Govt announces prepayment of $ 1.1 billion of loans to ADB and World Bank

Brilliant news. :k:

During 11 years of the Benazir and Nawaz “democractic” governments the vast majority of the over $38 billion foreign debt was built up.

But in just over 4 years of the Musharraf and Jamali governments we have/are managing to pay back $5 billion of that debt, reducing it to just over $33 billion. We need to contiue to pay back more and more debt to be less reliant on foreign donors and powers, and only with President Musharraf at the helm can we ensure that.

Prepayment of loans

In what can be described as a timely move to further reduce the country’s external debt burden, Pakistan on Monday sent notices to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank informing them that it would prepay their 18 loans worth $1.078 billion during the current financial year. According to the Debt Office, these were identified as expensive loans carrying interest rates between 4.6 to 11 percent. Of the total amount which is proposed to be prepaid, the seven ADB loans of $596.7 million were repayable between 2007 and 2019 while eleven loans of the World Bank worth $481.7 million were repayable between 2005 and 2013. As a result of debt management strategy, the country’s external debt liabilities which had been reduced from $38 billion to $35 billion in the last three years would decline to $33.5 billion this year. Debt servicing would also come down creating fiscal space for infrastructure projects and social sector development.

While all this comes as good news, some deep thought needs to be given as to why such a huge burden of debt, including expensive ones, was created in the past. Though Pakistan had been contracting loans from bilateral donors as well as multilateral institutions, the situation really seems to have exacerbated in the two decades of eighties and nineties. Debt burden had become unsustainable. As successive governments were living beyond means, a situation had been reached where even part of the current expenditure was met through borrowed funds. The enforcement of financial discipline had been long overdue. With massive inflow of home remittances, big increase in exports and build-up of foreign exchange reserves to over $11 billion, the government’s initiative in prepayment of expensive loans clearly shows that the economy is on the road to recovery. It has also been announced that only grants or soft term loans will now be contracted. But, at the same time, it is also necessary to ensure that external assistance is obtained when absolutely necessary.

The question which should be asked and an answer found for it is that why the country’s economy could not acquire the capacity for debt retirement despite quite heavy investment in its various productive sectors. However, presently the situation is that bilateral donors had already rescheduled $12.5 billion of debt earlier and the government had repaid some three billion dollars over the past three years. It will now be prepaying a little over one billion dollars of expensive debt. It has also been trying to reduce the burden of servicing domestic debt. Public debt, which at one point of time, had been reaching a level of being almost equal to the country’s gross domestic product, will come down to around 85 percent of GDP this year, a substantial reduction, indeed. The lesson to be learnt from all this is that the governments cannot afford to live beyond their means.

Excellent move. We are actually in simplistic terms moving forward. Exports are up debt is on the way down. However a word of caution. Exports may decrease in the next year or two due to India's case at the WTO Dispute Settlement Body on the EU's Generalized System of Preferences concessions to Pakistan under the pretext of Drug trafficing (we help stop it not the other way around). If that case is won, we would lose the preferential treatment receive with regard to quotas, tariffs, tariff rate quotas and other non-tariff barriers.

Considering the world economic down turn, and the amount of Pakistanis leaving the US and returning, remittances will most likely also decrease over the next year or two. Added to that the fact that due to the down turn, we may lose out in demand for our products our exports could also decrease.

Exports decrease, remittances decrease, our CE could have some problems from the political parties even though its not his fault.

Lastly paying back the ABD and WB is ok, but we owe the most money on a bilateral basis to Japan, the US, the EU etc. through the London and Paris clubs. So we have to see how that debt is handled.

Honestly our debt should ideally be at 20 billion by 2008. Realistically 25 billion. This of course includes the debt that has been rescheduled for 2020 etc.

Wow $1.1 B.

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*Originally posted by Matsui: *
Wow $1.1 B.
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Yes. As long as they are prepaying any expensive debt, its good. Its a lot better than the times when pakistan faced bankruptcy.

