Re: Musharraf promulgates PEMRA amended ordinance 2007
The situation worsens for the dictator…
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\06\06\story_6-6-2007_pg7_33
‘NSC meeting shows Musharraf regime’s weakness’
WASHINGTON: The holding of a meeting of the National Security Council and the promulgation of an ordinance giving the government enhanced powers to control the electronic media shows the regime’s weakness rather than its strength, according to a commentary issued by Stratfor.
The commentary says, “Therefore, the generals will be watching the situation more closely than ever and will be considering contingency plans as the political temperature rises in the coming weeks. Then, if needed, they can intervene and force Musharraf to step down in order to avoid risking an ugly confrontation on the streets. For now, the generals figure the anti-Musharraf movement, though growing in size, lacks direction, organisation and critical mass because the main opposition parties remain divided. Put differently, they believe their interests can still be secured through a compromise involving the reinstatement of the chief justice, and perhaps even with Musharraf assuming the role of a civilian president. But Musharraf does not believe he can both compromise and sustain power, which is why he has decided to tough it out in an effort to get past the re-election in September.”
Stratfor argues that the generals would prefer a situation in which they are not forced to move against President Musharraf because they know such a situation does not necessarily help them salvage the position of the institution. Having Musharraf step down could land them in a situation in which the new military leadership would be forced to negotiate a new civil-military power-sharing mechanism with the political forces, and from a position of relative weakness. Part of this has to do with the fact that Musharraf has been reshuffling the military deck so much that most of the top generals have not had much experience in dealing with national politics. “But when the generals know things have reached a point of no return, they will act; this could happen before the end of summer depending on how fast events progress. The prevention of news broadcasts and political talk shows deemed critical of the government on private television channels could prove to be one key step in that direction. Because of the immense popularity of these private channels, the anti-Musharraf movement is likely to gain greater momentum - and rapidly,” according to the US news intelligence service.
Stratfor believes that the growing public unrest will only get worse because the government is determined to deal with the situation by cracking down. Unless Musharraf reverses course and opts for the path of accommodation with his opponents - both among the political parties and with civil society - it is quite feasible that the unrest, which is expected to peak around the time of the presidential vote in September, could surge earlier. Even his key civilian partner, the PML, is starting to show signs of haemorrhaging, indicating that it might not be possible for Musharraf to secure a second term.