Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
:k:
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Also, don't forget when Nawaj left, Pakistan only had $500m in foreign reserves.
Read how they went up after 9/11, banning of the hundi system, remittances, etc
Anyways, all available to read on the net if you are so inclined
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Read how they went up after 9/11, banning of the hundi system, remittances, etc
Anyways, all available to read on the net if you are so inclined
Cant you read what I wrote what was already achieved before 9-11 (even when Pakistan was under sanctions)?
Do you think I wrote something lie? :) Well, I think that I have already wrote all this before with references. Though, if you do not believe what I wrote, you can easily find them out :)
Actually, there were many positives that already started and was happening in Pakistan before 9-11. Unfortunately, some growths actually dampen out after 9-11, that includes Pakistan rate of increase in tax collection and foreign trade (including exports).
As for remittances, I believe that it was same before and after 9-11. Registered remittance increased not because 9-11, but because government started paying same rate as it was available from hundi (still, even now, registered remittance is much lower than real remittance).
Most people started sending remittances officially rather through hundi, because now it is easy to send money officially, and official rate is similar as one can get sending dollar through hundi, and it is less risky. [At one time, official rate of exchange was better than hundi rate]. Nevertheless, remittance started increasing much before 9-11, and it would keep increasing as government is making easier sending money officially, thus people shunning hundi. [Though there is no banning of hundi. One can even send money now from UK using hundi, but exchange rate that use to be very attractive is not there, as well as there is much higher risk as sometime 'hundi bloke' can disapear with money].
Government is even giving incentives. Like if one send money to Pakistan regularly and officially, one can get Passport without paying renewal fee, as well as can get extra duty free allowances when returning to Pakistan. There are other facilities for person remitting regularly using official channel, like special treatment at the airport.
It seems Pakistan government is competing with hundi operators business like to attract remittance by people using official channel. Hence, government attracting increasing remittance through official channel is obvious.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Also, don't forget when Nawaj left, Pakistan only had $500m in foreign reserves.
Well, for some people, truth hurts :)
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Apart from various sites on net, please look at these sites:
www.statpak.gov.pk
and
www.sbp.gov.pk
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
sa1eem, i found the following:
large scale manufacturing : 8.8%
services: 8%
agriculture: 5% (wow!!)
all very impressive rates. its amazing how pak has managed such a high growth rate for agricultural sector despite near saturation in area since decades. great stuff.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
sa1eem, i found the following:
large scale manufacturing : 8.8%
services: 8%
agriculture: 5% (wow!!)
all very impressive rates. its amazing how pak has managed such a high growth rate for agricultural sector despite near saturation in area since decades. great stuff.
Yea, it is amazing :), but when there is will and commitments, there is ways.
Pakistan is still far behind in agricultural sector with respect to potential, and can increase output many fold. There are lot of programs going on to increase agricultural output. One that happened was use of army to line the canals that stopped water seepage. Resulting in extra availability of water as well as stopping land salinity and water logging. Since water was not wasted due to seepage, it reached much further down the canal, to those lands that rarely use to receive water in normal time. Government is also trying to introduce trickle farming.
Actually Pakistani farmers follow many wrong practices that affect their output and need education plus investment to overcome that. Education to farmers is very important, that can increase agriculture out put many fold. Just imagine that Pakistan per acre output for any product is many folds lower than developed countries. If proper farming is done, Pakistan with less use of water can produce at least 10 times more output even on present cultivated land.
There is prospect of bringing huge track of lands for agriculture that at present are desert, especially in Balochistan, but in Sindh too. Government has made many small dams in Balochistan to store water that use to go waste before. That would help people to get drinking water during all seasons, as well as water for their agriculture.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Superb factual post. :k:
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
7.2% GDP growth target for coming year.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
I wonder if the 'bhagorays and lootairays' achieved year on year GDP growth rate on average above 7%.
Does any of the supporters of 'bhagorays and lootairays' know the answer? :)
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
As mentioned by many commentators, eight years of lost chances, especially after money came flooding in shortly after 9/11
http://www.dawn.com/2007/06/10/ed.htm#2
Eight years of missed opportunities
MANY people may have forgotten the fact that Mr Shaukat Aziz is Pakistan’s finance minister, and has been for almost eight years under the same leader, and is now Pakistan’s longest serving finance minister. It is very probable that by this time next year, Pakistan will have a new prime minister and a new finance minister (and many hope, a new president). Hence it is an opportune moment to examine the economic record of the Musharraf regime.
