India might overtake China

Re: India might overtake China

Yeah dude, I think you are right. No American wants to work for Google, Microsoft, Intel, Sun, etc. Why would they. Thats why these companies are having to come to India to recruit people to design the next version of their product.

After all, believeing your logic these companies are no more hot in India.

(As an afterthought may I add that one of the co-founders of Sun MicroSystems is Vinod Khosla, an Indian. Any of you no good Pakis who use Java would be immdeiately advised to stop using, because eveytime you use a product or website made with Java, a little money goes to an Indian. Oh anyway why bother about that, after all you miserable folks have never used a website for anything but to surf porn).

The only thing that Pakistan will ever become is a failed state. The only thing that India will ever become is a superpower. Whenever anyone talks about the new great countries of this century, 2 names are taken : India ad China. When anyone talks about countries that wont exist by the middle of this century, Pak heads the list.

Re: India might overtake China

June 8, 2005
Bangalore: Hot and Hotter (NY Times Editorial)
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Bangalore, India

Every time I visit India, Indians always ask me to compare India
with China. Lately, I have responded like this: If India and
China were both highways, the Chinese highway would be a
six-lane, perfectly paved road, but with a huge speed bump off in
the distance labeled "Political reform: how in the world do we
get from Communism to a more open society?" When 1.3 billion
people going 80 miles an hour hit a speed bump, one of two things
happens: Either the car flies into the air and slams down, and
all the parts hold together and it keeps on moving - or the car
flies into the air, slams down and all the wheels fall off. Which
it will be with China, I don't know. India, by contrast, is like
a highway full of potholes, with no sidewalks and half the
streetlamps broken. But off in the distance, the road seems to
smooth out, and if it does, this country will be a dynamo. The
question is: Is that smoother road in the distance a mirage or
the real thing?

At first blush, coming back to Bangalore, India's Silicon Valley,
that smoother road seems like a mirage. The infrastructure here
is still a total mess. But looks can be deceiving. Beneath the
mess, Bangalore is entering a mature new phase as a technology
center by starting to produce its own high-tech products,
research, venture capital firms and start-ups.

"The ecosystem for innovation is now starting to be created
here," said Nandan Nilekani, the C.E.O. of Infosys. For several
years now, when venture capitalists funded companies in the U.S.,
they insisted that the R.&D. for the products be done in India.
But now, increasingly, Western companies will come up with a new
idea and then tell Infosys, Wipro or Tata, India's premier
technology companies, to research, develop and produce the whole
thing.

As one Wipro executive put it, "You go from solving my problem to
serving my business to knowing my business to being my business."
What will be left for the Western companies is the "ideation,"
the original concept and design of a flagship product (which is a
big deal), and then the sales and marketing.

"We're going from a model of doing piecework to where the entire
product and entire innovation stream is done by companies here,"
Mr. Nilekani added. All of this means that innovation will happen
faster and cheaper, with much more global collaboration.

The best indication that Bangalore is becoming hot is how many
foreign techies - non-Indians - are now coming here to work. P.
Anandan, an Indian-American who worked for Microsoft for 28 years
in Redmond, Wash., just opened Microsoft's research center in
Bangalore, which follows the ones in Redmond, Cambridge and Beijing.

"I have two non-Indians working for me here, one Japanese and one
American, and they could work anywhere in the world," Mr. Anandan
said. He added that when he got his engineering degree in India
28 years ago, all the competition was to get a job abroad. Now
the fiercest competition is to get an I.T. job in India: "It is
no longer, 'Well I have to stay here,' but, 'Do I get a chance to
stay here?' "

In the past year, Infosys received 9,600 applications from
abroad, including from China, France and Germany, for
internships, and it accepted 100. I asked one of these interns,
Vicki Chen, a Chinese-American business student from the
Claremont Colleges, why she came. "All the business is coming to
India, and I don't see why I shouldn't follow the business," she
said. "If this is where the center of gravity is, you should go
check it out, and then you become more valuable."

