Re: The Telegraph reports: Pervez Musharraf 'will exit in days, not months'
There is no tax on wishful thinking, doing propaganda or spreading misinformation :)
As for above article, it seems that whoever is doing propaganda does not even know ground realities in Pakistan and number game of Pakistan Assemblies. Well, if President decides to step down than it is upto him. Nevertheless, there is no constitutional way anything can be done neither it is necessary. If there are many who want President to step down, there are many who would like him to stay and kick governments if they do corruption or wrong governance.
First of all, PML(Q) is a party but there are many individuals from Past assembly who are in President camp, but they did not contested election on PML(Q) ticket under Ch Shujjat and contested election as independent and some even joined PML(N) and PPP to contest election (if any voting may happen against Musharraf, they are most likely to abstain).
Second thing is numbers in Assembly. Presently 265 NA results are announced and party position is: PPP = 87 PMLN = 68 PMLQ =42 PMLF = 4 NPP = 2 PPP(S) =1 BNP =1 MQM =19 ANP = 9 Ind = 26 MMA (almost all JUI seats) = 6
In above parties, other than PMLN, none were whole heartedly against President. Actually PPP outside and inside the parliament, was more cooperative to President than PML(Q) and it was believed that in most cases, PPP along with MMA was playing B team to President. Fact is that, even though PPP was not in government, PPP supported each and every policy of President Musharraf and even though PML(Q) was ruling under Musharraf, opposed many of Musharraf policies, that was mostly left to the centre, same as what is suppose to be PPP ideal policies (minus PPP corruption).
As for official alliances, PML(Q) was ruling different provinces and Islamabad in alliance with MQM, PML(F), NPP, PPP(S), MMA (Baluchistan) and I believe even with ANP (had 0 seats in NA, but they were cooperating in Senate and in NWFP as opposition with PML(Q)). Actually, what we see on surface is much different than what could be truth, as NS, SS, Zardari, BB, all of them were in Pakistan with consent of President and it is believed that they all made deal of one sort or another.
Hence, in reality only party vocal against President is PMLN (at least on surface). What is their position in Senate? PMLN has 3 senators. PPP has 9 senators (together, PMLN and PPP have 12 out of 100 senators). MMA has 18 senators. Rest of the senators except one or two more, are mostly pro-president.
Now, let see the situation: Even if PPP and PMLN joins together, they do not have 2/3 majority to do anything to change constitution or any laws that exists at present (even if ANP and MMA joins them, still they could not make the numbers required). Actually, they could not even reinstate Judges with seats they have (unless President just let them do that).
Now for argument sake, even if they had 2/3 majority in NA than also once NA approves any law, senate has to pass it with majority. There is no way anyone can pass any law from senate as pro-President parties have majority in Senate.
Even though only party that is in reality against President is PMLN, let assume that PPP, PMLN, MMA, ANP, all are opposed to President. Now hypothetically, let say that parties oppose to President wants to impeach President than they would not need 228 votes, they would actually need 295 votes from combined house of NA and Senate. Even though these parties together do not make up two-third majority in NA, still let say they do, still, to get two-third majority in combined house is going to be completely impossible.
Let say that by some miracle it becomes possible that they found 2/3 majority in combined house, still there is one big hurdle, that is, before any impeachment happens President can use 52-B to dissolve the parliament. Parties can go to Supreme Court and there is no way they can make supreme court give verdict in their favour as present Supreme court has no grudge against President and constitution allows President to dissolve the parliament.
So, parties may huff and puff, but there is no way they can do anything and for President to step down, it would be his choice. But then why he should step down? If parties get elected and want to loot and plunder, all new party in power would start looking for their man as President. That should not happen as President has to be there to see if parties are behaving and not doing any corruption. If Parties desire that President should step down does not mean that President should really step down.
As for USA and Europe backing President, there are reasons for that too. They do not back someone that does not have any thing that cause west to back that person. For instance, West won't back irrelevant person for any post. They are backing Musharraf because they know that Musharraf has support of Army and establishment plus good number of people in masses, and thus can do what he likes. On the other hand, if they would not back him, still they have nothing that they can do. If such backing within Pakistan was not there supporting Musharraf, they would have never backed President.
As for public support, I do not think that it has waned. Parties pro-President, including PML(Q) did get a good proportion of votes. That is different matter that some created circumstances (paid by past goons), especially in Punjab cities, plus parties in opposition contested with support of each other did made some difference. It was funny how PPP, JI, MMA, and TI votes were falling for PMLN where it was needed, and anti-government PML votes along with JI, MMA and TI were falling for PPP. In such situation, I think that PML has done quite good.
Well, other than cities in Northern Punjab and Punjab closely affiliated areas in NWFP, nowhere PML(Q) did bad. For instance, this election has shown that PMLN got reduced to Punjab Municipal League as it got no seats outside cities of Punjab or some votes in eastern NWFP close to Islamabad. Whereas, PML(Q) did reasonably well in rest of the country, especially in Baluchistan. Election result in provinces show that PML(Q) along with PPP are only two National parties, with presence all over Pakistan.
For instance: Out of 51 Baluchistan Provincial Assembly seats, PML(Q) got 18, MMA got 7 and thus they would make government again. As for others, PPP got 7. BNP got 5, ANP got 2, NP got 1, and ind got 11. PMLN got zero seats in both PA and NA from Baluchistan.
In Sindh, PML(Q) and alliance got 58 out of 130 seats (MQM = 38, PML =10, PML(F) = 7, NPP =3). PPP got 70 and ANP got 2. PMLN got zero seats in both PA and NA from Sindh.
In Punjab, considering all propaganda campaign, plus many PML(Q) candidate contested as independent or joined PML(N) or PPP just to contest election (a move of convenience), PML(Q) got 69 PA seats, in comparison PPP got 79 and PML(N) got 104 seats and there are 34 independents (a very large proportion of them are pro-Musharraf candidates). Results of 6 seats are still to come.
Punjab has 297 PA seats and one needs 144 seats to form govt in Punjab. It seems that PML(Q) decided to let PPP and PML(N) fight with each other for government of Punjab, even though if they want they can side with any of the two parties (PPP or PMLN) to give them government in Punjab.
As for NWFP, total seats are 99 and ANP got 31 PA seats (result on 8 is yet to come). Here PPP with 17 seats came second. MMA got 10. PML(Q), PPP (Sherpao) and PML(N), all three parties got 5 seats each. There are 18 independents and thus most likely ANP would make government.
So, one can say that result is as expected, that is of hung parliament in National Assembly as well as in all provinces except Sindh where PPP can make government with small margin. Only unexpected part of election was that PMLN got few seats more than expected. Even though, that could be part of some shrewd future design.
Nevertheless, this election has turned PMLN into a regional party. PPP and PML(Q) are only two parties that got reasonable votes in all 4 provinces and got seats in NA as well as PA from all 4 provinces.
As for crossing the party line, it is not allowed in Pakistani constitution but if it was allowed, it would have been easier for government to split PML(N) and PPP, rather they splitting PML(Q). As for some talking about Lota party and so on, than people should know that PML does not belong to Nawaz Shareef and lotas are those that today are standing behind NS as if Party belongs to NS. Reality is that, those in PML(Q), most were in PML since generation. As for NS and many in PMLN, most are opportunist and they can do anything for money or power. One can see the character of NS that he can make alliance with anyone, even devil, to fool people. NS and characterless people like him have no party other than corruption and nepotism. If today Zardari would throw a bone to him, he would become loyal servant of Zardari and tomorrow if it would be any military dictator (like Zia) would throw a bone to him, he would become loyal servant of that military man.
Very good analysis of the reality and current situation.