Re: Pakistan's Economy :Midyear Review
Sources:
TABLE 1: ACTUAL SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY (MILLION ACRE FEET (MAF)
=================================================== **
**Period Kharif Rabi Total
======================================================
Normal (1977-01) 67.1 36.4 103.5 **
*2000-01 59.7 21.4 81.1 *
*2001-02 54.7 18.4 73.1 *
*2002-03 62.8 25.0 87.8 *
*2003-04 65.9 31.5 97.4 *
*2004-05 59.1 23.1 82.2 *
*2005-06 70.7 30.6* 101.3
======================================================
**SOURCE: **Ministry of Food and Agriculture
-- As of January 5, 2006.
TABLE-2: AREA AND PRODUCTION OF MAJOR CROPS: **
*============================================================================ *
*Crop Area(Million Hectare) Production(Million Tons) *
*=========================================================================== *
*2004-06 2005-06 2004-05 Original Current Original Current % Target Position 2004-05 Target Position Change *
*========================================================================== *
*Cotton 3.193 3.247 3.124 14.265 15.0 12.700 -11.2 **
*Sugarcane 0.966 0.955 0.900 47.244 50.095 40.100 -15.1 *
*Rice 2.519 2.533 2.531 5.023 5.000 5.500 9.5 *
*Wheat 8.329 8.415 - 21.562 22.000 - - *
**===========================================================================
**SOURCE: **Crop Outlook 'Ministry of Food & agriculture
TABLE-3: MONTH-WISE GROWTH IN LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING (%)
=========================== **
*Month Growth *
*=========================== *
*July 2005 10.4 *
*August 2005 12.8 *
*September 2005 12.5 *
*October 2005 9.3 *
*November 2005 15.2 *
*July-November 12.0 *
**===========================
**SOURCE: **Federal Bureau of Statistics
TABLE-4: PRODUCTION OF MAJOR GROUPS OF LSM:
=============================================================
July- Weights Nov 2005 **
**============================================================
A.Food, Beverages & Tobacco 14.546 9.2 **
*B.Textile & Apparel 24.492 13.8 *
*C.Leather Products 2.272 17.8 *
*D.Paper Printing & Publishing 0.600 9.4 *
*E.Pharmaceuticals 18.162 15.0 *
*F.Chemicals 7.472 12.4 *
*G.Petroleum Group 7.824 2.9 *
*H.Tyres & Tubes 0.303 -10.7 *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Non-Metallic Mineral *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*I.Products 4.192 6.9 *
*J.Basic Metal Industries 3.504 -60.3 *
*K.Engineering Industries 5.405 4.8 *
*L.Electricals 2.485 28.6 *
*M.Automobile 3.255 33.4 *
**============================================================
**SOURCE: **Federal Bureau of Statistics
TABLE -5: TAX COLLECTION BY CBR (RS BILLION)
=============================================================
July-December % 2004-05 2005-06 Change
=============================================================
A. Direct Tax **
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 88.9 119.5 34.4 *
*Refund/Rebate 10.5 15.3 45.4 *
*Net 78.4 104.2 32.9 *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*B. Indirect Tax *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 220.4 246.2 11.7 *
*Refund/Rebate 36.3 27.4 -24.5 *
*Net 184.1 218.8 18.9 *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*B.1 Sales Tax *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 138.3 149.3 8.0 *
*Refund/Rebate 28.9 17.2 -40.4 *
*Net 109.4 132.1 20.8 *
**-------------------------------------------------------------
B.2 Central Excise **
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 23.6 25.4 8.0 *
*Refund/Rebate 0.0 0.1 0.0 *
*Net 23.6 25.3 7.4 *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*B.3 Customs *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 58.5 71.5 22.2 *
*Refund/Rebate 7.4 10.0 36.6 *
*Net 51.2 61.5 20.1 *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Total Tax Collection *
*------------------------------------------------------------- *
*Gross 309.2 365.7 18.3 *
*Refund/Rebate 46.8 42.6 -8.8 *
**Net 262.5 323.0 23.1
=============================================================