Even more interesting is how Indian firms are taking the skills
they learned from outsourcing and using them to develop low-cost
products for the low-wage Indian market: a medical insurance plan
for the poor for as little as $10 a year, a $2,000 car, a $200
laptop, supercheap cellphones, a low-fare airline ($75 one-way
for the three-hour Bangalore-Delhi flight) that sells tickets
from Internet kiosks in gas stations. Indian companies know that
if they can make money producing low-cost technology for poor
Indians, it gives them an incredible platform to then take these
products global. (Imagine the profit potential if they work in
the West?) China is doing the exact same thing.

Indeed, I now understand why, when China's prime minister, Wen
Jiabao, visited India for the first time last April, he didn't
fly into the capital, New Delhi - as foreign leaders usually do.
He flew directly from Beijing to Bangalore - for a tech-tour -
and then went on to New Delhi.

No U.S. president or vice president has ever visited Bangalore.

Re: India might overtake China

India and China: a comparison

January 18, 2005

The gap between the performance of the world’s two largest nations, China and India, keeps growing. Two instances from entirely different fields should give us an idea.

The world’s first commercial maglev (magnetic levitation) train is operating between the Pudong International Airport and downtown Shanghai.

It takes just seven minutes to cross the 30-kilometre distance – which is about the same distance between Mumbai’s international airport and Nariman Point, which takes anywhere from 75 minutes to a couple of hours, to cover.

In a different field, China won 63 medals in the last Olympics; India just one. The growing gap in economic performance, too, evidences few signs of narrowing.

Historically, there are a number of similarities between the two: ancient civilisations, the world’s leading and richest at one time; going down the league table in the second-half of the second millennium; and starting their progress to modernity in the middle of the last century.

In the 1950s and 1960s there was considerable media debate on which system, authoritarian communism in China or parliamentary democracy in India, will deliver better.

There was not much difference in the economic performance roughly until 1980, when the per capita incomes were also similar. Over the last quarter century, both instituted economic reforms and growth accelerated.

China embraced globalisation and trade enthusiastically, welcoming foreign direct investment with no inhibitions, and gradually gaining control of world markets for low-tech labour-intensive manufactures.

While reforms in India are supposed to have been initiated in 1991, the doctrinaire socialist policy had begun to be diluted in the second innings of Indira Gandhi.

The process of liberalisation continued under her son Rajiv Gandhi, and more dramatically after 1991. The growth rate doubled from the previous Hindu rate, but still lagged that of China.

The result has been that starting with more or less the same per capita incomes 25 years back, Chinese incomes today are double that of India’s – a result not only of faster GDP growth, but also of a lower population increase, thanks to the one-child policy.

Both face growing economic inequality.

Today, apart from higher incomes and lower poverty, the areas in which China is far ahead of us are literacy, FDI, labour rationalisation in the public sector and infrastructure investments.

Many international observers are astounded at the sheer speed with which infrastructure projects get implemented. As the Financial Times commented (January 21, 2004) “if thousands of villagers have to be moved to make way for roads or power stations, so be it: investment in infrastructure underpins China’s success.”

While the Deng revolution completely discarded Mao’s economic model, the Chinese haven’t forgotten one of the Great Helmsman’s thoughts: respect your enemy (that is, any problem) strategically, and despise him tactically.

The blitzkrieg-like implementation of projects is an illustration of the latter tenet.

Contrast the way the giant Three Gorges Dam has come up in China, with the fate of the Sardar Sarovar Project in Gujarat.

Agitation, endless court cases, environmentalists, and other manifestations of a democratic, rule-of-law society have not only delayed implementation perhaps by a decade, but also added enormously to the costs.

And the direct cost escalation is perhaps only a small part of the total cost to the economy.

One can only imagine the output lost because of the delays in the starting of the project.

Take another instance where China is ahead of us, namely, labour-intensive manufacture.

Our labour laws, which protect existing employment, but at the cost of creating new jobs, have created a bias in favour of capital-intensive investments.

An Ambani prefers a refinery, in which the only comparative advantage comes out of the duty structure, to manufacturing, say, toys in billions and exporting them to the world.

China does not seem to be treating PSUs as holy cows either – millions of jobs in state-owned enterprises have been lost in preparation for world competition.

But new ones keep getting created in larger numbers. In contrast, we not only condone over-manning, but also keep thousands employed in factories that haven’t produced anything for decades.

