outlook…
Oklahoma - Clark/Kerry/Edwards surging in last few days
South Carolina – Edwards/Kerry
Arizona-- Kerry/Clark
Missouri—Kerry
Delaware —Kerry
New Mexico—Kerry
North Dakota -Kerry (but 40% undecided)
utd, what are the chances of a kerry/edwards ticket?
Howard the Duck looks like he has been flambayed.
He may not even pull the 15% vote he needs to get any delegates in a single state except maybe New Mexico. From front running, Time magazine cover, almost annointed candidate to dead horse in 4 weeks. It's hard to recall a bigger and faster meltdown in modern politics. Gary Hart comes to mind but I don't remember him having the kind of lead that Howard had.
Last week Edwards stated he was not interested in a VP position as he is running for President, that's not going to stop people from talking about it as that is an attractive ticket to run against Bush/Cheney(?).
UTD
in youir vioew would any of these candidates agree to be on the ticket as the VP of another candidate?
from what I know, those who could be a good running mate have said no..clark, edwards and i think dean. those who have not been doing well and would thus not be good running mates but i dont think they will go for it anyways...i.e. lieberman
and then those who dont have a chance and would be a liability as a running mate, but have not clearly said that they will not accept it i.e. sharpton and kucinich.
okay possible scenarios..assuming that none of the presidential candidates become the running mate of the winner here.
who could the possibly pick as a running mate
if kerry gets the nod, who would he pick
if edwards gets it, who would he pick
I have not listed others because i dont think they have a realistic chance of getting the nomination. but if for scnario development sake you want to note who clark may pick and who dean may pick, please do so.
and if you really want to humour me, u can even tell me who sharpton will pick :)
^ In choosing both VP and Presidential candidate, you’ve got to consider that service in the Senate does NOT appear to be a very good platform upon which to mount a successful campaign. This is a pretty remarkable fact: Since the 1932 Presidential election, only one President has been elected whose last job was Senator (John Kennedy). 4 of our last 5 Presidents were governors of states in their last job before being elected President.
Given that both Kerry and Edwards are Senators, chances are that they should not/can not choose another Senator as a running mate. The best tickets are balanced in terms of philosophy and in terms of experience. Kerry as a career politician and Washington insider probably needs an outsider and an administrator as his running mate. Non-politician Wesley Clark is probably his perfect running mate if he’d accept the VP role. As supreme NATO commander, Clark could claim great administrative skills, is an outsider, can claim Southern roots, and can combat the “weak on defense” charge very well.
Theoretically, a Democratic governor of one of the battleground states would be a good fit for Edwards. You’ve got first term DEM governors in NJ (James E. McGreevey), Mich (Jennifer Granholm), Ill (Rod Blagojevich), and Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell). But, I’ve never heard anything about any of these folks and don’t know their popularity or personality. Anyone know anything about these people?
MV
thanks for the analysis, very helpful. So in trying to balance the ticket they may be looking outside..makes sense.
as far as Ed Rendell goes. he is not as celebrated as rudy guiliani, but I was in philly when rendell was teh mayor, and had several opportunities to meet him at civic and university events. he really cleaned up philly.. the revival of philadelphia happened under his leadership. as a matter of fact if you were in philly in the late 80's and compared it to late 90's you would see a much improved city. a very intelligent man, who was a natural to take over as governer as Tom ridge moved on. he was immensely popular and well liked as a mayor dont know how popular he is as a governer.
Rod Blagojevich in Ill so far is proving to be a pretty good governer. but then compared to our last governer George Ryan, ferdinand marcos would have been a good choice.
Both are centrists, rendell may be a little more liberal than rod, but all in all both appear to be pretty solid governers.
Edwards wins South Carolina by a comfortable margin. Projects CNN.
^ Edwards had 44.8% votes - not a bad night for Kerry either - he had 29.7% of votes - Al Sharpton finished third with 9%
Mean Dean is gone. 
South Carolina results at http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/primaries/by_state/SC_Page.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS#TOP
Do or die for Clark in Oklahoma.
John Kerry wins Missouri and Delaware states with substantial margin - dead-heat in Oklahoma between Kerry Edwards and Clark - Clark is leading at the moment - Edwards at second and Kerry at third.
With Joementum gone, Lieberman quits race. Dennis and Al staying on. No shame, there. :)
Dean already eyeing ..... California?!? Thats a month from now, you dodo!
he has a slim chance in souther states.. California is his best bet..
Clark won Oklahoma so he's still in the race..
So can someone give me the rundown of the winers? I overslept this morning and didn't have time to watch the news.
Here is what I found on BBC, so does this mean that even though Dean didn't win any state, he still is second in the race?
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In the aftermath, it looks to me like it's a two man race: Kerry and Edwards. With all due respect to Clark, I can't in my wildest imagination see the DEMs picking a candidate with zero political experience. He simply does not evoke the image of a Dwight Eisenhower. He is not an adored military hero widely acclaimed and loved for victories accomplished under his watch.
If Kerry does not win either Tennessee or Virginia next Tuesday, Edwards will really be able to pound away on the theme that he is the only DEM who can beat GWB. Kerry would then have to convince voters that he can beat GWB without winning any of the South. A very risky strategy that defies conventional wisdom.
So far, the DEM primary voters who say they voted for the candidate that they felt was most likely to beat GW have voted pretty heavily for Kerry. If Edwards can steal this mantle from Kerry by winning in both Tenn and Virginia, it will be a real fun two-man race all the way to the convention. I'd really like to see these two guys debate mano-o-mano a few times.
Ahmed ji, this will give you a clear picture.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by PakistaniAbroad: *
he has a slim chance in souther states.. California is his best bet..
Clark won Oklahoma so he's still in the race..
[/QUOTE]
Dean has got chance to win Wisconsin - a liberal and progressive state - he is eyeing for win there - and is 11 delegates ahead against John Edwards - who has more chances in Virginia and Tennessee than John Kerry himself.
If Dean couldn't make a cut in Wisconsin - i think this race will come down to Kerry and Edwards - Clark won Oklahoma but not with substantial margin - Edwards was thousand + votes behind him.