Unique financial nuggets

[Southie]

Re: Unique financial nuggets

@Southie

Always a conundrum. Depending on who you ask s&p 500 p toe based on last 12 months is 19 to 21. So while not at 2007 Oct level (P to E 27 to 30 in thint or 2000 March level p to E 40 this mkt not nearly as overvalued. But overvalued by (20 -15)/15×100 or 33 pct. So it has to drop 5/20×100 or 25 pct from current levels.

25% of 1820 is 455. So needs to reach 1820 - 455 = 1365
P to E 16 means drop 4/20 or 20 pct. Or 365..so reach 1455.

P to E 17 3/20 or 15 pct. Or 275. Reach 1545

So ideally 1365 to 1545 is range to put MORE than normal. For 401k I happened to move 1.pct at peak into money mkt. But plan to do normal cost averaging

Per Friday WSJ p/E for last 12 Mon is 17.69 (not 19 to 21 as I thiught).

So u can redo calcs for 15 16 17 p to e.

same day in an article p/E trailing was stated to be 16.
So which number we can trust? Not first time WSJ contradicted itself.

I trust 17.69. It was in the daily mkt dashboard.

so mkt needs to drop 3 to 16 pct.

I am comfortable with the 16 pct drop number. Or 1510. Can start nibbling at 1650? And hope it goes all way to 1300