No wonder resources are short for the much-needed investments. Organised private industry, afraid of labour laws, has produced few new ones in recent years.

There is a positive side to our system as well: we avoided the millions of starvation deaths that were a corollary to Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” in augmenting steel output, and the social chaos of his Cultural Revolution.

Only an authoritarian system would permit such excesses. But the fact remains that fast growth in Asia has invariably come under authoritarian governments.

The correlation is strong, but as political correctness will argue, correlation is not necessarily cause and effect. Again, is quarter of a century too short a period to compare the efficacy of enlightened, reformist, authoritarian regimes and political democracies?

** To be sure, there is one field where we have a good, if frightening, chance of beating China – population. In most other areas, it is more comfortable to stop making comparisons. **

Re: India might overtake China

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=71705&headline=Nandan~Nilekani~Bangalored~in~Beijing

Bangalored in Beijing

Posted online: Sunday, June 05, 2005 at 0000 hours IST

After watching 8-lane highways and digital maps of a 3000-year-old city, after bumping into an architect who says he will build seven Chinese cities in four years, Infosys CEO Nandan Nilekani drives home to Bangalore past ghostly girders of incomplete flyovers

It is difficult not to be awed when one lands in Beijing. One drives into the city on broad tree-lined roads with magnificent buildings on either side. Most of the roads have bicycle lanes, which are still well used. In spite of the huge crowds, there is no sense of disorderliness. There is a great sense of history, of a 3000-year-old city proud of its past and preparing for its assignment with the future.

A free afternoon gives an opportunity to visit the Beijing Planning Exhibition Hall. It’s a showcase of the past, current and future of Beijing. It has enough to make an urban planner drool. Every bit of the city has been digitally mapped in detail.

The highlight is a 302 square-meter master plan of the city, at a scale of 1:750. It is surrounded by 10,000 square meters area of elevation photos of the city. I go around the exhibit marking landmarks on my map. Later when I travel around Beijing, I check whether the model is correct. Every building and park I had noted is exactly where it says it should be. What you see is what you get.

There are signs everywhere that Beijing is preparing for the 2008 Olympics. A new wing of the airport is expected to be ready before that. The budget talked about for the city’s upgradation is over US $20 billion.

The 3D movie at the Exhibition Hall gives a comprehensive view of the various sporting venues, evocatively called Bird’s Nest and Cubic Water. The world’s top architects have been drafted. It is as if the entire 14 million population of Beijing is working in unison, to ready itself for a debut on the global stage.

As I sit in the magnificent Great Hall of the People, and listen to President Hu, stray phrases stick to me. ‘‘By 2020, we will quadruple China’s GDP in 2000 to approximately US $4 trillion with a per capita level of some US $3000”… “We must focus on economic development as our central task”…”By the end of 2004, China had attracted a total of US$ 562.1 billion in FDI”…”Approved the establishment in China of more than 500,000 foreign-funded enterprises”… “Over 400 firms out of the FORTUNE 500 have invested in China…” “China will keep opening up its market, find new ways of using foreign capital”… “Work still harder to help foreign investors” … I read the printed version. There is no trace of ideological cant or outdated shibboleths, just a ruthless determination to leverage the world’s money and markets to lift millions out of poverty.

Over dinner, I bump into Bill McDonough, an architect from Virginia. I presume he is here to design skyscrapers. What are you doing here, I ask. He says he is here to build cities—seven of them—each capable of a population of 2 million. All based on a sustainable environmental model. How long will it take? Four years. I gulp. It is time to head back.

On the way to the airport, I look at the signs as they go by… 3rd ring road… then 4th ring road… Then 5th ring road. I have no doubt that a 6th one is probably in the works. The last billboard I see says “Come to Dalian the IT outsourcing capital of China”. It sounds like a premonition.

** In the airport lounge, I log on to the Net to see what is happening back home. Highway project referred to Supreme Court…BDA stayed from developing layout…Bangalore traffic stopped for hours due to flooding… IT companies’ land should be taken away for the poor, says ex-minister…I check my email. There is an invitation to speak at another conference on urban infrastructure. I press Delete.

By the time I land in Bangalore, it is the wee hours of the morning. One of the benefits of a quaint provincial airport with sleepy officials is that you clear it in 15 minutes. As I head home, I pass the lonely girders of a half-built flyover, overdue by years. The landscape has the eerie air of an abandoned ghost town.

