Re: Pakistan economic snapshot 03-07 IMF data
Pakistan** economical problem and trickle down effect of economical growth.**
Using data of IMF: Expected per capita income of Pakistan, India, USA, UK, and Canada for 2007:
Pakistan = 916 dollars (or 55934 Pak rupees)
India = 826 dollars (or 38618 Indian rupees)
USA = 46,085 dollars
UK = 41,959 dollars (or 22448 pound sterling)
Canada = 41,347 dollars (or 46206 Canadian dollars)
Now to say that, 55934 Pakistani rupees a year or 4661 rupees a month is not a sufficient per capita income to live on is certainly wrong (Note: In India, it is Indian rupees 3218 per month).
Per capita income means income per head. That means, average family has income equal to per capita income multiplied by each and every person in the family; that includes even just born. In other words, if a family has 6 people in the household, their income if it is average, it would be 6 times per capita, or in case of Pakistan, it would be Rs 335604 a year or Rs 27,967 per month.
Thus, problem is not per capita income, problem is that most families in Pakistan are living on one person income and have plenty of children, breeding like rabbits. Then, when they could not afford so many kids, survival becomes difficult, they start living poorly and life becomes miserable, they cry.
Just imagine that a person ‘Anwar’ earning 25000 rupees a month, wife is also earning 20000 rupees a month and they have one child. Thus they would have income of Rs 45000 a month, and with one child, their household per capita would be Rs 15,000 a month (45000 divided by 3), more than thrice Pakistan average. [Only one person (child) in the household is economically unproductive]. This family would be living in middle class area and they would be able to afford good life (with few mouths to feed and one child to care and educate). This family is living on over thrice the per capita income of Pakistan (or have household income of 10 times per capita income of Pakistan).
Another person ‘Bakar’ earns 20000 rupees a month, wife is not earning and they have two children. Thus, they would have income of Rs 20000 for 4 people, thus would have per capita of Rs 5000 a month. [Here we have wife and two children economically unproductive]. This family is living on almost equal to the per capita income of Pakistan.
On the other hand, third person ‘Chaman’ is also earning 20000 rupees a month, wife is not earning and they have 4 children. The person also supports his both parents who are old and do not work or have any income. Now, this household has 8 people in the family, thus their per capita income would be Rs 2500 a month. [Here, we have 7 people, that is wife, parents and four children, all are economically unproductive]. This family is living on half the per capita income of Pakistan.
Now Classic average Pakistani case: There is fourth person ‘Dagga’ who is earning Rs 15000 a month. Unfortunately, he is competing with his local imam in producing children. His only activity is to work and come home to produce kids. He has 11 children, 12th on the way. He also looks after his old parents. Thus, in his household, there are 15 people. They are him, his wife, 11 kids, and 2 parents. Now though his income is Rs 15000 per month, his household per capita income is Rs 1000 per month. [14 of those 15 people in his household are economically unproductive]. Thus, this family is living on slightly over one-fifth of the per capita income of Pakistan.
So, we have four examples above. Income of all earners is Rs 25000 to Rs 15000 a month. But per capita income of household varies from Rs 15,000 a month to Rs 1000 a month. So, whose fault is it?
Obviously, family that has Rs 15000 a month per capita household income would be living nicely whereas the person with Rs 1000 per capita household income would barely survive, living in slumps.
Problem does not end there. Those who would have Rs 15000 household per capita income per month (Anwar above) would give better education and other facilities to their only child and when the child grows up, he would be earning much more. On the other hand, this guy (Dagga) with 12 kids, most likely, he would leave his kids to play in slums, stay uneducated, and would be living a deprived life with little care and attention.
[Note: Worse problem is that, those in Pakistan that have multiple incomes and few kids (like Anwar), have higher earning capability too as they are mostly educated and economically more creative. Reason being that most of them themselves come from family that had good income and few kids, thus their parents cared for them and gave them good education. Most of them have inherited a bit too, as their parents also earned a bit and had few kids to share their wealth. Most likely, he would have married an educated woman that having one child, would have enough time to get engaged in productive employment (as university teacher, medical doctor, banker etc), creating and thus contributing good income to the household.
