Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Pakistan at the precipice

The Preview by Daniel Brettig
October 1, 2012
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Match facts

October 2, 2012
Start time 1530 local (1000 GMT)[TABLE=“width: 320, align: right”]

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[TD=“class: stryPicCptn”]Will Shahid Afridi stay up the order for Pakistan? © AFP

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Related Links
Features : Hafeez the hesitant

Players/Officials: Brad Hogg | Mohammad Hafeez
Matches: Australia v Pakistan at Colombo (RPS)
Series/Tournaments: ICC World Twenty20
Teams: Australia

Big Picture

One poor showing, against India no less, has suddenly thrown Pakistan’s World Twenty20 campaign onto far less certain ground than it had occupied solidly since day one of the tournament. Another loss to Australia, the competition’s most assured and dominant team so far, and the Pakistanis will be highly unlikely to make the semi-finals. It is a harsh scenario, but a reflection of the competition’s format, calling for consistent results. The hesitance and doubt evident against India must quickly be shed from the minds and limbs of Pakistan’s cricketers, but the looming possibility of elimination may not aid the return of a state of focus.
By contrast, Australia know they do not even need to win to progress, for they will qualify for the semi-finals unless Pakistan can inflict the sort of thrashing George Bailey’s men have commonly dealt out so for, and a similar margin unfolds in India’s match against South Africa. So far led with exceptional poise and power by the irrepressible Shane Watson, the Australians have not had their depth of batting tested. Nevertheless, the likes of Michael Hussey and Cameron White have shown decent touch in their brief stays at the crease, and the confidence of all players has benefited from Watson’s show of strength.
These two sides are very familiar with one another, having contested T20 and ODI series in the UAE as a prelude to this event. Australia began that T20 series floundering, and ended it with growing confidence. They have gone up another notch or three since, while Pakistan have been shaken by the India defeat. Mohammad Hafeez’s team will hope to regain the confidence they showed in Dubai, or risk elimination from an event they looked in with a chance to win a few days ago.
Form guide
(completed matches, most recent first)
**Australia **WWWWW
Pakistan LWWWLWatch out for

The outstanding display by Xavier Doherty on his recall to the team has placed some pressure on Brad Hoggfor his spot in the XI, should Australia wish to revert back to a one spinner policy against teams better versed at slow bowling than South Africa. Hogg has bowled tidily enough during the tournament, and offered plenty of energy in the field. But he has only two victims at a cost of 53.50 so far, and will need to provide a greater impact on the wickets column as the tournament reaches its pointy end.

Plenty of chatter has surrounded Mohammad Hafeez’s surprisingly halting display with the bat and in the field against India. While there is some understanding at the occasion getting the better of Hafeez and his team, Pakistan’s captain must show greater steel against Australia in order to push his team to the next phase. Hafeez should be helped by a return to the top of the bowling attack, for his spin has troubled David Warner in the past.Team news

Pakistan can either make changes in reaction to the heavy defeat against India or keep faith with the XI that had previously looked so poised at this event.Pakistan (probable): 1 Mohammad Hafeez (capt), 2 Imran Nazir, 3 Nasir Jamshed, 4 Kamran Akmal (wk), 5 Shoaib Malik, 6 Umar Akmal, 7 Shahid Afridi, 8 Umar Gul, 9 Yasir Arafat, 10 Saeed Ajmal, 11 Raza Hasan
Xavier Doherty will be very difficult to drop from Australia’s XI following his exceptional 3 for 20 against South Africa.
**Australia **(probable): 1 David Warner, 2 Shane Watson, 3 Mike Hussey, 4 Cameron White, 5 George Bailey (capt), 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Matthew Wade (wk), 8 Brad Hogg, 9 Pat Cummins, 10 Mitchell Starc, 11 Xavier Doherty
Pitch and conditions

As expected, the Premadasa Stadium surface is growing more sluggish and spin friendly with each passing match. It will not be too far removed from the Dubai surface on which Australia and Pakistan last met.Stats and trivia

  • A win for Australia would equal their longest winning streak in T20Is, a span of six matches at the 2010 World T20 in the Caribbean
  • Defeat for Pakistan would have them miss the semi-finals of the World T20 for the first time. They were finalists in 2007, winners in 2009 and beaten semi-finalists in 2010

Quotes

“Things are just falling my way at the moment, I suppose. Things can turn and your form can go against you so you’ve got to make the most of it while you can.”
Shane Watson hopes he won’t have to wake up soon.

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Razzaq has mostly done well with Australia...so he should be included for sure....Don't need so much spin...

