Rhia,
Very thoughful resonse.
Let's address them one at a time.
Lebanon is indeed a miracle in the MidEast. It is unfortunate that a country which does have the foundation that might actually support a democracy has almost constantly been occupied by Syria.
Iran, also has the possibility of Democracy, but if you ask any young Iranian it is far from it today. The Democracy movement in Iran is largely demographically driven by the youth of the country, and they are protesting nearly constantly, as well as their university professors who are routinely imprisoned. In many ways Bush's "Axis of Evil" comment was a slap at the conditions which prevail in Iran. To call their government a democracy is to be very kind. It is at best a theocracy, or perhaps a gerontocracy, but many of the basic tenents of a Democracy are a mere lip service. I do not fear Iran, for I beleive that over time the youth will prevail, and the totalitarian impulses of the Islamists will moderate as they die off and youth assumes the mantle of control. Iran is 15 years ahead of the rest of the Islamic political world.
Pakistan was described here as an "emerging democracy". We shall see. One of the things that I have preached about here as a trait of democracy is that it has a certain self-righting balance. My analogy was similar to a sail boat. The boat may tip to the left or the right, but the ballast of democray will right the boat. Pakistan may have elected a group of hard-line Islamists in the last election, but if they are too radical, and the democracy is constructed and defended well, they may be voted out in the next election if they do not serve the people well.
Saudi is perhaps the most hopeless situation, as the House of Saud has painted themselves into a corner. Ultimately their population is expanding at a massive rate, but their oil reserves are shrinking. A hard line Islamist regime would hurt the entire population economically.
Frankly, I am so tired of the Israeli/Palestinian morass that I could puke. Arafat and Sharon both need to have heartattacks, and we need to start over. I truely hope that the US sits on Sharon with all of it's weight to solve the problem, and that somebody sits on Arafat in a similar fashion. Israel is a prime example of the democratic boat tipping over til the mast touches the water. If there is any resolution to the palestinian situation I beleive that a very moderate leadership in Israel will prevail.
(funny when I quote Huntindon, I have people screaming at me.)
Ultimately even a democracy that disagrees with the US is still preferable to totalitarian regimes which have never served the world well. I think beyond the smokescreen of WMD, that this is the ultimate agenda of the neo-conservative mafia in Washington. Frankly Friedman had a good article a while ago, stating his suprise that the US used it's power to invoke a democratic revolution in the mideast. While you can tell me that there are some countries that are moving towards democracy, the oil wealth of the middle east has created a political culture that is anything but democatic. I think that is why people talk about the "treasure" of the Iraqi people. They were born with a wealth that should put a silver spoon in the mouth of every man woman and child in the country. The Baathist ideal of dominating all of Arabia from the north of africa to Iran has squandered the inheritance....
