I don’t buy your both reasons,
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Obama Administration didn’t make any major shift in Policy, the preemptive strike policy, War on Terror is still continuing with full force. If their is anyone in the world thinking that the policies will change then i will say stop living in the state of denial, US as super power policies are not dependent on one country or current President. They are fully researched policies made after particiaption from hundreds of Think Tanks and extraordinary minds of west for decades to come.
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Yes Oil Prices did play a role but very little, Russia also has gas/coal and research facilities in nearly every field. When we talk about current Russia we forget about the USSR, all of the scientific knowledge, military capability, Regional/World influence is now part of Russia these are the real strength of Russia which Putin is trying to control under the banner of Nationalism.
I disagree here again,
Musharraf played the double game with west - agreed 
, well it were to be played even if their was Zardari/Nawaz sitting in President House. Pakistan has its own interest too, we have our own sphere of influence which we will keep protecting no matter what, examples are: Afghanistan, Sir Lanka, Bangladesh, Mynammar & Bhuttan.
Threat perception for Pakistan existence is now 50/50 divided among East & West borders. Before West enter into Afghanistan it was 90 for East & 10 for West.
China/Russia has interests in the region, if the world find out after 50 years that Western defeat in Afghanistan was because of Pakistan double playing, i will not be surprised. That’s a logical conclusion.
Lets see, currently he become more powerful after leaving the President post 
..