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

That means you do not read thread before replying :smiley:

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

So what happens If Aussies win tomorow and South Africa win over India, will Pakistan still be out?

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

in that case it will be decided on RR b/w Pak, Ind and SA

other scenarios are

Pak wins, Ind loses : Pak through to semi
Ind wins. Pak loses: India through to semi
Pak win, Ind win: will be decided on RR b/w Ind, Aus and Pak

so equation is more complex for Pak as their match is before SA/IND game so there will be X factor. SA/IND will know exactly what they need to do to go through.

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

**
4th scenario and IMO most likely scenario**.. Both Pak and India loses.. It will come down to run rate and will depend on how big the loss is. If south Africa wins big then can also be through. South Africa and India will have advantage as they play last and will know what to do.

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

tumhari umar ka to pata nahi, lekin aqal ke hisab se to bachay hi lagtay ho bhateejay ji ;)

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

That is the first scenario that I addressed. First line :)

and here is more detailed scenario analysis:

Group 2
**
Australia**
With two huge wins in as many matches, Australia are the best-placed team in the tournament. For them to go out, both Pakistan and India will have to win their matches by around 40 runs (if they bat first and score 160).
**
Pakistan**
Pakistan's defeat to India - and the margin of that loss - has put their semi-final hopes in danger. Their NRR has dropped to -0.426, which is only marginally better than those of India and South Africa. If Pakistan lose to Australia, an Indian win will knock them out without NRR playing any part. Even if South Africa beat India in this scenario, Pakistan's chances remain bleak: if they lose their match by five runs (chasing 161), and if South Africa score 160 and beat India by the same margin, then Pakistan's NRR will be poorer than South Africa's.
Pakistan's passage is not straightforward even if they beat Australia. Even after winning, they'll have to hope that India don't beat South Africa by a bigger margin and sneak past them. If, for example, both Pakistan and India score 160 and win their last matches by ten runs, then Pakistan's NRR will be marginally lower than India's.
**
India**
Like Pakistan, India too need to win to have any realistic chance of qualification. If India concede 160 and lose by more than three runs, their NRR will slip below that of South Africa. If India and Pakistan both win their matches, the margins of those results will decide which team goes through.
**
South Africa**
South Africa are the only team that can be knocked out even before their match starts. For the second time in a row, they will be hoping Pakistan lose because if Pakistan win the first match on Tuesday, it will mean curtains for South Africa.
However, if Australia do beat Pakistan, South Africa have a fair chance of making it to the next round, thanks to poor NRRs of India and Pakistan. As mentioned above, if South Africa score 160 and win by more than three runs, their NRR will go above India's, enough to qualify provided Australia have won all their matches. The advantage for South Africa and India is that they play the last game of the group, and will thus have an exact knowledge of what they need to do to qualify.

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Hence we did not do service to our-self by even trying to keep RR as high as possible even if we were losing against India. Just delaying India's win by 1 over could have boosted our RR but...

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

^ This is exactly where Hafeez lost the plot. He gave them easy singles instead of attacking. Now they must win and hope SA beat India as well.

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

^ Kul ka first game yee decide karey ga k 2nd game follow kerna hai k nahi :D

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

sorry bhai....

not always thought...but sometimes yeah...I don't read all of the thread...u know me..I am in and out over here...

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

awww... just kidding AA. You can post it as many times as you want ..... :)

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Its Simple We Have Win And Sa Have to win

Or we have to lose and India have to lose

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Bring back Razzaq for Arafat plzzzzzzzz

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Aur aapka yeh tabsiraa padh ke aapki damaaghi umr ka andaaza bhi ho gaya, Captain chachu :D

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

All the scenarios aside...simple two pronged scenario that will gaurantee Pakistan a spot in the semi is:
1. Pak Beat australia.
2 Saffies beat india.

Done.

Everthing else, Pak should be checking return flights..

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Hafeez tenu khuda da wasta ae kal batting na kri pehley

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

Its lke 1992 all over again

Pak needed Aussies to beat Windies since they were at 9 points while windies were at 8 points. A Windies win would have given Windies 10 points to put them ahead of Pakistan.
Aussies were down and out with 6 points only...they needed to save face. They beat windies to push pakistan into the semis.

Now Pakistan must beat Aussies and then hope that Saffies who have zero points so far, try to get something out of this Super 8 stage and beat India.

Let see!

Re: Pakistan vs Australia - World T20 Super-8 match - Oct 2, 2012 - Columbo

kiya hoa....dar lag raha heay...:)

Its only a game ...don't live and die for a sport...it won't save you any where specially not infront of your Lord.