Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
This Saturday (Apr 22) WSJ stated what was mentioned in post 19 - that Apple at the end od March was 4.4% of S&P500. It also mentioned similar high percentages when attained in the past, resulted in drop of such stocks - MSFT, GE, CSCO. Apple is now 10% off its peak.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
After its blockbuster earnings. Apple shot up ~ 8%. Analysts had been warnimg that Verizon and AT&T will no longer be providing $400 subsidies to customers for the $600 iphones. What they did not anticipate was the strong demand from China. Also, Verizon and AT&T have no choice - customers demand Iphones. Now some guy is calling for $1000 stock price.
Risks:
1) Verizon and AT&T at some point down the road will try to get competing products from Samsung et al.
2) The Chinese providers may not provide such huge $400 subsidies. So Apple may have to sell iphones there at a much smaller price. This should be a drag on margins.
Above is just my unprofessional opinion. As always, this thread is not meant to get people to trade in Apple. Just exchange of ideas/opinions (which are wowrth what you pay for).
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Apple up 12.5% since march 17. So far my thesis has not proved to be correct.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Several alert tweeted texted emailed us that Apple was up 15% from time thread started and not 12.5%. They emphasized OP was even more wrong than he admitted to. Thank you, alert readers. We will ensure such errors are eliminated.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Do you think AAPL will reach$700 today? News of I phone 5 being sold out in pre orders and the upturn of the market is has this stock in crazy upward momentum.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Do you think AAPL will reach$700 today? News of I phone 5 being sold out in pre orders and the upturn of the market is has this stock in crazy upward momentum.
Just stopped short at 696 or 698. Odds are it should cross 700 sometime next week. There have been a couple of articles in the WSJ that have pointed out the risks with this stock. They expect sales to go thru the roof onthe latest iphone version 5. But they dont expect next version to have same impact. Something abt competitoiin catching up. I have no clue. But I agree with you - this stock is now momentum driven. Though so far I have been wrong on this baby.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Closed at 692. Day high was 697
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Just stopped short at 696 or 698. Odds are it should cross 700 sometime next week. There have been a couple of articles in the WSJ that have pointed out the risks with this stock. They expect sales to go thru the roof onthe latest iphone version 5. But they dont expect next version to have same impact. Something abt competitoiin catching up. I have no clue. But I agree with you - this stock is now momentum driven. Though so far I have been wrong on this baby.
iPhone 5 specs are equal to or worse than the Samsung Galaxy S3, which was release earlier this year. With a new Samsung phone hitting the market early next year, the iPhone 5 will look even more outdated. Simply put, Apple has peaked. And this is something even Steve Jobs couldn't have fixed, as the iPhone 5 would have been in the pipeline when he was still alive.
Apple hit a home run in the last decade with three innovative products, but unless they continue to create new markets, I don't think they will keep this up. They will be a dominant player, but not the powerhouse they've been the last 2-3 years. Just my opinion based on their tech. Of course, human nature, and brand loyalty, are another matter. People still worship Apple so sales will be high, and the stock will still be valuable.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
^ the technology space is fullnof creative destruction. One needs to run hard just to stay in the same place. Innovation is great for technology users - businesses and consumers. But the trchnology companies have to pour more and more into R&D just tokeep the competition at bay. While the success stories get a lot of press, the RIMs of this space outnumber such success stories by huge margin.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Agreed. Especially about the R&D. The fact that Apple is suing everybody left and right, and simply keeping up is not a good sign. On the other hand, their brand loyalty is the best in the business, and they have a ridiculous amount of cash stowed away, so they can easily afford to simply get by if they want.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
It is true they have lot if cash. At some point when competition catches up - if it has not already - they will have to resort to following tricks to increase EPS
1) increase share buybacks - most buybacks occur at high price thus destroying shareholder value
2) acquire other companies - most acquisitions associated with overpayment
3) waste R&D dollars in high risk low return projects
4) all of above
670 billion dollar market cap isxabt 300 billion > than nearest. Historically companies with greatest mkt cap Cal flat on their face eventually. Time will tell as clinched goes.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Andy Zaky: Apple will cross $1,000 within 15 months - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech
Apple will cross $1,000 within 15 months
Andy Zaky: Apple will cross $1,000 within 15 months - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech
FORTUNE – The last time Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky issued a public recommendation – as opposed to the advice he administers daily to his paying clients – was May 18.
That day Apple (AAPL) touched $522.18, which Zaky believed was a bottom, and he told anybody who would listen to buy at $530 to $550.
I mention this because Zaky, a former Fortune contributor who now runs the only Apple hedge fund I know of, has a pretty good track record on these things – like four for four. (See here.)
In his May post he predicted that Apple would hit $750 sometime before the end of January. When the stock crossed $700 in after-market trading Monday – up 32% since his last buy signal – he followed up with another public posting – this one laying out his Apple price targets for the next two years. He sees Apple going to
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
That is the beauty of statistics. Someone somewhere is bound to have axgood streak. Ok the stock up 30% since may 18. Market probably up 10% with 2% thrown in as dividend.
There was a guest in CNBC who predicted it reaches 2500$ by 2015 I think.
Always good to do own homework and not chase hot stocks. Never know when music will stop.
iphone bumper cases
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Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Apple has risen from ~ 350 at start of this year to 600, before falling to the currnet 585 level. Its market capitalization is 545 billion dollars. It comrises about 4% of the S&P 500 index. It is now a must own for most stock mutual funds. Some funds, which are not supposed to own stocks, or not supposed to own technology stocks also own it, since everyone else does.
Since ~ 1998, the following companies have had the largest market cap
GE (down from 55 to ~ 20) Microsoft - down from ~ 50 to current 32 Cisco - down from 80 to current 20 Intel - down from ~ 40 to current 27 Exxon - down from ~ 90 to current 85]
No dividends have been considered above - thoug tech hardly paid any dividends till recently.
Other than Exxon, all the stocks in the last 14 years which have occupied the largest market cap crown ever so briefly have tumbled. Is Apple the next Tech goliath slated for a fall? Or is this time different? That is this is not longer the go-go 2000 Tech bubble type scenario?
Full discolsure - as stated earlier in other threads, I own a y-pad, and not an i-pad - so am not technically very savvy.
Apple up 7% since thread started.
S&P 500 up 1.5%. Plus dob yld of 2.2%. So 3.7%. Not big difference. Do in last 9 months this hot stock has been lukewarm.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
I don't know anything about apple however after a quick look at the stock, my view is that the company may do well in the short term, however over the longer term its performance is debatable. It is realistically priced at current price of $610. Samsung is hot on the heels of Apple and secondly Apple would need to keep on producing sought after new products to keep the sales coming in.
Conclusion : Short term -Good. Long Term : ??
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
^ Agreed about long term. They have to run hard just to stay at the same place.
As for short term good, the young and vibrant folks feel the same as you. And they have done well. For those who invest with a long time frame, they would probably stay away.
( I wish with 20/20 hindsight I had swooped it up at 75 in Spring 2009!
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Apple at 595. Up a measly 1.4% since thread started on Marchv17. Could this be the long expected return to sanity?
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
Seems cheap at current prices. The company holds significant amount of cash. Pipeline is good for next 1 or 2 year but after that its future is debatable.
Re: Is Apple stock overvalued?
I was not much concerned earlier that AAPL stock is down or it had a missed earning report but after the big management shakeup this week I am very concerned about the future of Apple.
How can they let go of Forstall as a result of office politics?? APL is experiencing the void that Steve left. He built a team that made apple a powerhouse and it took only one year since his demise that we see cracks in the Apple management.