[quote]
the total public debt (including foreign) stood at 90.5 per cent of GDP on June 30, 2003, and "is targeted to be cut further to 84.4 per cent of GDP."

The foreign currency debt was at 47 per cent of GDP in June 2003 against 64 per cent of GDP in 2000. The objective, he said, was to reduce cost and the size of total debt.

The minister said that external debt liability was 335 per cent of foreign exchange earnings in 1999 which "has now been slashed to 178 per cent in June 30, 2003."

[/quote]

They've performed well as it is, and i dont see any need to hurry in repaying large debts and risk exposing the Rupee to external shocks. Plus, pakistan is not just paying $1.1 bn, its also going to save a couple of million if not billion dollars on interest.

Good move; I would imagine a lot more will be paid with the increase in money coming through from the sale of State Owned Enterprises.

Expect some big news in that dpeartment, Habib Bank and Pakistan State Oil are on the chopping block first, the GoP is expecting at least 900 million dollars from them, and if they are sold of successfully they'll prbably push through a lot more next year.

Govt. should be able to raise a lot of money with OGDCL too.

http://www.dawn.com/2003/10/02/ebr1.htm

With privatization going on at such a frentic pace, I expect them to pay an even larger amount of debt next year. 2.5% shares of OGDC will bring in around $1.5-2.0 billion. So even if they sell off just the OGDC they’ll be able to pay off a very large chunk of the external debt.

One question though: Why not offer more shares to the public? I mean why not 10 or 15% of the total floatable shares? My only guess is that its because they dont want to create a situation of oversupply and reduce the price of the share. Any other suggestions?

Thank Allah they are implementing privatization through the market. Instead of selling off assets to individuals, as is in the past. Alot of areas still need to be re-privitized, ie taken off the hands of some MNA or some General.

That would be one issue CP. Another one can simply be profits. As this was a State run enterprize, it i bet has billions of rupees of "debts" to the government, or is actually making a lost over all. If its making a loss, the most likely scenerio, you dont want to sell off a major chunk to the public that demands some returns. Of course if there are no returns, they demand more efficiency. Efficiency could turn into unemployment and government doesnt want to go down that line. Of course as in all economic analysis external shocks are negated and everything else is ignored.

While it is important that we repay as much external debt as possible, it is also vital that we tackle domestic debt, and it is encouraging to read that the Jamali government is planning to pay a great portion of that of as well.

**Pakistan to pay off expensive debt soon **

The Zafarullah Jamali government is considering the option of repaying expensive domestic debt of about Rs 250 billion that is mainly invested in a number of national savings schemes and is expected to mature in the next four years. According to a senior Ministry of Finance official, the government has already banned the corporate sector from investing in the national savings schemes (NSS) to prevent the piling up of expensive public debt.

“This investment which is quite huge in terms of its size is likely to mature in the near future and could possibly touch a figure of Rs 250 billion by financial year 2006-2007,” the Finance Ministry official said. This stock of debt has to be repaid either through mobilisation of more revenue resources, which is now becoming increasingly possible, or by increasing bank borrowings with the likely implication of a rise in the rate of return on government papers, the official further said. The official, however, said that it did not necessarily mean the closure of all NSS schemes at once but the redemption of all corporate holdings upon maturity with the view to restrict investment in NSSs by certain category of individuals and that too at an interest rate far lower than previously offered. Pakistan has already formally sent notices to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) that it would pre-pay 18 loans worth $1.078 billion during the current financial year.

wow! :mash: this is really good news :slight_smile:

Anyone who wants to read up on the governments economic policy should check this link for the interview with the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP):

