Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
This is absolutely disgraceful. How can political parties participate in elections that are presided over by a dictator. 
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
JI and JUI on opposite sides?
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
JI and JUI on opposite sides?
They have been on the same side since 2002 under the MMA umbrella, but the JUI-F holds the majority of the seats, and particularly the governments slots in NWFP and Balochistan. The JUI of Fazlur Rehman has traditionally made alliances with secular parties i.e. BB, while the JI of Qazi Hussain is moving into a virtual alliance with Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. As soon as the election is announced the MMA is likely to agree a gentle divorce and each go their own ways. This will allow the pro-govt parties to choose to build an alliance with JUI-F or PPP, or even a broader undestanding with both.
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
what group had walked out of MMA earlier?
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
what group had walked out of MMA earlier?
JUI-S (Sami). But they only had one Senator and a couple of MPA's in the NWFP assembly, so their impact was limited.
It's the JUI-F that holds the vast majority of elected seats of the MMA. followed by JI.
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
A lot of feverish talk now that parliament could be dissolved anytime in the first 10 days of July. That could mean an election in the first week of October. I believe this is why PPP and JUI-F are heading towards a 3-way agreement with the government, which will leave the PML (Nawaz), JI and PTI on the spot. Will they participate in an election that will be presided over by the Uniformed President Musharraf, as they have so many times previously said they would not?
What I believe that there would be no poll this year whatever the news. President Musharraf would get elected for next 5 years with his uniform this year before assemblies would get dissolved, at end of this year. If that would not happen, I would be very surprised. Poll for assemblies would happen next year in January or February and most likely PML (Q) would come to power again with bigger majority.
Why Musharraf would get himself elected with present assembly? It is not because government is worried that they would lose the election, but to me, there are at least five reasons.
First reason: President really does not need election to stay in Power. His power base is army support and it seems that he still has that support. Fortunately he also has a lot of public support and that is just an extra advantage. Still, President does not need public support though he likes that, for whatever reason. Hence President would get himself elected just to follow the constitution, else in reality, that election is just an unnecessary exercise.
Second reason: Majority of Pakistanis do not care about Uniform. Majority do not even care who rules and how they came to power. Majority do not even care for election. Majority are more involved in their day to day life. On top of that, as things have improved over last few years, majority would like to see President re-elected with his uniform. If that re-election occurs, majority of Pakistanis would not mind, rather they would be happy. So, no need to wait for after election.
Third reason: A bird in hand is better than two birds in bush. Going through election that has guaranteed result is better than contesting election where there is a chance of re-election, even if that chance is 95 percent. At present, according to constitution, presidential election is due between 15th Sept and 15th October, and whatever assembly would be there, would vote in that election (that means present assembly). Government has majority and thus no point to break the constitution just to please some barking noises. Thus, government would do what constitution demands, that is electing President from Present assembly, not because they respect constitution that much, but because that is most convenient at the moment.
Fourth reason: If government does not hold Presidential election in between 15th Sept and 15th October, same opposition would start barking that government has broken the constitutional requirement. For breaking such constitutional requirement, President neither government would gain anything but would only lose. Even if they would win the coming election, opposition would keep accusing the government of rigging, and they would also start shouting that army rigged the election, so that President Musharraf could get re-elected again.
Fifth reason: If Presidential election would not be held before Assembly election, Presidential election and president in uniform would become an election slogan for opposition and that would mean, it would affect the result of election adversely for government. Pakistan is a funny country where there are voters as well as winnable candidates who like to support party that they expect would win the election and form the government. Many who are undecided may stay undecided and a part in confusion of election result might support opposition party.
Government at present is in majority to elect President without requirement of cooperation from any political party. Hence if they would do that before election, they would enter the election with Presidential election out of the way. That means, many undecided would start supporting the government party and that would result in government party doing much better in coming election and winning higher majority.
So, my conclusion is that Presidential election is going to happen before general election. I believe that opposition knows that, but just to keep pressure on government and to keep many voters and winnable candidate undecided, they are making Presidential election an issue. Most in media may also know that, but when paid hefty sum of money by past corrupt leaders in opposition, they are bound to bark. So, let the drama keep unfolding but I believe that as time would pass, things would become clearer.
As for contesting election under President in uniform or not, they have their choices. That is to contest or not. If they do not, they would only going to make life of government party easier, as government party would win the election with greater majority easily. Its like when MQM did not contested first local election under President Musharraf, JI came into power with handful of votes and in result, first mayor of Karachi was of JI. Thus boycotting the election would be fine for government. It would be blessing in disguise if some party (or even all party) in opposition do not contest election under a President in Uniform. In such circumstances, government party would win huge majority and if that majority would be of two--third they would even be able to play with constitution as they like. Who cares? :)
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
In addition to above: Another thing we should remember is that, suppose if there was intention that Presidential election would happen from next assembly, than in my opinion, time has already passed for that. If that was the intention, assembly would have got dissolved in around January 2007. Reason being that Pakistan budget comes at end of June. Under present situation when not even budget has gone through, dissolving the assembly is almost impossible. There is possibility in early July, but that also is questionable as than there would be no time left to conveniently hold Presidential election within the framework of constitution, that demands Presidential election between 30 days and 60 days before President term expires. That for President Musharraf is between 15th Sept and 15th Oct.
Once assembly is dissolved, neutral interim government would need to get setup that would monitor the process of coming election. This interim setup would normally last 90 days. After that, some days are given for new assembly to choose leader of the house. Once leader of the house is chosen, he is given time to take vote of confidence. Then when everything would get settle than only it would be possible for Presidential election from that assembly. Now it is anyone’s guess that all this is practically impossible to happen before 15th Oct (last date for Presidential election for President Musharraf under the constitution).
Thus, all prevailing circumstances on ground shows that, President would get elected from present assembly. Assembly would get dissolved after the Presidential election. 90 days after the date of dissolving the assembly, most likely in January or February 2008 new election would be held.
[Well, I might be wrong but that is what I believe. I also believe that Present government has no advantage in leaving Presidential election on next assemblies even if they believe they would win the election. They also have no advantage in not following the constitution even if they do not care about constitution]
Re: Pakistan polls by autumn if Musharraf strikes alliances
Whether the assemblies are dissolved in July, or September after President gets re-elected or expire on time in November, you can be sure it will be with tacit agreement of BB and Diesel. :)