garbage throwing going on betwen Dean and Kerry - recent poll shows Kerry to win the New Hampshire with 32% votes - Kerry has also picked up the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters - an environmental organization that had never before backed a candidate in the primary season.
the race is about who comes in 2nd place - Dean, Edwards and Clarke are pushing for that - most likely to get the Independence votes - NH is vastly majority of them.
follow the race in NH at www.politicsNH.com
New Hampshire primary
Who do you think will come in third?
I say if Leibermnn doesn't finish in top-3, he should drop out too. His campaign lost all steam even before it began.
And of messy campaigns, Clark is actually going down steadily. Before Iowa results he was at 20%, now he is at 10%.
So far it seems
I think it'll be
Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Although maybe Dean and Edwards will switch positions.
I'm not sure any of them will be able to beat Bush in the general election.
Kerry
Edwards
Dean
Everyone else
If Edwards get second slot in NH too.. that will be a big big blow for Dean. A Kerry-Edwards ticket might just work.
kerry
dean
lieberman
clark
edwards
.
.
.
.
daffy duck
Saddam Hussein
sharpton
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Fraudz: *
kerry
dean
lieberman
clark
edwards
.
.
.
.
daffy duck
Saddam Hussein
sharpton
[/QUOTE]
You think Edwards magic (I think the "uplifting and positive message" is getting really repetitive) won't work in NH?
Change the third to Rich white lawyer from NC
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ahmadjee: *
Change the third to Rich white lawyer from NC
[/QUOTE]
then i'd have to change the 4th to Rich White Lawyer from Yale too..
It's so easy for the Republicons.. they already have the Rich White LIAR from Yale..
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
You think Edwards magic (I think the "uplifting and positive message" is getting really repetitive) won't work in NH?
[/QUOTE]
Well clark and lieberman did not run in iowa.
Lieberman is from the northeast so he may get some support based on that.
Clark has a diff approach and stands out based on his background.
I mean if I really had to pick edwards.. I dont even know what differentiates him from Kerry. Charisma is one thing but aside from that he has failed to make a case for himself.
Clark surely stands out. If the polls are any indication, he will really be out before someone says "West Point".
Waisay its fun to see a Lieutenant (K) smacking a four-star General (C) in polls.
there is a mix of popular support and differentiation..
the point being, clark dfferentiates himself.. now whether or not he will get enough supporters is a diff issue. but ppl who want to vote for him will not find someone similar.
same goes for sharpton, kucinich and to some extent lieberman. not enough to make them win, but ppl who want to vote for them will not find very similar candidates.
the lack of differentiation got gephardt, and the same lack of differentiation can get edwards.
Kerry looks to be sporting a case of Jaundice, no?
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
You think Edwards magic (I think the "uplifting and positive message" is getting really repetitive) won't work in NH?
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Fraudia: *
I mean if I really had to pick edwards.. I dont even know what differentiates him from Kerry. Charisma is one thing but aside from that he has failed to make a case for himself.
[/QUOTE]
I sort of agree and disagree at the same time. I think Edwards got no press coverage for so long that not many people got to here his basic campaign theme. The "two Americas" thing sounds pretty good delivered by him. Now that he did well in Iowa, the rest of the nation is hearing the story for pretty much the first time. That's why he's sticking to it right now. If it aint broke, don't fix it. Real soon, (maybe it's already a little past due), he's got to come up with more so that people can attach policies to this theme.
IMO, Clark and Lieberman failed miserably to make inroads in NH when they had the stage all to themselves. That means they have no compelling message that the people will rally to. Clark has too big an ego to drop out so soon and will continue on to Super Tuesday even with a 4rth place finish.
Edwards will survive a while longer since he should win SC next week. If he can show a respectable 2nd in a couple other Super Tuesday states, he might make it all the way to the convention although getting enough delegates to win on the first ballot is a real longshot.
NH sets up as a great state for a liberal from Mass to swamp the competition. That Kerry has been slipping since getting the big Iowa boost has got to trouble his campaign. He had the chance to deliver an early knockout blow on Dean and looks to have swung and missed. Dean will look like the comeback kid if he runs a close second to Kerry in NH and Kerry will look to be losing momentum by a narrow win. Kerry will be hurt pretty bad if Dean sneaks by him to win NH.
MV
You got it. I think the rest of these candidates who dont have a real chance are serving as spoilers for some of the other candidates. the leaders have a good percentage of supporters, then you have the laggards..Now if ppl like clark and lieberman fall out later their supporters may go to one or the other camp, but until then the laggards have to take the supporters of the leaders away, not those of the niche players because they will stick with them for principles, kinda like ppl stuck with Nader in presidential elections, even though that spoiled it for Gore.
Fraudia:
The thing is you've got to differentiate between people who have no chance to get the Democratic nomination VERSUS those who have no chance to win an election against Bush. I truly do not believe the country will turn sharply left and vote for a liberal (be he an old-school Kennedy liberal like Kerry or a new-school Shock-Jock, Howard Sternish liberal like Dean). Putting Teddy on the podium with you MAY get you the nomination of your party but it won't attract the independent vote in the general election.
The hopes of Democrats in the general election have got to hinge on some great gaffe being made by GW or a deterioration in Iraq/the war on terror/economy. Absent that, Bush wins. Even given such a deterioration, the alternative has probably got to be someone who is closer to Bush philosophically than someone closer to Kennedy/Pelosi philosphically. Lieberman's philosophy and policy positions are probably pretty close to the possible winning recipe. But he can't win no matter what because he's .... how to put this ..... well.... he's Lieberman. He is not a very attractive guy, he looks old, he is cursed with a voice and demeanor that makes him sound like a whiner, and he is jewish in a country that is not ready to elect a jew as President. Edwards has the opportunity to introduce himself to the American electorate as an attractive, well spoken, honest, intelligent, positive, non-jew, middle of the road Joe Lieberman.
That's the kind of guy the independent voter would accept as an alternative to Bush in the event things went a little sour between now and November. If things don't go too sour, he's the DEMs sacrificial lamb this election but he doesn't cause long term damage to the party by making it appear to have turned sharply left and re-imbraced the failed liberal doctrine.
MV i have always maintained that its W's election to lose. Now what will the dems churn up will play out soon, but I dont think edwards will get the nod atthis point. Things may change and supporters of gephardt. lieberman, clark etc may flock to him once these guys bail..well gephardt already has. But until that happens or we see mass defections in dean and kerry's camp edwards has no chance.
and his message is just not strong enough to create those mass defections.
Newsweek poll taken this past weekend of register voters pitted Kerry against Bush for the presidency.
Kerry won by 3%
How's that for Shock & Awe?
I think its too early for a dem against Bush poll to give any sort of reliable reading on people. Bush hasn't unleashed his election campaign, yet.
I agree though. The re-election is typically for the incumbant to lose. GWB is no exception.
So, people are thinking of Edwards as a centrist-leftie?