I guess they are day dreaming about it.
India Journal: What If India Raided Pakistan?
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/05/03/india-journal-what-if-india-raided-pakistan/
By Prashant Agrawal
India’s prime minister greets the Mi-25 helicopters carrying Indian Navy MARCOS commandos. He shakes hands with the returning troops, congratulates and thanks them. For the photographers, he holds up his thumbs, “Mission Accomplished”-style. The MARCOS are returning from Pakistan where they took out some of India’s, and the world’s, most wanted terrorists.
That was the story that didn’t happen yesterday or the week before or the month before or the year before or the decade before that. It’s the story that some, perhaps many, Indians have wished to read. It hasn’t happened but the chances of it happening have gone up slightly.
According to the Indian government, 19 terrorists wanted by India reside in Pakistan. Maybe it’s only 10, maybe only five. But they’re there. Some live out in the open and give public speeches. One reportedly has an opulent house in Karachi.
For over two decades, India has warned the world of the dangers of terrorism coming from Pakistan. First, it was the nuclear network of A.Q. Khan who conspired with the world’s worst leaders, from Libya’s Gadhafi to North Korea’s Kim Il Sung. No-one listened until it was too late. Pakistani technology helped North Korea build out its nuclear program. Thankfully, Libya was stopped in time.
Then came the attack against the U.S. on 9/11. Indian officials pointedly suggested that there was a Pakistan link. The U.S. led an invasion of Afghanistan but soon its attention turned to Iraq. In the meantime, India suffered multiple terrorist attacks. There was the attack on Indian Parliament, the citadel of Indian democracy, the attack on shopping centers in Jaipur and Delhi, the attack in Varanasi, multiple attacks in Mumbai.
Then 11/26 occurred and 10 Pakistanis orchestrated an audacious attack against the civilian population of India’s financial and commercial hub. In nearly every Indian terrorist attack, India saw the hand of Pakistan. Pakistan denied it, in nearly every circumstance. In all cases, India exhibited restraint.
There are several reasons that India hasn’t conducted any cross-border raids on Pakistani terror camps, but one of them has been the American search for Osama bin Laden and the fear that an Indian strike would interfere with the hunt.
Now, Bin Laden is dead. India’s 19 most wanted terrorists are still alive and wanted – mostly likely in Pakistan. The U.S. will wind down from Afghanistan at some point in the near future. America is frustrated with its frenemy and with bin Laden dead, it may hasten its departure from the region.
The irony of Bin Laden’s death is that South Asia may have just become a more dangerous place. Pakistan’s military establishment shows no sign of giving up on terror as a state policy. India’s frustration only grows. Home Minister P. Chidambaram’s statement yesterday amounted to a “we told you so.” The Prime Minister has said that all terrorist activities from Pakistan must end. Given that Osama was found, as we all know now, in a garrison town, next to the Pakistani military academy and the homes of countless retired Pakistani military men, it’s tough to see Pakistan complying.
The next terrorist attack in India will bring a chorus of calls in India for American-style action. The scenario at top may become real. The true question comes next, what will Pakistan do? In the American attack, Pakistan did nothing. In the Indian case, it’s unlikely to sit idly by.
Indian planners have surely taken into account Pakistani reaction to any action. Pakistan is far from the U.S., India and Pakistan are neighbors, we can’t leave the neighborhood. Still, any Indian government will come under significant public pressure from the public following any new attack on Indian soil.
India will do something, potentially something similar to the above scenario. Limited war, perhaps, follows the Indian action. Perhaps, it’s full-on war. But how long will the Indian public wait after the next attack on Indian soil?
Those wishing for a show of Indian military muscle may just get it. The question then is what happens next? Osama’s death is a good thing, but it just may have made the subcontinent a little less safe.
