That the bull market is coming to a close is evident by the fact that 50K viewership is becoming a rarity. While our Nuggets franchise has crossed this landmark, it should be noted that bulk of the viewership occurred during the middle of the rally since March 2009. Threads opened a year back have been struggling to gain viewership.
Some of our #AlertReader](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=AlertReader) pointed out the mega deals happening in the Big Pharmacy and Biotech space. Right on cue last week WSJ (date done know, paper has been recycled) had an article about how Merck has not joined the acquisition race. Well, it has acquired two companies - we forget the names - for a total of about 22 billion dollars. Whereas the other acquisitions are about 40 billion per on average.
Apparently, Merck has been returning money to shareholders, thus using its.cash wisely. Dig a bit deeper, and you find the buybacks are about the same as R&D outlays.
We won’t insult our regular readers by stating anything further. For those joining this column recently, read on.
With the stock having moved significantly, we are not sure buybacks are called for here. Having said that, the shares at 58 are still off from the high of circa 72. So we will cut the Merckster a break.
Readers, did you know that since 2000, the year over year sales has declined only once? Of course you did. That happened in 2009. The 2015 sales are projected to be lower than 2014.
The main reason is oil prices meeting gravity. The other usual suspect? Strong US dollar.
With valuations sky high and the top line falling, the already high margins need to be even higher! Something don't seem right.
Contents from either May 12 or 13 WSJ.
Of course the other lever is stock buybacks, which allow companies to swim naked as long as the waves are high.
60 billion dollars. That is the price Dell may pay up for EMC
49 BILLION DOLLARS. That is the debt Dell has to raise. Probably in the high yield market. Where yields are at 4 year high of 7.73 pct. Dell would have to pay higher interest rate it seems.
Source Oct 10 WSJ B12.
Run for the hills.
PS - you can find this thread anytime by entering thread title in search terms.
The theme this week appears to be Mega deals funded through Mega debt. Abbvie Anheis3r is offering 104 billion dollars to acquire Sab Miller. They could go to European debt market to fund the deal.
The deal values Sab Miller at 31 times earnings. Altria owns 27 pct of bade Sab. And approves this deal.
What is not to like for the Millers?
Source - last week WSJ
Written while watching lady bugs having sumptuous meal.
Goodwill write downs are at multi year highs. 25 billion in 2014. 23 billion in 2013. With acquisitions in 2015 at high levels, we can expect more of the same.
Microsoft too 7 billion write down on the 9 billion it paid for Nokia in 2014.
Source circa Nov 22 wsj. Written from memory.
So what is impact on investor. The earnings take a hit. More importantly is it unnecessary destruction of shareholder value.
Share buybacks are also quite high. So high that companies with lower net income year Over year have higher earnings per share eps.
Microsoft apple and other tech giants okay this game. Most tech companies use stock options as compensation. Investors should pay heed to this hidden cost.
Of course companies are buying back shares at all time high prices.
Today's wsj had an interesting article on EQT which is a Nat gas drilling company. It founds lots of Nat gas in a utica shale which is in PA Oh and west Virginia - 3 Miles below earth surface. Enough Nat gas to power all homes in Pittsburgh.
Why? Cause Nat gas is so cheap, it will have to shut some more expensive drilling rigs elsewhere.
Same thing happened to its competitors.
BHP the mining company had it even worse. Had to write down billions of dollars invested in Nat gas fields which it picked up few years ago.
The us stockpile of Nat gas is 4 trillion. And it's production is 18 trillion cu ft.
When a company's stock price goes DOWN after new Nat gas generation, this indicates how cheap gas is. And also indicates share prices may have moved too much south.
So how many miles below earth surface does reserve have to be before the reserve belongs to another country in this the spherical earth we live in. Mods may move this post to logic quiz thread at their discretion.
All numbers from memory. Typed from a Nordstrom near you.