Re: The Saturday Summary Column
So how does hold going down with increasing interest rates square with interest rates going up with inflation and gold going up with inflation?
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Apparently, per the experts, gold prices do track inflation. Over the looooooong term. Of several decades.
Seriously?
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
The other piece was by zweig. Don’t put too much money in shares of company u work for. Remember Enron?
You knew that #DearReader](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=DearReader)
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
There was a piece on UK minibonds. For the benefit of our members from across the pond, we will open a separate thread on this. At 12 noon universal time. Stay tuned.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
In today's WSJ mr. Hulbert lists top market timers who say mkt still has room to run. They recommend 83 pct of assets in stock.
So which Mr. Hulbert should one listen to. We hope you have enjoyed our riveting first edition of Saturday Summary.
The Hulbert vs Hulbert Challenge appears to be at least as intriguing as the English Challenge. This week Mr. H was bearish. Stating the peak in merger activity signals a market top. What is it they say about the clock being right twice a day.
Today Hulbert was in the shiller camp. That p to e based on last 10 to yr earnings expemsive. He is right this time
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Mr. Hulbert states don't fire ur financial advisor after a year of bad return. Those who change advisors a lot underperformed mkt significantly. Recommends total mkt index funds since 80 pct of advisors underperformed mkt.
In last 15 yrs his digest followed 65 afvisors. 3 beat mkt. He ends stating those could be good options.
Right. Couldn't this just be statistics at work here? Why bother with such low odds?
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Other sat summary
Pfizer offers 54 billion for shire. Mainly tax inversion. Tax rate would fall 12 pct from 25 pct. But Obama administration is trying to prevent such loopholes. This is one huge deal.
Article abt now investors get more optimistic as mkt goes up and vice versa. So they end up buy more at peaks and sell at valleys. Nothing new here.
Crude futures inverted for brent. So current price lower than 3 months future. Not sure what the significance is. Note THAT FOR Non inverted curve price falls in out years. So does this mean oil as an asset expected to decrease in price?
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Mr. Hulbert was off today. There was an article abt financial advisors charging u break up fee in ADDITION to the 2.5 pct fees they charge per yr. Some dont. Buyer beware.
An article on importance of also buying international funds. US is expensive. Other countries cheaper.
Another article on gold. Gold does move up on geopolitical risk. But that is short term. When inflation picks up and interest rates rise gold gets hurt. Cause gold doesn't pay dividends..
Corollary when interests rates decline and stay there gold moves up.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
In today's WSJ mr. Hulbert lists top market timers who say mkt still has room to run. They recommend 83 pct of assets in stock.
So which Mr. Hulbert should one listen to. We hope you have enjoyed our riveting first edition of Saturday Summary.
In today's WSJ, Mr. Hulbert refers to 3 indicators that when occur together signal a bear mkt start. It seems those indicators were set this week. OP, per ur June 14 post, Mr. H was touting bullish forecasters.
have you heard that the clock is right twice a day, OP? I didn't think so.
by the way, what happened to old fashioned valuation metrics such as p to e p to s p to cash flow etc.? Keep it simple will u?
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Mr. Hulbert was singing a different tune this week. Don't try to time the market was the theme of his article. A simple buy and hold approach is the best. Getting out and in at right time difficult.
All great advice. If only you would be consistent, sir.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
#DearReader](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=DearReader) would have seen the following in other threads. Cross - reference provided.
- Ultrashort bonds funds. In “The Nuggets Spinoff” thread
- Are there any bargains now?. In “Whither the markets” thread
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
German markets hit hard due to Russia Ukraine issue. Germany has 30 pct of European trade with Russia. Market down 7.6 pct in last month. Western sections target finance oil a d defense. Siemens could get affected for example. Other European equity mkts could also get affected. (Of course that is when value investors come in).
The flip side? The German bonds jumped in price. The 10 yr bonds yield sank to an ALL TIME LOW of 1.022 pct intraday.
#DearReader](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=DearReader) you r correct. Last point also belongs in the Nuggets Spinoff thread with interest rates being the theme of this week.
We are understaffed. Do you want to take that on? Thanks for your help.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Jason Zweig did a piece on if hedge funds and other alternatives belong in 401k. Apparently some target funds already are dabbling in this. Target funds hold 1.7 billion dollars in alternatives 4 x of 2010 levels.
On paper such funds protect u from downturns.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Problems
Very difficult to select good managers
Also hedge funds r meant for those who don't move money around too much. Like pension plans endowments
Expense ratio of 2 pct is 20 times that of index funds
Article omits to mention - hedge funds also take 20 pct of ur gains. But don't give back 20 pct of ur losses
I. 2008 and 09 endowments lost lot of money in these altefnayives. And found them illiquid. So no it did not do what it was supposed to do. Protection against downturns.
So in short, not a good idea. Pun intended.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Walter upgrade states u can be too diversified in ur retirement account. No need for hedge funds commodities reits. One us total mkt index fund one us bond fund one international stock fund. That is all u need. Just have ur stock to bond allocation set. And the us to international stock allocation set.
I agree.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Why cash is not trash was an article by Morgan Housal. Talks abt value managers who like to have some cash ( up to 20 pct) ready. So in downturns they don't have to sell to meet redemptions. And also use that to buy shares that r cheap.
Couldn't agree more.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
Speakintg of neanxarthals Jason Zweig wrote about active fund managers becoming extinct. Warren Buffet declared in circa April that his will will consist of 90 pct Snp500 index fund and 10 pct short term bonds. (This was reported earlier this week in wsj).
Inflows into snp500 index funds have increased significantly - I don't recall actual numbers. Zweig went on to say that in 80s and 90s people didn't care too much abt cost. Since return was 18 pct per yeqr.
Now the returns for last decade more like 4pct. So costs matter more.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
He made the case that these active fund managers will be out of a job. But they can add value as financial planners.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
There was another article abt schools having stock investment classes with real money being put to work. Apparently this would teach kids from experience.
Crappy idea if you asked me. Teaching kids day to day price movements r somehow important.
Re: The Saturday Summary Column
There was another article abt timing the mkts based on valuation. Investors have underperformed mkts since they have tendency to buy high and sell low. And actively managed funds underperformed index funds even before fees. So how can an investor beat the mkt long term?
Allocate 30 pct.more to stocks when CAPE ratio Schiller is in the bottom 10 percentile. A d 30 pct more to bonds when cape in top 10 percentile. For the next percentile buy or sell say 15 pct more stocks.
Of course this will work only long term.