http://www.dawn.com/2002/11/25/ebr5.htm
How many mega gas pipelines do we need?
By Sultan Ahmed
How many mega pipelines does Pakistan need to carry gas from neighbouring countries to meet the shortage that will arise after 2007?
Senior officials concerned with the gas industry claim the country has surplus gas now - which is not the experience of the domestic or industrial users and industries which want to use gas instead of electricity - and this surplus will last until 2007 after which large supplies would have to be pumped in from gas-rich countries close by like Iran, Turkmenistan and Qatar.
The alternative is hitting a very large gas find like the Sui gas field which had a total capacity of 10 trillion cubic feet when it was discovered in the 1950s of which 60 per cent has now been used up.
Small gas wells are being discovered in sizeable numbers and with delightful frequency, and they are supposed to have saved the country some $700 million of imports of oil this year.
To fill the large gap expected five years from now and reduce the heavy oil import bill Pakistan is negotiating with three countries - Turkmenistan, Qatar and Iran. And the negotiations have been going on, off and on, for the last almost ten years.
All the three countries and Pakistan are members of ECO {Economic Cooperation Organisation of ten Muslim countries) and the negotiations are usually revived following meetings of the ECO summit. But they don’t make much headway because of the very large sums involved and the need for largely Western countries to make those large investments. But political uncertainties in the region, economic instability and global recession have stood in the way.
The three projects together are expected to cost Rs 11- 15 billion. No detailed feasibility studies have been made. So much of the cost estimates are guess estimates. The length of the pipeline or where it emanates from in the source country and where it ends in the receiving country or Pakistan also matter.
Pakistan would have also to invest on developing the gas distribution system sufficiently to cope with the additional supply and not only to substitute its depleted gas. Currently while Pakistan is in surplus in respect of gas that is in the gas wells and not at the gas distribution centres in the towns and cities or at the thermal power generating stations, which want to substitute their fuel oil with gas which is cheaper.
Pakistan is now actively negotiating with all the three countries. And it has set up an interests gas committee with Munawar Basir as its head to negotiate with those countries and he says: "We are keeping all options open which are in the pre-feasibility mode and would take along which suits us best and keep our rights protected.
But what matters could be not only our interests as we would not be making those large investments but also interests of the large foreign investors or the financiers. Ultimately are we to opt for one pipeline or two or three. In our efforts to be too smart can be lose many of the interested investors in view of the region’s political uncertainties as well?
What is to be the future of Saddam Hussain and the role of Iraqi oil in the world economy. Currently the world oil prices have come down as Saddam has accepted the UN demand to let inspectors look for his weapons of mass destruction. What next as President Bush wants to see an Iraq without Saddam Hussain, something which father Bush could not do in 1991.
Currently the shortest and the cheapest line (guess estates) is Turkmenistan-Pakistan line via Afghanistan with a length of 1,400 kilometres and a cost of $3.2 billion. The US is interested in that pipeline, Alan Larson, US deputy secretary of state, for commerce who visited the region has affirmed his support and financial assistance for that. The US is interested in helping Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan through that line with Afghanistan receiving the royalty upto $500 million. American petroleum companies like Unicol and Delta Petroleum were earlier interested in building the pipeline and carrying the gas to Pakistan. Who will be the financiers of the pipeline now?
The company building the pipeline from Turkmenistan and operating it and Turkmenistan itself, are interested in the pipeline carrying the gas to India as well. That would make the cost of carrying the gas lower and the return from the investment on the pipeline better and result in higher sale of gas. But India at the moment is not interested in any gas pipeline passing through Pakistan which gives control over the gas supply to Pakistan as well as royalty payment.
The same reservation of India is standing in the way of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline passing through land to India. India prefers the pipeline to pass under water but through the territorial waters of Pakistan. Pakistan objects to that and wants the pipeline to pass by land assuring India that it would not interfere with the line. Even otherwise Pakistan would not want to annoy Iran, particularly during a regional crisis or threat of war, when Pakistan’s dependence on Iran becomes greater.
American oil companies are not interested in funding that pipeline because of the strained relations between the US and Iran. Now the giant semi-official Russian gas company of Gazprom has sprung into action and shown interest in building the pipeline via Pakistan; but Indian deputy prime minister L.K. Advani has objected to that arguing India has a national security problem with Pakistan.
Then comes the long discussed Qatar-Pakistan gas pipeline. Pakistan has now earnestly resumed negotiations with the Crescent Petroleum of Sharjah for a “gas sales and purchase agreement.” The company had submitted a Gulf-South Asia - GUSA project to the Pakistan government last year. And now Mr Mohammad Makkawai of the GUSA pipeline project says the Crescent Petroleum has deleted India as the destination of the pipeline.
In fact the pipeline from Qatar was pursued in the 1990s earnestly when the civil war in Afghanistan was at its worst and there was small hope of getting gas or electricity from Central Asia. But after the situation in Afghanistan improved and the US got more interested in that country the Qatar project receded.
But if the Western oil and gas companies, or the US companies have to put in large sums, conditions in Afghanistan have to improve greatly and there has to be peace in the areas through which the pipelines has to pass.
Even if Qatar has deleted India from its deal, making India a part of the deal is beneficial to all the parties, including India. As the pipeline becomes larger the unit cost of supply of gas for Pakistan will become lower. Pakistan will receive rent or royalty for pipeline passing through it territory to India. And while Pakistan can receive the gas it needs through the pipeline, if it has a surplus it can pump that into the system and get paid for it.
Mr Basir talks of not only getting gas through the pipeline but also of pumping the surplus into the line in view of the increasing discoveries of gas in Pakistan which have been pretty dramatic in recent months. So it would be good to have a facility to sell the possible surplus gas while we are open to receiving the deficit.
The pipeline system covering India too is good for that country as well because that country has acute shortage of both power and gas, and its economy will be far better for an assured supply of economical energy. And the pipeline will strengthen South Asian economic cooperation on an assured basis while India complains of the lack of it as a reason for small excitement for SAARC meetings.
But in trying to negotiate with two many parties we should not prove to be clever by half. If we are investing a part of the capital it would have been a different ball game. Instead expect others to foot the total investment bill. And while the cost of each project is too many large and the beneficiary countries too few, the political uncertainties are too many. In fact as early as 1995 the government of Pakistan and Qatar had appointed a technical committee to speed up the Qatar-Pakistan pipeline but little that was tangible followed thereafter.
What is certain is the gas that we will receive at the factory-domestic end eventually will be far more costly than the Pakistani gas. In fact even the local gas is expected to rise to world price level within three years under the agreement with international aid agencies. But more expensive gas is better than no gas, except that taxes seem to make it far worse.
With nothing in hand for funding the project save the need for energy we should not overstate our terms or overplay our hand. We should not come to a station in which we have none to negotiate after we had too many.
Another person saying our gas will run out by 2007!!!