Re: Shahid Javed Burki on Pakistan lop sided economic growth///
Brothers: Read the article by Javed Burki and try to understand. It seems that some are commenting without reading and understanding what he wrote. Actually, he admitted that economy has done very well during last 8 years and Pakistan has become rich, developed, and prosperous.
Further he assumes that even though all can see the prosperity, prosperity did not reach all sector of society (all did not receive the candy), hence election result would be unpredictable and politics volatile, where any party that can fool the poor ‘with their candy handout promises’ would win.
Due to prosperity, he believes population is divided into three categories. He is right as any booming economy divides the population in those three categories he mentioned. Anyhow, the number he gave is debatable.
He gave Indian example of ‘Shining India’ where India did shine (as did Pakistan) but prosperity did not reach the lower masses and thus BJP got kicked out. But he forgot that political dynamics in India and Pakistan is different and that concentration of benefits Indian society received is also not same as what happened in Pakistan. There are valid reasons to believe that and as cultural and social background of both countries are different.
Pakistan being Muslim country, if country prospers than prosperity to a level always reaches poor. Second is that, unlike India, voters amongst poor in Pakistan are mostly men as Pakistani poor (especially in villages) do not allow women to vote. Result is that, we cannot see abject poverty in Pakistan as much as in India and secondly it is middle class in Pakistan that determine political outcome more than poor even when poor are in larger number.
As for his assumptions of voters: Let see what three categories Burki talked about, what can be debatable within his categories with reasons, and what is absurd in his assumptions with reasons again.
Group one: People that became rich and achieved prosperity due to unprecedented economical boom of Musharraf rule. They to Burki number 16 to 20 millions, mostly in Punjab. Burki assumes that 10 millions of them are voters and he believes that only 1 to 2 million would actually vote.
I believe that people in this group numbers around 30 million spread all over 4 provinces. They are mostly educated and have smaller family size, with few children. Their women also vote similar to men. 20 millions of them are voters (having less children means more of them are voters) and most likely 12 million would vote. Many are new upper class with middle class habit of voting, plus insecure when thinking of past corrupts coming back to power again and their prosperity that could easily get eroded because of them, most (maybe 80 percent) would vote and would vote Musharraf government.
Group two: People that achieved partial or no prosperity but can see prosperity and have hopes and expectation to achieve that, are around 55 million people (mostly educated middle class). Burki assumes that 25 millions of them are voters and maybe 20 million of them will vote.
I totally disagree that they no prosperity but yea, they achieved partial prosperity and have hopes and expectations of doing better with time, if economical boom giving to Pakistan by present government stays. I believe that their numbers are much higher than 55 millions, as to me they could be around 70 million.
As Burki, I also believe that they are mostly educated middle class. They have medium size family (2 to 3 children) and their women partially vote, and thus their reasonable numbers are voters, around 40 millions and maybe 25 millions would vote. I believe that most (maybe 60 to 65 percent) would vote Musharraf government as they can see the prosperity, achieved some prosperity themselves, and expect to achieve more. Though, that there are large numbers of voters in this group who would cast votes according to affiliations of various types (political, religious, sect, cast, etc).
It is people in this group along with some people from group three that mostly cause changes in government due to them coming on road, but throughout last 8 years, they were satisfied and showed two fingers to all political parties that wanted them to come out on road against the government.
Group three: According to Burki, recent unprecedented economical growth bypassed them. Burki assumes that they are 90 millions uneducated unprivileged masses, and around 45 millions of them are voters, and that 30 to 35 millions would vote. Burki assumes that most of them are floating voters that anyone can attract whoever can fool them with promises of candy.
I totally disagree with Burki here too. I believe that this group did get some benefits of economical growth and have hope to get more (as category two group), though I believe that they should have got more. Nevertheless, I believe that poor must heave got benefits of prosperous Pakistan both direct and indirect ways.
With prosperity, demand as well as cost of labour has increased and that means more jobs with higher wage and opportunities for all, including poor. Anyhow, even vulnerable poor must have benefited a lot too. It is impossible that in Islamic society benefit does not reach poor, as charities increases with prosperity in Islamic society. Most Pakistani madrasas are running on charity, Edhi trust runs on charity, Imran made hospital on charity money, etc. There are many schools, colleges, hospitals running in Pakistan on charity and similarly millions get fed from charity money every day. Since prosperity of rich in Islamic society (like Pakistan) increases charity a lot, poor had to benefit when country becomes rich.
I also believe that instead of 90 millions they are no more than 70 millions. Most are non-voters (contrary to what Burki believes) as they have large families (around 4 to 5 children) and that means probably 25 to 30 millions of them are voters. Again I do not believe that huge majority of them would vote (what Burki believes) as it is this category where women mostly do not vote. I believe that at most 15 millions from this category would vote and good number would vote Musharraf government, though their votes are affiliated with personalities and parties due to various reasons (political, religious, sects, cast, etc), not a lot could be said about their votes.