Re: Unique financial nuggets
Speaking of buy high sell low stock percentage in contributions in retirement account is the highest since 2009 at 67 pct. Compared to 56 pct back then. Those who got out in 2009 are coming back in, comforted by the rise in the market.
Where have we seen this act before? There is nothing new under the sun. Especially when it comes to investors' reaction to market movements. Be advised the term investors is used loosely.
Content from today WSJ.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Hide the women and children.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Cause Technical Analysis has reared it's ugly head at Wasatch. The fund manager Sam Stewart claims had he used TA he could have avoided 2007 meltdown. Apparently if he had looked at the charts he would have told himself "you are crazy" to buy now.
The secret sauce? 1) Use point and finger chart that make it clear when a new trend emerges.
2) look at 7 week and 21 week moving averages. If BOTH have an upward trend it's a short term and long term buy.
Apparently according to Stewart the same indicators that shouted sell in 2007 now holler BUY BUY BUY.
Ethan. Don't walk. RUN RUN RUN from this hocus pocus.
Source wsj monday
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Not all debt is bad. Ask Arch Coal bondholders. It's net debt of 4 billion dollars was SEVENTEEN times EBITDA earnings before all that bad stuff. So the stock has dropped 80 pct last 3 years.
Here we take a detour to remind our readers that we have constantly emphasized the importance of a strong balance sheet. Proud of u readers for walking away from this stock.
Arch has 1 billion of 7 pct unsecured senior notes due 2019 selling at 77 cents to dollar. Equals 9.1.pct told and 13 pct yield to maturity.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
How the heck does one calculate yield to maturity?
Re: Unique financial nuggets
If arch goes bankrupt then these notes at risk. Most of its coal is from powder river basin. Taking share from expensive Appalachian coal. Also Nat gas exports may lead to price increase. So good for coal. So bond should be safe thru 2019.
not so for stocks. Cause debt laden companies issue shares to raise cash pressuring stock.
As.long as arch survives thru 2019 ur mone safe.
Source wsj Monday
Would I buy these notes. Never bought bonds. Don't know how to. Seems a calculated risk with good reward to risk ratio. I will stay away cause am not smart enough to analyze bonds.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
World Foods Market WFMI dropped 19% on Wednesday? Why? Our readers know exactly why.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
So for the new subscribers to this thread, here we go.
WFMI Gross margins over last 5 yrs 35 pct. That's humongous in food industry. With such pricing power comes competition. Amazon now is entering market. So is Kroger. Result? Their cost per u it sales jumped. While sales dipped. What do u expect when margin AND sales dip?
Re: Unique financial nuggets
When WFMI was at 66, the Cramers recommend ed it. Now at 39 they r saying it's too expensive. That it is at p to e of 24. But it was almost doubly expensive at 66.
Congratulations to our readers for recognizing this. Yes. You know the drill. Pat urself on the back.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
You may stop patting yourself on the back, dear Reader.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Deere caught in the headlights. That's how those who bought de a year ago must feel. While the market has done exceedingly well, notwithstanding the swoon the last 2 days, DE has had 0 pct return in that time.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
In 2001 revenue was 11 billion while ROA was NEGATIVE. Last year revenue was 33 billion while ROA was in record territory. So what gives?
Re: Unique financial nuggets
2014 and 2015 earnings forecast have been reduced by 6 and 17 pct due to lower revenue from US farm. Could be 27 pct lower this year.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Per today's WSJ this is baked in. The p to e for next 12 months is 11.7. Compared to 15 over last 15 yrs.
Article states DE CURBED investment and working capital" during declines. Hence produced return of 5 times the market in last 15 years.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
The article foes on to state 2013 US farm income was at record level. While we haven't checked DE earnings in 2013, we suspect 2013 was peak earnings.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Those who have read our cyclical stocks column would realize that 1.75 shoes have to drop. And if Emelda Marcos is in the house, a few more.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
And if the earnings do drop severely from peak values, this apparently mild p to e ratio may no longer look mild. Even if the stock falls like a ball of steel. And that, dear readers, would be the time to pull the trigger.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Checked the stats. Since 1995 DE UP 720 pct ex div. Snap 500 up 320 pct. That is some outperformance. Considering the raging 90 s pulled stocks above the ozone layer.
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Since 2001 De up 4.8x. Mkt up 1.5x. Ex div 3.2x outperformance. Less than the 5 claim in wsj. In 1999 sno 500 div you low. So possible the total returns r close to 5x.
more telling is return since 1995 is 3.5x ex div. So De has come long way. Time to five something back?
Re: Unique financial nuggets
Did check eps over last 5 yrs. 2009 as expected was trough earnings. At 2.6 dollars per share. Guess what. Price e was also trough. That's how cycli4cal s work.