Although we have had a finance and prime minister for some years now, we know that the policy, with regard not just to the economy but more or less everything else that relates to Pakistan, comes from President Pervez Musharraf.
If one were to go by the huge advertisements placed in the press by the government about its achievements, it seems that the last almost eight years, have been Pakistan’s best ever, and that this has been an era of plenty. For those who are old enough to remember, they will recall a similar campaign celebrating the ‘decade of development’ in 1968. They will also remember that the government of Ayub Khan was toppled following mass protests soon after. With so many parallels between 1968 and 2007, one would have hoped that the media campaign managers would have read their history before embarking on this self-congratulatory exercise.
The half-page advertisements of the campaign, ‘When Pakistan prospers … Pakistanis prosper’, or its Urdu version, ‘Kahani naheen, haqiqat’, presents 10 carefully selected indicators related to the economy, all of which make the government look very good. The advertisements show a set of statistics for the year 1998-99 and compare them with figures for 2006-07.
For example, the main advertisement, shows that the size of Pakistan’s economy has almost trebled, exports doubled, remittances gone up five-fold, and so on. On every count, the government looks very good. However, in order to understand the nature and impact of these numbers, one needs to go well beyond a set of carefully chosen, highly favourable set of numbers, and also examine them in a context where some more substantive comparisons can be made. Let us just take a handful of the prosperity data presented by the government.If one looks at exports, for example, the data suggest that exports have risen from $7.5 bn in 1998-99 to $17.5bn in 2006-07, clearly a substantial achievement as depicted in the charts. However, this hides the fact that today, as in 1998-99, the composition of exports has hardly changed and Pakistan still exports around 62 per cent of cotton-related products.
Moreover, the expectations that following the end of trade-related restrictions Pakistan’s textile exports would surge have been proven wrong. Pakistan’s exports continue to stagnate and have not diversified. Besides, any figure showing exports needs to be seen in the light of imports and a country’s trade and balance of payments, and on both counts, Pakistan’s statistics are far worse than they have ever been.
Similarly, the much touted $14bn foreign exchange reserves figure, while the ‘highest ever’, is exposed for its real worth, i.e. its ability to buy imports. In 2002-03, for example, following the 9/11 bonanza which the government received, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were lower than what they are currently but were equivalent to 33 weeks of imports. Today, the record reserves are worth a mere 18 weeks of imports, about the same as in 2001-02. No prosperity on this front.
Exactly the same logic can be used to show that most of the figures being paraded as indicators of prosperity, are false, or hide far more than they reveal. Remittances, for example, while the highest ever at around $5.5bn, are supply driven and governments cannot claim any credit for their increase. Because of the huge rise in the price of oil and surging incomes in the Gulf resulting in an economic boom, there has been more money available to be given to migrant workers, who are remitting it in huge amounts and numbers. This has happened globally over the last five years and Pakistan is no exception.
Moreover, the more interesting question worth asking the ministry of finance is, what has happened to the nearly $23bn remitted to Pakistan since 2002? Why have foreign exchange reserves risen by a mere three billion dollars in the last four years? These questions lead on to the missed opportunities which would really have made Pakistan prosper.
In terms of economic possibilities, no government could have had it as good as General Pervez Musharraf’s following 9/11. With the economy’s biggest problem throughout the 1990s – that of its huge debt – being dealt with by it being rescheduled and partly written off a few days after 9/11, no government could have hoped for a greater windfall.
Debt repayments had been the biggest constraint on the economy in the previous decade and were the main reason for the economy performing poorly in the 1990s. Following 9/11 sanctions, too, were lifted or relaxed, and aid, which had been curtailed during the 1990s, came back in unprecedented amounts. Moreover, on account of 9/11 and due to the boom in the Gulf, remittances touched astronomical proportions easing the pressure on Pakistan’s current account deficit. If only previous governments had been so fortunate.
It is this embarrassment of riches in a flawed policy framework, by a government which, until very recently, has been in full control for more than seven years, that makes one suggest that much ‘prosperity’ that has taken place has been due to fortuitous circumstances, rather than to active engagement with key problems in the economy. In fact, by avoiding serious and urgent issues, this government has ridden its luck, passing the buck on to the next government.