So I close my eyes and console myself that we have built a mature, functioning democracy. Surely, building an eight-lane avenue with bicycle lanes shouldn’t be more difficult? **

Re: India might overtake China

what do you guys think pakistanto be developed nation. some guy even mentioned it. they don't even have a political system. India will ovetake China.

Re: India might overtake China

[quote=“nicols_john”]
June 8, 2005
Bangalore: Hot and Hotter (NY Times Editorial)
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Bangalore, India

[QUOTE]

http://www.counterpunch.org/

Thomas Friedman’s Imaginary World

By ALEXANDER COCKBURN

If it’s Monday, it must be Bangalore. Thomas Friedman’s back in India
and the mysterious subcontinent exercises its usual sorcery on the
wandering pundit, eliciting paragraphs of ecstatic drivel, as it has
from so many Times-men.

My favorite remains a post-Christmas dispatch, published onDecember
27, 2002, by the NYT’s resident correspondent in India at the time,
Keith Bradsher. It was a devotional text about neoliberalism’s apex
poster boy at the time, Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister of the state
of Andhra Pradesh, Time’s “South Asian of the year”, hailed by the
Wall Street Journal as “a model for fellow state leaders”.

After composing a worshipful resume of Naidu’s supposed achievements,
Bradsher selected for particular mention a secret weapon that the canny
reporter deemed vital to Naidu’s political grip on Andhra Pradesh.
“Naidu and his allies”, Bradsher disclosed to the NYT’s readers,
“speak Telugu, a language spoken only in this state and by a few
people in two adjacent states.” What Bradsher was saying was that Naidu
spoke the same language as the nearly 80 million other inhabitants of
Andhra Pradesh. It was as though someone ascribed Tony Blair’s
political successes in the United Kingdom to his command of English.

Apart from Naidu’s wondrous fluency in his native tongue, Bradsher
fixed upon other achievements likely to excite an American business
readership: “Mr. Naidu,” he confided, “has succeeded in raising
electricity prices here by 70 per cent” and “has enacted a law
requiring union leaders to be workers from the factory or office they
represent Andhra Pradesh has also relaxed some of the restrictions on
laying off workers”.

A couple of years later, in May 2004, the posterboy pal of Bill Gates,
Bill Clinton and the World Bank’s then chief, John Wolfenson, endured
the verdict at the polling booth of his fellow Telugu speakers. The
verdict was harsh. The very poor, the not-so-poor, farmers, rural
women, inner city-dwellers, all stated conclusively that life had got
worse in Andhra Pradesh, prices were unconscionable and the Naidu was a
fraud. Naidu’s elected coalition plummeted from 202 seats to a quarter
of that number. He and his party were ignominiously tossed from
office.

I remembered Bradsher’s excited commendation of Naidu’s hikes in the
price of electricity and his anti-union rampages when I read the
reports filed by U.S. correspondents and pundits from Paris, after the
French Non! to the EC proposed constitution a couple of weeks ago. It
was striking how many of them, presumably without any direct orders
from the owners of their publications, started lecturing the French in
the tones of nineteenth-century Masters of Capital.

The “Non”, they howled, disclosed the cosseted and selfish laziness of
French workers. On inspection this turned out to mean that French
workers have laws protecting their pensions, health benefits, leisure
time and other outlandish buttresses of a tolerable existence. No one
was more outraged than Friedman, a man who, we can safely surmise,
does have health benefits, enjoys confidence about his retirement
along with a robust six-figure income plus guaranteed vacations plus a
pleasant ambulatory existence living in nice hotels, confabbing with
CEOs, and lecturing gratified businessmen on their visionary nature
and the virtues of selfishness.

From Bangalore Friedman issued a furious rebuke. “French voters are
trying to preserve a 35-hour work week in a world where Indian
engineers are ready to work a 35-hour day. Next to India, Western
Europe looks like an assisted-living facility with Turkish nurses.” I
guess it does, though “engineers” is rather a dignified label to fix
on the cyber-coolies underpaid clerical workers who toil night and
day in Bangalore’s call centers. But if you want a race to the bottom
of the sort Friedman calls for, you don’t have to travel too far from
Bangalore, maybe though any direction will do north-east into the
former realm of posterboy Naidu to find an Indian reality compared
with which the so-called IT breakthroughs in India are like gnat bites
on the hide of one of those buffaloes you see in photos in articles
headlined “Timeless India Faces Change”.

