Grand Ayatollah Sistani's challenge to the US for true democracy in Iraq (MERGED)

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Oh, the American’s are in such a bind, and being pushed from all corners…

**Surging Shiite Demands Put U.S. in a Bind **

The Bush administration has been backed into a corner on its political plan for Iraq by unexpectedly strident opposition from Shiite Muslim clerics, who played their trump card last week, calling on their followers to stage mass demonstrations. In the next few days, the administration, along with the U.S.-backed Iraqi Governing Council, plans to craft a new plan for choosing a transitional government that is more satisfactory to all the sects and ethnic groups in the country, including the long-suppressed Shiite majority. But there is every indication that no matter what shape it takes, the proposal could be unacceptable to crucial political players. “The administration is facing problems on all three fronts — with the Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds and the situation with the Shiites is looking more and more like a crisis,” said Bathsheba Crocker, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The picture could get a whole lot uglier.” The bind for the U.S. is that if it accedes to the Shiites’ demand for direct elections — and thus more clout — it risks alienating Sunni Muslims and Kurds as well as secular Iraqis and women, who would probably have more representation under the current plan calling for caucuses and indirect elections. If the United States sticks to the proposal now on the table, it will face potentially destabilizing Shiite street protests.

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Interesting article, Malik. There was a paragraph in there that particularly stood out to me, however.

**"Beneath the new interest of the United States in bringing democracy to the Middle East is the central dilemma that the most powerful, popular movements are ones that we are deeply uncomfortable with," said Thomas Carothers, director of the Democracy Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. **

That fact alone makes me doubt whether the WHite House is actually seriously still interesting in bringing democracy to Iraq. It's increasingly clear that democracy in Iraq will lead to an Islamic state that will be opposed to US foreign policy in the region - Bush is just looking for a way to set up a pseudo-democracy that he may be able to point to and say the USA's created a democracy, but will merely be a US puppet, dependent on US support to avoid being overwhelmed by popular sentiment.

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[QUOTE]
Originally posted by mAd_ScIeNtIsT:

That fact alone makes me doubt whether the WHite House is actually seriously still interesting in bringing democracy to Iraq. It's increasingly clear that democracy in Iraq will lead to an Islamic state that will be opposed to US foreign policy in the region - Bush is just looking for a way to set up a pseudo-democracy that he may be able to point to and say the USA's created a democracy, but will merely be a US puppet, dependent on US support to avoid being overwhelmed by popular sentiment.
[/QUOTE]

I think that the US has gone past the idea of appointing a Shia Muslim puppet like Chalabi for instance, thinking they could repeat the failing setup they put in place in Afghanistan. Which ever way the American's turn they are now seeing unbelievable political complications, that may well lead to an uprising of sorts that the United States has not yet seen in Iraq.

No wonder the United States is going back once again begging, to the United Nations to get it out of this bind. :)

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[QUOTE]
Originally posted by Seminole: *
**Sistani knows that whatever form of democratic government controls Iraq will be Shia dominated. He wants it sooner and more complete than US wants.*
[/quote]

That would make sense. If Shias are the dominant demographic group in Iraq [as they are], then they should dominate the government as long as minority groups are not ignored.

[quote]
These 'resistance fighters' that are killing a few coalition and a lot of Iraqis, are either part of the minority that used to rule Iraq, or foreign/domestic extremists who don't want any kind of a democratic future for Iraq.
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i think you are mistaken. They don't want occupation and they don't want puppet governments. Not all of them are necessarily against a representative, TRULY representative, government that is not beholden to any external entity for its creation.

[quote]
So you wish their determination to work for a stable and democratic future for this country be diminished? Abandon the quest for stability and democracy?
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**
"Stability and democracy"? Come on, you've got to be kidding me. When was the last time the US government successfully **imposed a democracy from Washington? Their involvement in the country has NOTHING to do with "stability and democracy". i would like to a "stable and democratic future" for lots of other countries as well, we can start with Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, and Uganda. Let's oust their dictators shall we.