**SOURCE: **Central Board of Revenue
TABLE -6: FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS: **
**============================================================
2005-06 2005 2005-06 (BE) (Jul- (Jul-Sep) Dec)
============================================================
Total Revenues (i+ii) 990.3 236.6 498.4 **
*i)Tax Revenues 775.4 164.9 364.0 *
*ii) Non-Tax Revenues 215.0 71.7 134.4 *
*Total Expenditures (a+b) 1275.4 274.3 658.6 *
*a) Current 1019.5 223.7 537.5 *
*b) Development & Net Lending 265.8 50.6 121.1 *
*- PSDP 272.0 50.7 121.5 *
*Overall Deficit 285.0 37.7 160.2 *
**As % of GDP 3.8 0.5 2.1
============================================================
**SOURCE: **Central Board of Revenue
TABLE 7: PROFILE OF MONETARY ASSETS (MILLION RS)
=============================================================================
Credit Plan FY Cumulative Flows 06 Sectors 1 Jul 05 1 Jul 04 Original to to 31 Dec 05 31 Dec 04
=============================================================================
*1. GOVERNMENT SECTOR BORROWINGS 120,000 62,350 30,549 *
*a. Net budgetary Barrowing 98,000 78,301 25,421 *
*b. For Commodity Operations 20,000 -15,123 205,376 *
*c. Net effect of Zakat Fund/Privatisation 2,000 -829 1,331 *
2. NON-GOVERNMENT SECTOR (A+B+C) 320,000 294,145 268,907 **
*A. Credit to private sector (i+ii) 330,000 297,651 284,703 *
*i. Commercial banks 295,864 284,581 *
*ii. Specialised Banks 1,787 122 *
*B. Credit to Public Sectors Enterprises (PSEs) -10,000 -1,994 -11,183 *
**C. Other Financial Institutions (SBP credit to NBFIs)0 -1,512 -4,613
*3. Other Items (net) -75,000 -55,595 -58,265 *
*4. Net domestic assets of the banking system 365,000 300,901 241,191 *
*5. Net foreign assets of the banking system 15,000 -64,572 3,302 *
6. Monetary Assets (M2) 380,000 236,329 244,492 (12.81%) (7.97%) (9.83%)
==========================================================================
*P = Provisional *
**SOURCE: **State Bank of Pakistan
TABLE-8: WEIGHTED AVERAGE MONTHLY LENDING AND DEPOSIT RATES JUNE-01 TO DECEMBER-05
Deposit Rate Lending Spread Libor 6-Months Rate T-Bill
July 2002 4.02 12.08 8.06 1.863 6.40
August 2002 4.31 11.46 7.15 1.815 6.40
September 2002 3.93 11.89 7.96 1.751 6.37
October 2002 3.97 11.48 7.51 1.618 6.34
November 2002 3.87 10.66 6.79 1.471 4.76
December 2002 3.60 10.31 6.71 1.383 3.84
January 2003 3.21 9.95 6.74 1.383 3.19
February 2003 3.04 9.36 6.32 1.270 2.09
March 2003 2.81 8.26 5.45 1.262 1.64
April 2003 2.62 7.75 5.13 1.27 1.80
May 2003 2.41 7.09 4.68 1.23 1.80
June 2003 1.90 7.58 5.68 1.10 1.66
July 2003 1.70 5.12 3.42 1.14 1.21
August 2003 1.60 5.02 3.42 1.20 1.21
September 2003 1.50 5.20 3.70 1.18 1.61
October 2003 1.45 5.32 3.87 1.24 1.61
November 2003 1.45 5.29 3.84 1.23 1.66
December 2003 1.42 5.68 4.26 1.21 1.64
January 2004 1.34 5.04 3.70 1.18 1.64
February 2004 1.32 5.30 3.98 1.17 1.68
March 2004 1.30 4.69 3.39 1.15 1.74
April 2004 1.21 5.07 3.86 1.34 1.84
May 2004 1.21 5.42 4.21 1.59 2.08
June 2004 1.21 5.05 3.81 1.87 2.08
July 2004 1.20 4.63 3.43 1.98 2.52
August 2004 1.20 5.08 3.88 1.99 2.62
September 2004 1.22 5.84 4.62 2.17 3.01
October 2004 1.18 6.01 4.83 2.30 3.19
November, 2004 1.21 5.94 4.73 2.62 3.73
December 2004 1.30 5.92 4.62 2.70 4.16
January 2005 1.35 6.68 5.33 2.89 4.16
February 2005 1.37 6.17 4.80 3.02 4.79
March 2005 1.43 6.57 5.14 3.27 5.50
April 2005 1.55 6.78 5.23 3.38 7.08
May 2005 1.71 7.66 5.95 3.48 7.82
June 2005 1.85 8.21 6.36 3.61 7.94
July 2005 2.06 9.07 7.01 3.83 7.97
August 2005 2.16 9.00 6.84 4.01 8.10
September 2005 2.21 9.46 7.25 4.05 8.14
October 2005 2.31 9.74 7.30 4.35 8.14
November 2005 2.37 9.77 7.40 4.55 8.26
December 2005 2.55 9.53 6.97 4.69 8.24
**SOURCE: **State Bank of Pakistan
TABLE-9: MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS AT KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE (KSE)
Last Working Day of the Aggregate Market Capitalisation Month KSE Share Index (Rs Billion) $ Billion ============================================================