In the Naidu years at least 5,000 Indian farmers committed suicide.
Across India, they’re still killing themselves. (A Kisan Sabha
farmers’ union survey of just 26 households in Wayanad, in northern
Kerala, that had seen suicides shows a total debt of over Rs. 2
million. Or about Rs. 82,000 per household (which is the equivalent of
just under $2,000. The average size of these farms is less than 1.4
acres. And a good chunk of that debt is owed to private lenders.)

Millions more lives millimeters from ruin and starvation. For hundreds
of millions of poor Indians, Friedman’s brave new world of the 90s
meant globalization of prices, Indianization of incomes. The state
turned its back on the poor. Investment in agriculture collapsed as
rural credit dried up. As employment crashed in the countryside to its
lowest ever, distress migrations from the villages to just about
anywhere increased in tens of millions.
Foodgrain available per Indian fell almost every year in the 90s and
by 2002-03 was less than it had been at the time of the great Bengal
famine of 1942-43. New user fees sent health costs soaring, and such
costs have become a huge component of rural family debt.

Newly commercialized education destroyed the hopes of hundreds of
thousands of women, as families, given the narrowed options, favored
sons over daughters. Farm kids simply dropped out. Even as the world
hailed the Indian Tiger Economy, the country slipped to rank 127 (from
124) in the United Nations Human Development Index of 2003. It is
better to be a poor person in Botswana, or even the occupied
territories of Palestine, than one in India.

Remember, India has a billion people in it. Maybe 2 per cent of them
get to fly in a plane or go online. Around 10 per cent are well off,
another 10 per cent doing okay. On the most optimistic count we’re
left with over half a billion of the poorest people on the planet. You
could build call centers every mile from Mumbai to Bangalore, stuff
teenagers with basic American slang in there working Friedman’s
stipulated 35 hours a day servicing American corporations and you
wouldn’t make a dent in the problem, which is that you can’t dump an
agricultural economy, build a couple of Cyberabads and say with any
claim to realism that a New and Better India has been born. New, yes.
Better, no.

The trouble is, the Indian press, along with the visiting foreigners
forgets about that half billion. A Lakme India Fashion Week gets
450-500 journalists covering it. But with the exception of Sainath, now
at the The Hindu, not a single Indian newspaper has a full time
correspondent on the agrarian crisis beat, or poverty and deprivation
beat.

India has done well in some senses at IT. But this is not a parable of
private enterprise unchained. The topmost – elite of elite Indian
technologists / engineers come from a handful of institutions known as
the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT). Most of the Silicon Valley
people are from there.These are entirely state-set up, state funded
institutions. Not a single one of them is private (established or
owned. Now, there are alumni in the US pushing to privatize the very
institutions that gave them everything.

As Sainath remarked to me, "It’s is not as though there’s Indian
genius in software / IT but almost none of this has been directed
towards, has even sought to address basic problems of India. There are
several such areas where Indian expertise (including from that very
state of Andhra) could do wonders for some classes of poorer Indian.
(Eg: traditional fishermen could have their boats fitted very cheaply
with tailor made devicesthat would make a huge and often life-saving
difference. Artisans could bypass middlemen through online exhibitions
and marketing and so on.) To the extent this happens at all, it is
very minimal, extremely tiny. Neither governments nor corporates nor
NRI millionaires have shown much interest in this. On the other hand,
look at the amount of effort that goes into IT trivia.

Most western correspondents only travel south west from Bangalore to
Kerala to deride as “hidebound” a state that elected a Communist
government in 1957, distributed land to the poor, has decent health
stats, near 100 per cent literacy. In recent years the neoliberals have
been running thing there too and in early June this year, in a
by-election, voters gave their opinion on such matters as recent
efforts to privatize education. Normally elections in Kerala are razor
thin affairs. This by-election saw the Congress Party candidate
shattered by a Communist Party (Marxist) in the Left Democratic Front
who won with a margin over the Congress candidate of more than 40,000
votes, a Kerala record. The LDF is reckoned as a cinch to win the
Kerala elections next year.