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Why the US is running scared of elections in Iraq, The Guardian, 19 January 2004

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The US maybe scared of elections, but the Shia Muslims say "“Yes, yes to elections; no, no to selection,”

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wah!

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http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=483202 :hehe:

Kurds turn against US after losing control over oil-rich land
Kurdish community claims it had more autonomy under Saddam

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You see Malik, Abdali, and ak, there was room for compromise.

…
Shiite cleric may drop early election demand
Al-Sistani seeks U.N., Iraqi experts’ judgment on feasibility of vote

NAJAF, Iraq - The country’s top Shiite Muslim cleric would be willing to drop his demand for early legislative elections if Iraqi and U.N. experts agree such a ballot would not be feasible, one of his aides said Thursday.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani would also want to hear “alternatives” for choosing a new assembly, said spokesman Mohammed al-Yehia al-Mawsawi.

He made the comments during a lecture to about 200 Iraqi women, all dressed in black veils, in a Shiite mosque in this holy city where al-Sistani lives.

A blueprint announced Nov. 15 calls for a series of regional caucuses to select a new provisional legislature, which in turn would choose the new government that would take power by July 1, formally ending the occupation.

However, al-Sistani has demanded that the legislature be elected, despite U.S. insistence that a ballot would be impossible to hold in time for the July 1 deadline. The United States has asked U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to send a United Nations election assessment team to Iraq to see for itself whether early elections were possible.

U.N. judgment
Al-Sistani does not give interviews, but several allies have said he would accept the U.N. judgment. However, al-Mawsawi’s comment showed the ayatollah wants Iraqi experts to concur before he will accept it.

Al-Mawsawi said the ayatollah wants to make sure the U.N. experts do not “stay in a Baghdad hotel” and issue their findings but travel around the country to open a dialogue with people throughout the nation.

The aide said al-Sistani was adamant that sovereignty must be transferred to Iraqis by July 1, as the coalition plans. If the impasse over choosing a new government cannot be resolved by then, al-Mawsawi said there were several options, including handing over sovereignty to the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council.

Coalition spokesman Charles Heatly said transferring power to the council, however, was not under serious study.

During the lecture, al-Mawsawi launched into a scathing attack on the Nov. 15 agreement. Al-Mawsawi said the agreement between the coalition and Governing Council was announced in the middle of consultations between al-Sistani and the council.

Another illegitimate government?
The aide said the ayatollah believes the main danger of the Nov. 15 formula is that it “will take us from one quagmire of illegitimacy to another” because the members would not be chosen by the Iraqi people.

Al-Sistani believes that only an elected leadership will have the degree of public acceptance needed to guide the country through the difficult transition from Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship to democracy, the aide said.

The aide also said al-Sistani fears that the transitional government to be chosen through the caucuses might try to remain in office, even though the Nov. 15 agreement provides for new elections in 2005.

“A transitional government must be built on a sound basis,” al-Mawsawi said. “If the basis is not sound, then what comes after will also be unsound.”

“What is the guarantee for the transitional government not to stay in office beyond 18 months?” al-Mawsawi said. “A government like that can turn around and tell us that for security, regional and international circumstances, it will extend its terms for several years.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4021696/

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This is quite something. After being forced to repeatedly change it’s election-rigging plans by the Shia Muslims, now the American occupiers are feeling the heat from the people whose support they took for granted - the Kurds of Iraq.

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Time for another U turn or a spin…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40115-2004Jan22.html

NAJAF, Iraq, Jan. 22 – Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq’s most
influential Shiite Muslim cleric, has deemed a U.S. plan for the
country’s political transition unacceptable in “its totality and its
details,” a representative said Thursday. The remarks signaled
Sistani’s refusal to consider revisions that American officials hoped
would permit the plan to go forward.

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Those Kurds complicating things for the American’s even further…

**“Is this the reward we get for our help to the Americans?” **](Kurds campaign for federal state | World news | The Guardian)

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[/QUOTE]

Believe me the American’s are stuck in such a hole in Iraq now that they cannot get themselves out of, and which will end up defining the future course of America as a world power.