July 2002 1787.6 412.5 6.9
September 2002 2018.8 458.3 7.8
December 2002 2701.4 581.2 10.0
January 2003 2545.1 554.8 9.5
March 2003 2715.7 589.7 10.2
June 2003 3402.5 746.4 12.9
July 2003 3933.4 836.2 14.5
September 2003 4027.3 907.3 15.7
December 2003 4471.6 922.0 16.1
January 2004 4841.3 1254.8 21.9
March 2004 5106.7 1346.1 23.4
June 2004 5279.2 1402.8 24.1
July 2004 5289.9 1410.2 24.1
September 2004 5217.7 1469.6 24.8
December, 2004 6218.4 1696.1 28.5
January, 2005 6747.4 1834.8 30.9
February 2005 8260.1 2262.7 38.2
March 2005 7770.4 2114.8 35.6
April 2005 7104.7 1977.5 33.2
May 2005 6857.7 1890.7 31.7
June 2005 7450.1 2036.7 34.1
July 2005 7179.0 2013.7 33.8
August 2005 7796.9 2188.0 36.6
September 2005 8225.6 2329.7 39.0
October 2005 8317.4 2373.2 39.7
November 2005 9025.9 2551.2 42.7
December 2005 9556.6 2747.6 45.9
**SOURCE: **State Bank of Pakistan & KSE.
TABLE 10: KSE VS OTHER STOCK EXCHANGES JANUARY 01, 2005 TO DECEMBER 16, 2005
========================================================================
EXCHANGE INDEX DATE CHANGE 1-Jan-05 16-Dec-05 Points %
========================================================================
KSE KSE-100 6,218.40 9,514.83 3,296.43 53.0 **
*Seoul Composite 895.92 1,321.04 425.12 47.5 *
*Colombo All Share 1,506.89 2,155.00 648.11 43.0 *
*Mumbai BSE 30 6,602.69 9,284.46 2,681.77 40.6 *
*Tokyo Nikkei 11,488.76 15,173.07 3,684.31 32.1 *
*Brazil BVSP 26,196.00 33,291.82 7,095.82 27.1 *
*Frankfurt Dax 4,256.08 5,353.66 1,097.58 25.8 *
*Amsterdam AEX General 348.08 436.17 88.09 25.3 *
*Paris CAC 40 3,821.16 4,704.41 883.25 23.1 *
*London FTSE 4,814.30 5,531.60 717.30 14.9 *
*Jakarta Composite 1000.23 1,143.43 143.20 14.3 *
*Australia AORD 4,053.10 4,590.90 537.80 13.3 *
*Singapore Straits Times 2,066.14 2,325.53 259.39 12.6 *
*Argentina Mer Val 1,375.37 1,524.50 149.13 10.8 *
*New Zealand NZSX 50 3,064.44 3,281.90 217.46 7.1 *
*Hong Kong Hang Seng 14,230.14 15,029.81 799.67 5.6 *
*NYSE NASDAQ 2,175.44 2,252.48 77.04 3.5 *
*Bangkok Set 668.10 691.17 23.07 3.5 *
*Taiwan T. Weihhted 6,139.69 6,350.69 211.00 3.4 *
*NYSE D. Jones 10,783.01 10,875.59 92.58 0.9 *
*Kuala Lumpur Composite 907.43 893.37 -14.06 -1.5 *
**China Shanghai Composite 1,266.50 1,127.51 -138.99 -11.0
========================================================================
**SOURCE: **Karachi Stock Exchange
TABLE 11: INFLATION RATE (CPI)
===============================================================
July-December Item 2003-04 2004-05 2004-05 2005-06
===============================================================
CPI (General) 4.6 9.3 8.8 8.4 **
*Food Group 6.0 12.5 12.6 7.6 *
*Non-Food Group 3.6 7.1 6.2 9.1 *
**Core Inflation 3.7 7.0 6.6 7.6
==============================================================
**SOURCE: **State Bank of Pakistan
TABLE 11: STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS ($ MILLION)
Particulars July-December % 2005-06* 2004-05 Change
A. Primary Commodities 758.2 583.1 30.0 **
Rice 526.9 356.8 47.7
Raw Cotton 37.4 62.7 -40.2
Fish & Fish Preparation 98.5 75.5 30.5
Fruits 59.9 50.6 17.6
**B. Textile Manufactures 4898.4 3847.9 27.3
Cotton Yarn 648.0 475.1 36.4
Cotton Cloth 1045.3 823.4 26.9
Knitwear 902.9 897.3 0.6
Bed Wear 1026.7 557.9 84.0
Towels 288.4 238.9 20.7
Readymade Garments 660.8 430.4 53.5
C. Other Manufactures 1537.2 1304.5 17.8
Carpets. Rugs & mats 125.8 128.5 -2.1
Petroleum Products 324.0 184.5 75.6
Sports Goods 136.4 135.1 1.0
Leather Tanned 135.4 146.6 -7.6
Leather Manufactures 365.0 251.1 45.3
Surgical G. & Med.Inst. 74.4 87.2 -14.7
Chemicals & Pharma. Pro. 170.8 159.0 7.5
Engineering Goods 92.8 80.6 15.0
D. Others 879.2 786.1 11.8
Total 8073.1 6521.6 23.8
*-- Provisional *
**SOURCE: **Federal Bureau of Statistics