Re: Only 15 percent of people approve of Musharraf’s job performance
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=12899
PPP to poll 50 pc votes: IRI survey
By Shakil Shaikh
ISLAMABAD: Fifty per cent voters will exercise their right of franchise in favour of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto as most Pakistanis have made up their minds that the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) should not win in the forthcoming general elections to be held on February 18.
In a recent survey of Pakistan public opinion, conducted by International Republican Institute (IRI) from January 19 to 29, 2008, the PPP topped the field garnering 50 per cent in the national sample. The PML-N was second with 22 per cent and PML-Q came in third with only 14 per cent. The IRI randomly selected sample of 3,485 adult men and women from 223 rural and 127 urban locations in the 50 districts in all provinces of Pakistan.
According to the public opinion poll, the PPP led with 44 percent in the Punjab, with PML-N in second at 32 per cent and PML-Q a distant third with 19 percent; in Sindh, the PPP far outdistanced the field with 74 per cent; in NWFP, the PPP led with 37 percent, the PML-N came in second with 18 per cent, and the Awami National Party in third with 12 per cent; in Balochistan, the PPP garnered 44 per cent, with the PML-Q a distant second with 15 per cent.
Regardless of the actual outcome, Pakistanis have already made up their mind that the PML-Q should not win. When asked which party would win the most seats if the elections were free and fair, 58 per cent responded PPP, 22 per cent said PML-N and 13 per cent said PML-Q. Further, when asked if they would think the elections were free and fair or rigged in the event that PML-Q announces to have won the most seats, 79 per cent said they would think that the elections were rigged. And when asked if they would support protests against the government in the event that PML-Q was announced as the winner, 55 per cent replied yes, indicating a potential for post-election turmoil should that event occur.
When asked if they preferred the MQM to remain a PML-Q partner or join the PPP and PML-N, 58 per cent replied PPP/PML-N while 25 per cent replied PML-Q. When asked if they would support a postponement of elections for up to one year, voters were overwhelmingly opposed: 85 per cent said they would oppose such a postponement. 69 per cent supported the idea of President Musharaf’s stepping down and holding the elections under a unity government.
The IRI’s poll also tested potential ruling coalition partnerships. When asked to choose their preference of three potential match-ups, a PML-Q/PML-N coalition received the support of nine percent, while PPP/PML-Q was the choice of 11 per cent. Far out in front was a hypothetical PPP/PML-N ruling coalition, with 72 per cent, selecting it as their choice. PPP voters preferred the PML-N partnership with 89 per cent; likewise, PML-N voters preferred the PPP partnership with 88 per cent support; PML-Q voters preferred their party partnership with PPP (51 per cent) rather than PML-N (37 per cent).
When asked to choose their top candidates for prime minister, 56 per cent opted for PPP’s Makhdoom Amin Fahim, 15 per cent chose PML-N’s Javed Hashmi and 12 per cent supported PML-Q’s Pervaiz Elahi.
In the wake of Bhutto’s death, there is a leadership vacuum. For the time being, PPP Vice Chairman Amin Fahim is filling that void. However, Bhutto’s husband and current party Co-Chairman Asif Zardari and their son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari both have ratings that make them among the most popular in the country.
When asked who they would prefer to lead the PPP until Bilawal comes of age, 66 per cent chose Amin Fahim. He (Fahim) was also the choice of 77 per cent to be PPP’s candidate for prime minister.
When asked which political personalities they like, 66 per cent said they like Amin Fahim, 55 per cent said they like Bilawal, and 37 per cent said they like Zardari. Jailed lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan was liked by 37 per cent as well, an increase of 24 percent since the last survey.
Makhdoom Fahim led the field with 32 per cent with PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif coming second at 23 per cent. Bilawal (14 per cent), Musharraf (8 per cent) and former Chief Minister Punjab Ch Pervaiz Elahi (five per cent) rounded out the top five.
In a province-wise match-up Nawaz Sharif led the field in Punjab with 31 per cent and Makhdom Amin Fahim was number one in Sindh with 57 per cent. Nawaz Sharif led in the NWFP with 27 per cent while Bilawal 24 percent and Makhdoom Amin Fahim (20 per cent) were first and second in Balochistan.
When asked if they were planning on voting, 90 per cent said they were either very or somewhat likely to vote. The details of many other vital parts of this survey, including popularity of President Musharraf, rating of new Army Chief, direction of the country, its economic performance, security and others, would also be contained in the IRI’s poll.
Reuters adds: Seventy-five per cent of Pakistanis want President Pervez Musharraf to quit, according to the survey released by the US-based International Republican Institute on Monday.