Before the American’s went into Vietnam they should have read up on the history of that nation, and then they would have never intervened. The same goes for Iraq…

Iraqi whispers mull repeat of 1920s revolt](http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/7809543.htm)

***“We are now under occupation, and the best treatment for a wound is sometimes fire,” said Najah al Najafi, a Shiite cleric who joined thousands of marchers at a recent demonstration where construction workers, tribal leaders and religious scholars spoke of 1920. The rebellion against the British marked the first time that Sunni and Shiite Muslims worked in solidarity, drawing power from tribesmen and city dwellers alike. ***

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Iraq Elections by 2005…

IMO having elections in Iraq by 2005 are more realistic, than June 2004. Any comments guppies?

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) – After meeting with a top Shiite proponent of early elections, a U.N. envoy leading the study of Iraqi balloting indicated Thursday that many who favor a quick vote for a transitional legislature are having second thoughts after consulting with the U.N. electoral team.
“The people we have met are at least asking themselves questions, at the very, very least. I think they are looking for a consensus,” said Lakhdar Brahimi, leader of the U.N. team.

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U.N. Official Says Early Iraq Elections Impossible

Looks like the UN has agreed with the position stated for quite some time by the US. Elections are not possible by June 30. The ball’s back in Sistani’s court. Any guesses whether he will be a man of his word and accept the UN appraisal.

U.N. Official Says Early Iraq Elections Impossible
Fri February 13, 2004 04:18 PM ET

(Page 1 of 2)
By Fiona O’Brien
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The U.N. envoy sent to Iraq to see if early elections were feasible said Friday credibility was more important than timing, after one of his aides ruled out holding polls before Washington hands back power in June.

The United Nations is trying to resolve a dispute between Iraq’s majority Shi’ites, who want elections before the transfer, and Washington which says there is not enough time to organize them.

“The demand of the Iraqi street for elections is a legitimate request but the Iraqi street must know that elections are a very complicated process,” said Lakhdar Brahimi, an adviser to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

“The benefits the street is hoping for cannot be achieved unless there are good preparations for those elections and they are conducted at a time when everybody can accept the result,” he told a news conference in Baghdad.

Brahimi would not speculate on when that might be.

Earlier his spokesman Ahmad Fawzi told BBC radio there was no question of delaying the June 30 handover or holding elections before then. “Elections will take place when the country is ready and that will be after the handover of power,” Fawzi said.

Annan is expected to give his verdict on the findings of Brahimi’s team in a week to 10 days.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=4357820&pageNumber=0

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Re: U.N. Official Says Early Iraq Elections Impossible

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
Looks like the UN has agreed with the position stated for quite some time by the US. Elections are not possible by June 30. The ball's back in Sistani's court. Any guesses whether he will be a man of his word and accept the UN appraisal.

[/QUOTE]

MyVoice ji, I think what should be more of a concern rather than guessing Sistani's intention is what's going to happen in June of 2004? Will the U.S. administration hand over complete control to the Iraqi group composed of exiled Iraqi leaders or not, whose credibility BTW is in serious question. If the answer is yes, then I think that would be a fatal mistake on behalf of the U.S., because that's going to further put Iraq in chaos, and if the answer is no, then who is going to take charge from the U.S.
My bet is the United Nations, any comments?

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The shias want an election and they want it “NOW”

I see trouble for yanks now, then or whenever. Lets see what spin yanks come up with… Yanks can mitigate the “egg on the face” by claiming monkeys actions on grounds of diminished responsibilities.. :hehe: But history may not be that forgiving…

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MNN1DVMOHO0RICRBAE0CFFA?type=topNews&storyID=4354619

Iraq Shi’ites Warn of Problems if Polls Delayed
Fri February 13, 2004 08:10 AM ET

By Suleiman al-Khalidi
NAJAF, Iraq (Reuters) - Supporters of Iraq’s top Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said on Friday an assessment by U.N. officials that elections are not possible before June 30 could stir revolt against their U.S. occupiers.

The United Nations sent a team to Iraq to gauge differences between Washington, which wants to hand over power to Iraqis by mid-year without holding polls first, and the country’s majority Shi’ites, led by Sistani, who insist on a democratic election.