Key failures, and there are many, include the inability to expand the tax base, despite growth in incomes, in terms of numbers, revenue collected, and more importantly, by not being able to diversify the tax base. It is difficult to believe that even now, highly lucrative forms of earning wealth – such as the stock market – are exempt from substantive taxes, as is agricultural income. Health expenditure is still a mere 0.7 per cent of GDP, and education spending continues to be the lowest in South Asia. This despite unprecedented fiscal space created after 9/11. Regarding the power sector, all there has been is talk, and no urgent measures have been taken, the absence of which is beginning to undermine the ‘prosperity’ of recent years.
Perhaps the government’s biggest failure on the economic front has been its blindness to address questions of growing disparity, both in terms of incomes and regions. While its advertisements show that per capita income may have risen to $926 per capita, they hide the fact that this prosperity has been unequal and uneven. Some regions and individuals may have prospered, but all research shows that the differences between individuals and regions have grown markedly. Inflation too, is at its highest in many years.
These are exactly the same truths which were hidden in the advertisements when the government was celebrating its decade of development in 1968, at a time when a popular movement was gaining momentum. Are we on the cusp of a repeat performance?
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
The obvously don’t. Leading international institutions like Moodys, Standard Chartered, the IMF, World Bank etc etc have praised the stunning development of the Pakistani economy under Musharraf and Aziz. ‘bhagorays and lootairays’ will only cry at that sort of news. 
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Can someone to the math and work out what Pak's GDP would be if between now and 2030 (so 23 years) we grow at an average of 6% and also if it aves 7%?
Take $130bn as the base. (2007)
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Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
The base is closer to $150 billion - up from just 71 billion in 1999.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/01/data/dbcoutm.cfm?SD=1999&ED=2007&R1=1&R2=1&CS=3&SS=2&OS=C&DD=0&OUT=1&C=564&S=NGDPD&RequestTimeout=120&CMP=0&x=30&y=10
I’ll do the stats till 2030, based on year on year growth of 6% and then 7%, and then post it here. 
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Pakistan GDP growth forecast – based on average 6% growth year on year till 2030.
2007 – $150 billion.
2008 - $159 billion.
2009 - $168.54 billion
2010 - $178.65 billion
2011 - $189.37 billion.
2012 - $200.73 billion
2013 - $212.77 billion.
2014 - $225.53 billion.
2015 - $239.06 billion
2016 - $253.40 billion.
2017 - $268.60 billion.
2018 - $284.72 billion.
2019 - $310.28 billion.
2020 - $328.90 billion.
2021 - $348.63 billion.
2022 - $369.55 billion.
2023 - $391.72 billion.
2024 - $415.22 billion.
2025 - $440.13 billion.
2026 - $466.54 billion.
2027 - $494.53 billion.
2028 - $524.20 billion.
2029 - $555.65 billion.
2030 - $589 billion.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
^^ thats the amount that USA spends on its military
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
It is still a big improvement for Pak if they achieve that. Pak is a developing nation, you cannot compare it to the US.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Pakistan GDP growth forecast – based on average 7% growth year on year till 2030.
2007 – $150 billion.
2008 - $160.5 billion
2009 - $171.73 billion.
2010 - $183.75 billion.
2011 – $196.61 billion.
2012 – $210.37 billion.
2013 – $225.10 billion.
2014 –. $240.86 billion.
2015 - $257.72 billion.
2016 - $275.76 billion.
2017 - $295.06 billion.
2018 - $315.72 billion.
2019 - $337.82 billion.
2020 - $361.47 billion.
2021 - $386.77 billion.
2022 - $413.85 billion.
2023 - $442.83 billion.
2024 - $473.83 billion.
2025 - $507 billion.
2026 - $542.49 billion.
2027 - $580.47 billion.
2028 - $621.11 billion.
2029 - $664.60 billion.
2030 - $711 billion.
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
^^
Must be the minimum aim, insha-allah. What's the population rate of growth, and what would that leave gdp/cap at?
Also, these are nominal stats, yeah?
Re: Pak GDP growth 7.02 pc this year.
Can someone to the math and work out what Pak's GDP would be if between now and 2030 (so 23 years) we grow at an average of 6% and also if it aves 7%?
Take $130bn as the base. (2007)
The war on 'terror', and ensuing benefits, behind the post 9/11 gains, willunfortunately not last till 2030