy sessions yesterday, endorsed the CIA’s findings, a senior administration official said.

The report’s tone and Mr Bremer’s private endorsement differ sharply from public assessments.

President George W. Bush, chief aides and Mr Bremer are giving upbeat public pronouncements in an attempt to counter rising anxieties at home over US casualties in Iraq.

The report landed on the desks of senior US officials on Tuesday. The speed of the leak suggested that senior policymakers want to make sure the assessment reaches Mr Bush.

Some senior policymakers have complained of being frustrated in their efforts to provide Mr Bush with analyses that are more sombre than the optimistic views of Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.

The CIA analysis suggests US policy in Iraq has reached a turning point, as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerillas and accelerate the transfer of power.

In Baghdad, the US military announced yesterday it would become more aggressive against former Saddam Hussein loyalists, foreign and Iraqi Islamic extremists and Iraqi nationalists.

The top US general in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, said: "The most important message is that we are

all going to get pretty tough, and that’s what is needed to defeat the enemy, and we are definitely not shy of doing that when it is required."

Such a campaign, however, could cause more civilian casualties and drive more Iraqis to the side of the insurgents.

The CIA assessment also warns that none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election.

US officials have become deeply frustrated by infighting, nepotism and inaction within the 25-member Iraqi Governing Council.

A TOP-secret CIA report warns that growing numbers of Iraqis believe the US-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the resistance.

Well that is exactly what the many of us have been saying ever since this illegal war was launched, and once again we have been proved right, as now even the CIA is saying it.

Just as the Bush regime believes that what they "achieve" in Iraq will have a domino effect on the rest of the middle east, I believe that if the US occupiers are defeated and/or humiliated then it will unravel everything for the US in the region. All the Iraqi resistance forces have to do is to contiune to fight the occupiers for at least another 3-4 months at this rate, and Bush may meet the fate of his father at the election, and then the neo-cons will be thrown out of power.

so are we witnessing a new Vietnam.. or a new Afghanistan of 80's (as for USSR)!

CIA warns of American defeat in Iraq

CIA warns of defeat

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,7850898%255E663,00.html

A TOP-secret CIA report warns that growing numbers of Iraqis believe the US-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the resistance.

The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation and cautions that the US-led drive to rebuild the country as a democracy could collapse.
Paul Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, who arrived unexpectedly in Washington for strategy sessions yesterday, endorsed the CIA’s findings, a senior administration official said.

The report’s tone and Mr Bremer’s private endorsement differ sharply from public assessments.

President George W. Bush, chief aides and Mr Bremer are giving upbeat public pronouncements in an attempt to counter rising anxieties at home over US casualties in Iraq.

The report landed on the desks of senior US officials on Tuesday. The speed of the leak suggested that senior policymakers want to make sure the assessment reaches Mr Bush.

Some senior policymakers have complained of being frustrated in their efforts to provide Mr Bush with analyses that are more sombre than the optimistic views of Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.

The CIA analysis suggests US policy in Iraq has reached a turning point, as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerillas and accelerate the transfer of power.

In Baghdad, the US military announced yesterday it would become more aggressive against former Saddam Hussein loyalists, foreign and Iraqi Islamic extremists and Iraqi nationalists.

The top US general in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, said: "The most important message is that we are

all going to get pretty tough, and that’s what is needed to defeat the enemy, and we are definitely not shy of doing that when it is required."

Such a campaign, however, could cause more civilian casualties and drive more Iraqis to the side of the insurgents.

The CIA assessment also warns that none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election.

US officials have become deeply frustrated by infighting, nepotism and inaction within the 25-member Iraqi Governing Council.

Comment:

In this blessed month of ramadhan the mujahideen have accelarated their military operations giving hope and confidence to millions of muslims in Iraq and abroad. America can be defeated because it is Allah alone who makes nations mighty and nations crumble, indeed by the will of god America will be defeated inshallah. A nice analysis about the so called ’ Iraqi ruling council’ who we all knew were nothing more than low oppurtunists who would betray their Islam by allying with America. When the Americans are expelled from the Arabian peninsula then these traitors will get their day in court for their treachery.

This report is widely reported in the US media. Most people I talk to, white caucasian American males, are increasingly skeptical of US plans in Iraq. While the media-controlled polls shows about 50% Americans saying the Bush government is mismanaging Iraq in the post-war era, in reality I suspect there are very few Americans left who are still gung-ho about this adventure. Only the most right-wing doomsday talk show hosts are still egging on the Bush government to 'complete' their mission in Iraq, else it will be armageddon.

The problem is that, in sharp contrast to Clinton Presidency, President Bush has historically shown scant regard for public polls and sentiments; and has basically carried on with whatever he felt is the right course. However, it seems like sense is going to prevail afterall. If Bush sidelines Donald*Duck*Rumsfield and Dick*Haliburton*Cheney from his team, the policies are likely get de-hawked and more realisitic.

Its interesting to note that in a country the size of Iraq, US has faced relatively few casualities (less than 500 officially, probably close to 1,000-2,000 in reality plus the wounded) and still their resolve is already in shatters. Experts were right early on, when they predicted that when body bags start coming back, the whole war sentiment will vanish in no time. That is exactly what's happening.

The same CIA that said Iraq has WMD.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Zakk: *
Quem Deus Vult Perdere, Prius Dementat
[/QUOTE]
Good quote, even if I don't 100% agree with it. :)

Re: CIA warns of American defeat in Iraq

Speaking of nepotism in the US-created Iraqi Governing Council… reminds me of flipping through Abu Dhabi’s/Dubai’s phone directories - the first 20 glossy pages or so always have pictures of falaan falaan Minister - invariably the Ministers’ surnames are almost always exactly the same - always ending in al Nahyan. Nepotism zindabad :k:

Keeping it in the family, The Guardian, 23 November 2003

Iraqis jokingly call it a government of the nearest and dearest. Though Saddam Hussein and his Tikriti relatives have gone, Iraq’s new leaders are doing their bit to keep nepotism alive. Almost a third of the cabinet and US-appointed governing council are related to one or more other members.

Regarding the CIA report itself - the quote by the “top US general in Iraq” sums up the problem: “The most important message is that we are all going to get pretty tough”. Being “tough” is what landed them in this sticky mess in the first place. They still don’t get it.

Wonder what the implications would be for Syria and Iran who were 'next on the list' according to Rumsfeld/Bush doctrine?

^^ Not before the next elections are won, After that rest assured of a renewed crusade (oh by that i meant so called war-agsint-terrorism)