Take the Kerala result, throw in the rejection of Naidu and the BJP
coalition last year and you get a pretty good picture of what large
numbers of Indians don’t like, namely Friedmanism in any shape or
form, whether they read his columns in Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, or
even his crude version of English.

And by the way, Friedman found a grass roots movement, all on his own!
(Of course, it’s not really a grass-roots movement, but hey he tried.)

Barely had Friedman touched down in Bangalore before he discovered
something amazing. People who know that their chances of getting a job
improve if they know English, want to learn English. It beats
starving.

Here’s how Friedman puts it:

Sure, a huge portion of India still lives in wretched slums or
villages, but more and more …

Re: India might overtake China

^20 paragraphs to say nothing more than "India has a lot of poor people"?
i've never seen Friedman deny that, nor does that invalidate his comments in the least.

that entire article didn't refute anything Friedman said. not one single point.

Re: India might overtake China

I agree India will over take China - in population in 2050.

Re: India might overtake China

what is this overtaking bit? India an dChina will have their own paths to growth driven by sectors that will lead the world outside US.

Re: India might overtake China

^as Chinese ambassador Sun Yuxi put it...India is the world's office, China is the world's factory....the office and the factory under one Asian roof is a pretty lethal combination.

surely both will compete for business in the other's core competency (India for manufacturing and vice versa)....but the economic relationship remains healthy and both countries have paths to the top that do not necessarily cross or collide.

Re: India might overtake China

If by 2050 it would be a miracle, India will beat china hands down long before 2050. India adds roughly the population of Australia each year…

As of 2005
China 1280 million
India 1100 million

Re: India might overtake China

from today’s headlines…

Sensex hits all-time high for second straight day - closes at 7145

India signs largest FDI deal worth over Rs. 500 Billion

Re: India might overtake China

If you build insitutional growth mechanism..good things happen. One day, I hope Indians will set aside their differences with our Pakistani brothers and sisters and invest in their country, thereby bringing the cultures and economies of the two countries to gether even more. :flower1:

Re: India might overtake China

^ when you do that can u exclude the gujratis?. Gujus piss us off.

Re: India might overtake China

^ bhaijaan, I don't like Gujjus either. They are racially and ethnically sindhis. I understand your reservations. God bless.

Re: India might overtake China

I am sure india will overtake china. the only enemy that india has got is it’s own political system. change that first then india will have a chance.

Re: India might overtake China

India will overtake China when pigs start to fly.

Re: India might overtake China

Firstly, I am perplexed by the sheer volume of threads that focus not on Pakistan but on a foreign, alien country to the east of Pakistan!!

moderators, while I think you are doing a great job for the most part, I think there should be ceiling on the number of non-Pak related threads and the no. of people from one country of origin in particular (India!) on this website.

I mean to a third person it would really look like that this is an Indian and not Pakistani forum. No other country’s forums will have so much foreign content! And why are so many Indians on this forum??? They claim to be the IT power of the world - what’s the matter…no interesting portals of Indian origin??? :bukbuk:

Finally, as far as their delusions about taking over China are concerned: let these call centre barons think what they want…they are WAY WAY behind China when it comes to global influence, military strength, economics, exports, foreign exchange reserves. Also, China is not as passive as Pakistan that it will allow a southern neighbour to “overtake” it - it will not idly standby.

All we need is another 1962-style “skirmish” which lead to the speedy annexation of hundreds of square kilometres of something something Pradesh - can’t even pronounce those sanskrit names!!! and kaboom! India will go back a good 5-10 years and no amount of hindi movie junk will change that.

but still…moderators, let’s consider a cap on the number of “babus” lurking around in this forum…trust me they are not totally alien to the idea of living under quotas!; they won’t mind. :smiley:

Or is it that the Indian population has swelled so much that there is a glut of web users and you are the ones who didn’t find a place in your “wonderfully new Super Country that will overtake China soon” portals!!!

Re: India might overtake China

^^^ Very Well Said!!!

Re: India might overtake China

^ WHy should you be afraid of Indians?