So Taiwan again flexed its muscles for “indpendence” and China gave them a long hard stare. Then the ever benevolent One-China-But-We-Will-Protect-Taiwan US jumped into the fray to “diffuse” tensions. Whats up with these two? I mean, Chinese and Taiwanese.
Sometimes, I think China should just cross the pond and teach them Taiwanese a lesson in keeping the mouth shut and get over this “fly” once and for all. Then again, those Taiwanese may not like that suggestion. Like every decent human being, they should have a right to self-governance. Then again, if the rest of the world stops giving them any attention, may be they’d be able to solve this, by hook or by crook.
Will anything come out of this recent flare? I doubt it. Its like Indo-Pak’s annual increase in tensions phase. Goes up. Comes down. Everyone carries on.
In the end 'Taiwan' will have to accede to some sort of agreement with mainland China, akin to the Hong Kong and Macau arrangements i.e. the "one country, two systems" set up. With China's economy continuing to grow at a consistently huge rate in the coming years, 'Taiwan' will be sucked into the Chinese economic sphere, like the rest of South East Asia. It may take 10 or 20 more years but Taiwan will return to China.
Taiwan is not going anywhere the Chinese know that. They have so much conventional firepower facing Taiwan that the island will sink within 10 minutes. Chinese are smart, very smart they never touched Honk Kong either nor will they touch Taiwan. Why kill the ghoose that lays golden eggs. Taiwan will have no choice but eventually return to the motherland. Even US knows the ground realities and has told Taiwan to shutup and get use to one China policy.
I think Taiwan would have had a better chance a while back, now with China's emergence and importance in global economy, you dont really want to piss chinese off, and that seems to be US policy..who is Taiwan goign to go for support? surely UN is not going to say anythign about it.
taiwan has about as much chance of independence..or even less than..puerto rico becoming independent. (even though i dont see what we'll lose if we let it just go its own way..puerto rico i mean)
Something I don't hear discussed much is that future events may very well eliminate in the Taiwanese their resistance/reluctance to becoming part of mainland China. The economic and political liberalization that has occured in China has been slow, slow, slow. However, the economic growth, recognition of private property, and other economic reforms carry with them a strong push toward greater political freedom and democratization. The pace of reform and liberalization is likely to accelerate over the coming decades.
So in 20 years, mainland China may economically and politically resemble the type of country that the Nationalists would want to assimilate within. The split occured because of the huge chasms that existed in the philosophical underpinnings of the two peoples. As these philosophical differences shrink, rapproachment becomes more viable.
Those of us who grew up during the cold war never imagined that East and West Germany would unify. The total break up of the Soviet Empire never seemed like a realistic wish. If we keep the missiles from flying for a few decades, time will resolve this wound (IMO).
MV true, my hong kng colleagues talk about how they were concerned that after being a part of china hong kong will not be teh same..which has been true but not because the old china dragged it down but other parts of china became more prominent..my hong kong pals who swore they would never work in the mainland are very content working there now. The political freedom etc is of course not the same..but things have changed enough. If it continues down that path..Taiwan may be begginf ro China to take it back :)
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*Originally posted by Fraudz: *
If it continues down that path..Taiwan may be begginf ro China to take it back :)
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Exactly my point but stated better by you. Neither China nor the US has any interest in seeing this thing resolved through force. The US cannot give up its long standing defense commitment of Taiwan and China can not allow Taiwan independence. Time is likely to make the people of Taiwan voluntarily choose the outcome that makes everyone happy.