U.N. officials in Iraq said on Friday it would not be possible to organize polls before June 30, though they stressed it was important to hold elections as soon as security and technical arrangements permitted.

** In Sistani’s home town of Najaf, his supporters threatened to rise up if they did not get their way.

“If the United Nations and Americans do not fulfil the wish of our religious scholars then fatwas (religious edicts) will follow,” Sheikh Rida Hamdani, a Sistani follower, said.

“At first there will be demonstrations or civil disobedience and finally armed struggle.”

“We are all behind Sistani, and Shi’ites all have arms,” Hussein Khalifa, a 43-year-old community elder, said. **

“The ball is in the United Nation’s court…if they do not achieve our goals we will open a front against them. What is this talk that conditions are not ready for elections?..Are the only conditions ready the ones that allow Americans to move about and do what they want freely in Iraq?”

DEMONSTRATIONS

** In practice, how Shi’ites react to the U.N. decision will be dictated by the orders from their religious leadership.

When Sistani, a recluse who communicates through aides, made it known he was demanding elections, tens of thousands of Shi’ites came on to the streets to demonstrate peacefully. **

The U.N. top envoy in Iraq, Lakhdar Brahimi, said after meeting Sistani he agreed time was needed to prepare elections, but there has been no official word on whether he would accept a view that elections be delayed beyond June.
If he does, it is likely his followers will do also. If he doesn’t, his supporters say violence will follow.

** “The Shi’ites represent the majority and they have a strong attachment to their religious leaders, so any fatwa to fight America will be followed by all Shi’ites,” said Sheikh Ali Sweidi, a Sistani disciple.

“It will be a grave mistake for America and the United Nations to pit themselves in a confrontation with Sayyid Sistani’s followers. They will lose greatly if they oppose the Shi’ite religious authorities.” ** * I bet yanks can give a spin to this threat *

Shi’ites make up 60 percent of Iraqis, and after years of oppression under Saddam Hussein, who came from the Sunni minority, feel it is time to assert their dominance.

Many supported the U.S. goal of toppling Saddam, but are against the occupation. Some said they thought Washington wanted to delay polls just so it could stay longer in Iraq.

"The elections will not take place because the United Nations and America will keep finding excuses for delaying them…for the Americans if the elections are held there would be no excuse for its troops to stay in Iraq,’ Sheikh Hassan al-Naji al -Mussawi said.

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***In Sistani’s home town of Najaf, his supporters threatened to rise up if they did not get their way. “If the United Nations and Americans do not fulfil the wish of our religious scholars then fatwas (religious edicts) will follow,” Sheikh Rida Hamdani, a Sistani follower, said. “At first there will be demonstrations or civil disobedience and finally armed struggle.” “We are all behind Sistani, and Shi’ites all have arms,” Hussein Khalifa, a 43-year-old community elder, said. ***

With the Shia Muslims breathing down their necks, and the ongoing resistance which has now claimed the lives of nearly 100 US/foreign soldiers since Saddam was captured a couple of months ago, no wonder the American’s are so desperate to get out of Iraq.

Bremer pins hopes on UN as exit strategy from Iraq](http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=491736)

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Re: Re: U.N. Official Says Early Iraq Elections Impossible

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ZulfiOKC: *

MyVoice ji, I think what should be more of a concern rather than guessing Sistani's intention is what's going to happen in June of 2004? Will the U.S. administration hand over complete control to the Iraqi group composed of exiled Iraqi leaders or not, whose credibility BTW is in serious question. If the answer is yes, then I think that would be a fatal mistake on behalf of the U.S., because that's going to further put Iraq in chaos, and if the answer is no, then who is going to take charge from the U.S.
My bet is the United Nations, any comments?
[/QUOTE]

I don't think the UN has any interest whatsoever in taking over. They abandoned Iraq and won't be back until they're convinced that their reps won't be dodging bullets every day.

The current governing council does not appear to be the answer. Caucuses are not acceptable. Elections can't happen.

I'm pretty sure the US will turn things over to someone on June 30 but exactly who and how is still a mystery.