*Originally posted by Vonti: *
well, you’ve as much access to official data as I do on the net so if u think u can pull out data from late 80s, be my guest but then we should go back to early 80s when yet another of ur favorite military dictator ameer ul momenin was running the show and we had an almost a-bomb blast – week situation … na??
Zia, and BB were pathetic, Nawaz was somewhat better. Just because i like what this govt has dfone doe snot mean I am a military cronie. pull out early 80's data too. I would say that criome situation got worse then as well, and only now has stablized.
I cant talk about early 80's because I was not there and did not care, i saw zia's folies in mid to late 80's, bezamirs follies after that, and Nawaz who appeared to bea promising change agent...going down the tube.
week situation? I assume u meant weak situation? if you are talking about your argument.. indeed it is..very weak
but – its good now that u r talking numbers. Better than relying on some cousins crime indicator
and the numbers proved you wrong. although, you are making wild assumptions to stick to your point somehow :)
going from 2000 to 2003, there’s an **increase of 7% in murders, not a 4.5% decrease as u put it – perhaps a copy & paste glitch, we can live with that, but then it blows away much of ur claim when u say**
err i said there is a decrease of 4.5% betweeb 2000-2001 and not 2000-2003.. my error in calculation, i write the 4.5% decrease between 99 and 2000 again but then by that token murders went down between 2001-2002 :) I have no issues with admitting when the numbers have gone up, as I noted for overall crimes which went up one year as well.
sure beats double digit crime rate increases like 18% and 12% as we saw in some previous years..atleast in the known mathematics.
** better luck next time!**
nyah, u are the one who need the luck :)
*if u wanna go deeper into details then u’d also have to figure in the increasing probability of crimes not getting reported cuz of lack of police resource. *
oh so now we are using an increasing probability index?.... thats a baseless assumption :)
population correlation is direct, your theory of the probability that people are not reporting is a personal theory at best.
** If the police strength has not grown in proportion to the population growth then obviously with higher population u’ve higher probability of many more crimes not getting reported due to lack of police resources.**
changing the tune now and focusing on the ** possibility** that less crimes are being reported. This has no logical basis rather than your assumption so its not a valid claim :)
Just to educate you a little..police strength is not simply in numbers but also in more effective usage of exisiting number of cops. However we dont know if the numbers of cops went up or down.. # of thanas does not always correlate to # of cops. not that there is some direct linkage and a fact that even if that were to occur , it would result in less crimes being reported.
**So relying on the available numbers from the same site and taking the stats for 5 cities with bigger population:
For Karachi, from 1998 to 2002, while population grew 14.7%, the # of police stations grew from 86(1998) to 100(2002), an increase of about 16%.
For Lahore, from 1998 to 2002, while population grew 14.0%, the # of police stations went down from 74(1998) to 72(2002)
For Faislabad, from 1998 to 2002, while population grew 15.0%, the # of police stations remain same i.e 28
For Pindi, from 1998 to 2002, while population grew 14.4%, the # of police stations remain same i.e 25
For Hyderababd, from 1998 to 2002, while population grew 10.8%, the # of police stations remain same i.e 46
So meray piyaray chum, its obvious that with bigger population vs [over all] lesser police resources available in 2002, u’ve a higher probability of # of crimes not getting into the books and this would in turn easily muddle ur claim of crimes being low against per capita in 2002 **
No its no obvious... its a probability...not a fact...however looking at crimes at a per thousand normalizes the data so u can see real trends.
U know what, there is a probability that ppl did not report crimes, because...they were not happening :)
1) number of police stations does not mean # of police
2) if you can assume that decrease in # of police can cause lesser numbers of crimes being registered, one can make an assumption that police is more effective and can provide better level of service with fewer resources (not that we have proven either that the # of police has gone down or gone up, or that the assumption that if indeed there was a decrease in teh # of cops that people will be unable to report crimes..its just your theory)
clutching at straws chanda. clutching at straws.
*sure, things have improved, but all those ethnic riots, pathan mohajir riots, sohrab goth & hyderabad incidents, they had been happening lot before 90s, they were the products of ur dear ameer ul momenin, why would u wanna count them in the accounts of later governments ?? *
I am basing it on the data you were able to dig up, I have always maintained from the beginning that crime levels were horrible in late 80's to mid ninties.. and I believe gen zia was in power in late 80's, so i was including him among the perps.
*if u r talking particularly with reference to Karachi situation, things had actually started to get better after 95. I’ve no luv lost for BB but I do credit Nasir ullah Babar’s stubborn & persistent efforts that finally broke the backbone of MQM and for the first time MQM was put in its place. MQM learnt the lesson and since then haven’t attempted for an all out gunda gurdi against later governments including musharraf’s. that’s the reason for an improvement not cuz ur tinpot dictator waved his magic wand and made things look better. *
but with nasr ullah babar out of pwer MQM would have started ghunda gardee again if the later govts had not kept them in check...look at over all crime rates jumping between 95 and 98.. appears that whatever headway was made in 95 did not stick..because the raw numbers went up.
*And school/offices closures, ethnic/religious clashes do go on even now and evertime 2 factions of MQM clash, the areas got shut down. Just yesterday, u had parts of Karachi shut down due to tension and there were riots, pelting stones, ransacking of shops etc in Islamabad, all this when writing was obvious on the wall and gov. did nothing to prevent it at least in Islamabad. *
they happen, just not as frequently and not as bad. ask karachi University, NED, Dow and SMC students..add national college and allama iqbal college to the list too. the severity, the frequency of such hungama has gone down considerably.
come up with more ** probabilities ** to stick to your claim...shabaash
:k:
