How far can the EU expand? As it expands further east will deeper integration i.e. moves towards a more federal Europe not become more difficult?
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The EU’s eastward drift
The European Union has taken off and is flying east without a clear idea of where or when it is going to land. It is rapidly approaching the borderlands of the old USSR, where it will touch down next year to refuel. It will then glide into the Balkans in 2007, and in theory it could land in Turkey 10 years from now, giving “Europe” a border with Iraq. But that might not be the limit. Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine are widely regarded as potential EU states and the Caucasian states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have not been ruled out. Even Israel and Russia are seen as future members by a few. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that today’s EU of 15 could one day become a club of more than 40 states stretching from Iceland to the Caspian - no line has yet been drawn on the map. What kind of organisation such a big union would become is anybody’s guess.
There is no way Belarus or Ukraine will ever have a chance at membership.. their governments are corrupt beyond belief and don't look like they'll be changing anytime soon. Azerb, Georgia, etc likewise are quite unlikely for similar reasons. Plus I doubt if their populations would favor such a thing beyond the material benefits membership can bring.
What may happen is that the EU creates a secondary level of membership.. then Russia and the border states will be able to lock into the trade union etc, but not affect domestic legislation for the eurozone.
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*Originally posted by spoon: *
There is no way Belarus or Ukraine will ever have a chance at membership.. their governments are corrupt beyond belief and don't look like they'll be changing anytime soon. Azerb, Georgia, etc likewise are quite unlikely for similar reasons. Plus I doubt if their populations would favor such a thing beyond the material benefits membership can bring.
What may happen is that the EU creates a secondary level of membership.. then Russia and the border states will be able to lock into the trade union etc, but not affect domestic legislation for the eurozone.
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That is probably an accurate summary. Apart from the Slavic and Caucasian states of the former USSR, it is hard to see any former Yugoslav states entering the EU (after Slovenia enters next year) as well. Croatia still has to allow back the half a million ethnic Serbs who were expelled after the 1995 war that drove them out, and Serbia-Montenegro has still to resolve it's internal contradictions as well as the Kosovo question. Bosnia-Hercegovina is even far behind these two as a state that can assert itself independently.
In 2004 the EU will grow to 25 states, and Romania and Bulgaria are most likely to join in 2007, possibly even with Romanian-speaking Moldova. After that the only other state to seriously consider is Turkey, and that has always raised many questions of what kind of EU the European leaders are prepared to accept?