Good technical analysis. Bravo.
Few questions though.
- why India is giving just the mislabelled shells and not the launch tubes. I mean if someone has to go through the trouble of buying from Israel, then changing the lable, then shipping them all the way to Kabul, to Paktika to South Wazirastan?
When one can easily buy the 82 mm Russian stuff from the black market and at a cheaper rate and also save on Shipping and handling ?
Why are we basing all our analysis on 5 mislabeled mortar shells? I mean there is more than just 5 mortar shells.
What about truckloads of weapons? Can we not link those to India, Russia, China, or Israel?
The launch tubes are available in the region in abundance - 82mm tubes were Soviet Army standard, given to the Afghan army during the Soviet era. Launch tubes don't get used up, the ammunition for them does. As I mentioned, 82mm tubes can fire 81mm ammo (thought he reverse doesn't work).
India already uses the 81mm standard, so ammunition from existing Indian stocks or suppliers could be supplied, rather than requiring locating a new, trustworhty source for 82mm shells.
Linking weapons is much harder. Even during the Soviet Occupation, the USA, UK, Saudi and Pakistan supplied the Afghans with a broad range or firearms, all untraceable, so that the foreign origin of the firearms themselves was hidden.