Thus, even though in example, income difference is little (Rs 15000 to Rs 25000), reality is that, Anwar could be earning 75000 a month, his wife could be earning 30000 a month, and thus his household per capita income would be Rs 35000 a month (combined income of Rs 105,000 a month). This family would keep getting richer and affluent, as they would have reasonable savings from their income, most likely they would be knowledgeable investor too, and thus would be investing their savings, giving them increase income and accumulating wealth. When their child would grow, he could expect to inherit a lot of wealth too.
On the other hand, the guy (Dagga) most likely would be earning Rs 10,000 a month rather Rs 15000, and thus his per capita household income (with 15 people in the family) would be Rs 666 a month (or one-seventh the per capita income of Pakistan). Unfortunately, he and his children are born to stay in slums for generations and no government could do much about that. Dagga and his family would stay poor for generations, whatever the economy of the country. This guy (Dagga) would keep grumbling and complaining, expecting that government would come and make him equal to Anwer (guy in the first example). But that would be impossible for any government.]
Well, only hope for this guy (Dagga) is that country becomes so rich (per capita income of Pakistan increases by 10 to 15 times in real terms) that even at the lowest level, he gets decent life. Though comparatively, Dagga would never be able to compete economically with Anwer. Barring exceptional cases, Dagga and his kids are born to serve Anwer (directly or indirectly).
A thing to remember is that, people like Dagga are there in all countries (worse in richer countries); that includes USA or UK, living on household per capita income of even less then one-tenth the national average or lower. Only difference is that, USA economically became so rich that those Daggas of USA are also living reasonably.
Just imagine, a person in USA earning 50000 US dollars a year, is earning only one times the USA per capita income of 46085 US dollars a year. Actually, earning 50,000 dollars a year in USA is like a person in Pakistan earning Rs 5000 rupees a month (as per capita income of Pakistan is 4661 rupees a month or 55934 rupees a year). Both are earning similar amount of money with respect to the economy of the respective country they are living (that is one times the per capita income).
Now, our above Dagga in the example is earning Rs 15000 rupees a month; that is more then 3 times the per capita income of Pakistan. If that dagga was in USA, earning 3 times the per capita income of USA, he would have been earning 150,000 dollars a year. That means, someone earning Rs 15000 a month (Rs 180000 a year) in Pakistan is getting same proportion from Pakistan economical output for that year (2007), as a person earning 150,000 dollars in USA is getting proportion from American economical output for that year (2007). That is, both are earning 3 times per capita income of their country.
But there is big difference. The one in USA would have a wife who would be earning too, plus very few children, hence his household per capita income would be much higher.
Though, even if the position is same, that is the American earning 150000 dollars a year also have 15 in the household and none earning except him, making household per capita income of 10000 dollars a year, or one fifth USA average, he would still going to live nicely, not because he is rich American compare to other American, but because his country, USA is rich.
Note: Earning 150,000 dollars a year in USA means taking from the American economy same amount what a person earning Rs 15000 a month (or Rs 180,000 a year) in Pakistan takes from Pakistan economy.
Nevertheless, though both are earning same proportion from the economy (3 times per capita), there would be big difference in the living standard of a person earning 150,000 US dollars a year in USA and a person earning Rs 15,000 a month in Pakistan (Rs 180,000 a year).
Reason is that, Pakistan even though has grown a lot in economical terms during last five years, Pakistan is still very poor. Per capita income of Pakistan is US dollars 916 whereas per capita income of USA is US dollars 46,085, or over 50 times (expected 2007 figures).
When President Musharraf came to power in 1999, this difference was much higher (63 times) but it is narrowing (now 50 times). As it would narrow, poor of Pakistan would start living better, even though income difference may not change as much.
This is call trickle down effect of increasing economy that even though poor comparatively stay poor in comparison to rich, still their living becomes better as country becomes richer. This trickle down effect has happened in all western countries. Result is that, people earning modest 2 to 3 times per capita income in western countries can afford a lot in life and feel rich, even though comparatively they are amongst poor of the country.
Actually, even if a couple earning half the per capita income each, that is combined income of husband and wife is 50000 dollars a year in USA, and they have one child, still they could afford a lot and live reasonable in USA, just because USA is rich (have high per capita income), even though this family is amongst poorest Americans.
It is this trickle down effect, where rich becomes engine of economy, making the economical growth increase substantially, and in process they drag the poor into living a good life.
Economy where government interferes in the process, trying to reduce the rich-poor gap forcefully, rich and able leave the country or stop working hard and giving their best output. That results in country economically stagnating and thus poor living in poverty and misery, always. So, no one gains, country, rich or poor.
Note: Comparison of USA and Pakistan per capita income at various times:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/01/data/dbcoutm.cfm?SD=1980&ED=2007&R1=1&R2=1&CS=3&SS=2&OS=C&DD=0&OUT=1&C=564-111&S=NGDPPC-NGDPDPC&RequestTimeout=120&CMP=0&x=49&y=16
1980
USA = 12255 dollars
Pakistan = 411 dollars (Rs 4075)
Thus, USA per capita income was 30 times that of Pakistan (in dollars)
1988 (Zia died)
USA = 20834 dollars
Pakistan = 466 dollars (Rs 8992)
USA per capita income increased to 44 times that of Pakistan (in dollars)
1999 (Last year of Nawaz Shareef)
USA = 33196
Pakistan = 526 dollars (Rs 26831)
USA per capita income increased to 63 times that of Pakistan (in dollars)
2007 (expected for coming year)
USA = 46093 dollars
Pakistan = 920 dollars (Rs 57610)
Contrast to earlier trend, during Musharraf rule, USA per capita income decreased to 50 times that of Pakistan (in dollars)
Thus, from 1980 to 1999, USA per capita income multiple kept increasing (from 30 times in 1980 to 63 times in 1999). After Musharraf came to power, this trend has changed and now it has started decreasing (it has decreased from 63 times to now 50 times).
We should realise that this multiple takes a long time to increase (USA per capita income multiple increased from 30 times in 1980 to 63 times in 1999, that was 29 years span. Now to get back to 30 times or less (1980 position) could take some time too. Thus, we can just pray, hope for the best and keep our finger cross and be patient. To get better off takes time, sometime longer then to get worse off. [Note: I am using data up to 1980, because that is what I can quote using IMF figures given on their website].
Pakistan** economical turnabout and Myth of 9/11: **
Another thing I would like to say is that, some people have made it a habit of giving credit for all economical turnabouts in Pakistan, to 9/11 and USA.
First of all, USA aid to Pakistan during afghan war was 10s of time more than what Pakistan got from USA and all other sources, after 9/11. Still, through out, Pakistan was struggling (as per capita dollars multiple of USA with respect to Pakistan per capita shows that it was increasing throughout during Afghan war).
Second is that, all those help after 9/11 does not even account to around 5 billion dollars (in debt write off, charges to USA for facilities and other help Pakistan received from all sources). Actually some help that was coming to Pakistan before 1998 (before Pakistan nuclear explosion) got stopped and did not start until recently. Japan use to give yearly aid of 500 million dollars before nuclear explosion that got stopped and I do not know if it got started even now. Plus, due to 9/11 Pakistan incurred a lot of trading losses because of being a country in war zone.
After Musharraf took over, many aid and economical help stopped due to military rule clause related to aid from most countries, still Pakistan dollar reserves increased to record high of around 4 billion dollars before 9/11.
Nevertheless, even if we take account of all helps after 9/11 from all sources, it does not come to 5 billion dollars. The effect is that, no help to Pakistan economy, as, if we deduct 5 billion dollars from reserve, all aid becomes zero and Pakistan would still have all economical positions same, though reserve would be around 8 billion dollars instead of 13 billion dollars (as at moment, reserve is around 13 billion dollars and if one minus 5 billion dollars related to all aid and loan write off, still 8 billion dollars is left).
Only benefit of 9/11 was that, Pakistan relationship with world countries became better and Pakistan managed to trade freely, that it could have done under any civilian government, but was restricted due to nuclear test and later military takeover after 1999.
So, all this economical turnabout is nothing to do with 9/11, debt write off, debt rescheduling, aid etc, as propagandist and chailay chamchay of NS and BB wants all to believe, rather it is to do with prudent government policy, professional economical management and most importantly less corruption (trademark of NS, BB and Z).