People keep saying that we have received a lot of grand assistance and reimbursements from the US after 9/11 - even if you exclude that, we have a current account surplus of almost 3.6 billion dollars, which is almost 5 per cent of our GDP. Our dependence on borrowing has declined in a fundamental way. The second part of our strategy was to provide fiscal space for development expenditure. So monetary policy and the fiscal policy had to be coordinated. The government fiscal deficit has been reduced from 7 per cent of GDP to 4.3 per cent of GDP. By reducing fiscal deficit and allocating less resources towards debt servicing, those sources can be used for development expenditure. So the monetary policy has to be synchronised with the fiscal policy, and the weighted average rate of the six-month table, which is what the government is borrowing. That has now come down to 2 per cent, saving the government a lot of money which went towards both external and domestic debt servicing. Instead of 66 per cent of the revenues being allocated for debt servicing, we were able to spend only 36 per cent this year. Consequently public sector development expenditure has risen from 100 billion rupees to 130 billion rupees. This year we are going to have 160 billion rupees so in two years time there is an increase of almost 60 per cent for public sector development.

How can you exclude the dole from US? If that wasn't there, the 3.6B surplus would have had to be applied leaving no surplus. Secondly, there have been a succession of reschedulings which have deferred huge repayments that came due. And perhaps more importantly, any reduction in debt servicing (which is more of deferment) is more than offset by increased defence spending. The one point I will agree with is the incremental borrowing has been reduced.

^ you are forgetting Pakistan's economy took a 10 billion dollar hit over supporting the US.

That's a US estimate arrived at using inflated US prices and labor rates. otwithstanding thatm even if it were real, that goes to the cost side justification for a short-fall ...doesn't help with the surplus arguement.

We can exclude the dole from the US because there was none of the amount that you are talking about, and even if there was any, it had nothing to do with this prepayment. The money for this debt was raised through the sale of PIBs.

http://www.dawn.com/2003/10/14/top6.htm

Secondly, what surplus exactly are we talking about? (trade,fiscal,foreign exchange?)

Lastly, I dont know where you are getting your numbers from on defence expenditure, but it has actually not increased much at all in Pakistan.

So the theory of savings going into increased defence expenditure holds no grounds.

More loans to be paid back on top of the $1.1 billion already announced. :k:

Pakistan to repay IMF loan quickly

Pakistan will repay $325.19 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the ongoing financial year against various loans that have been availed during the past one decade. According to a senior official in the Ministry of Finance, while the total repayment of loans to the IMF would be $1.448 billion during the next ten years, nearly half of it would be paid during the next couple of years as part of an ongoing effort by the government to quickly repay foreign loans. “These repayments are in addition to the prepayment of $1.078 billion to the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank and other repayments of foreign loans under their regular payment schedules,” says the Finance Ministry official.

During the first half of 2003-2004, the loan repayment to IMF is around $104.241 million and in the second half repayment of $220.955 million is expected, the official said. These repayments are being made for general resources account, including regular charges, principal and interest on Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), compensatory financing facility for exports, extended fund facility arrangement under its obligation and Stand-By Arrangement. Pakistan is currently utilising Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement from the IMF that was approved in December 2001 for three years. Pakistan has completed half the programme successfully without any hurdles.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ChthonicPowers: *
We can exclude the dole from the US because there was none of the amount that you are talking about, and even if there was any, it had nothing to do with this prepayment. The money for this debt was raised through the sale of PIBs.

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and what are Pakistan Investment bonds? you have no intention of repaying them?

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*Originally posted by TomSawyer: *

and what are Pakistan Investment bonds? you have no intention of repaying them?
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Domestic debt is the next best thing to a prepetual loan. Govt. borrows from me, pays to you. Borrows from a third person and pays to forth. The process continues. earlier the govt's were borrowing from domestic parties, and using it to build stables and mansions. Now, fortunately, thats not happening.

How do the Pakistani notes do on the secondary market? I would imagine the debt market is quite lively.

pakistan just had its rating upgraded. So the speculative nature of pakistan’s euro bons (at least) is dying down.

Here:
http://www.brecorder.com/story.php?id=55337&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=

Interest rates on PIBs are pretty low too. And SBP just rejected offers for new PIBs with higher interest. So with the current low interests, I dont see any probs.

^ that's fine as long as it's understood that a) PIBs raised local debt b) PIBs are in Rupees so if these proceeds were used to repay $s and SDRs (as you contend), somewhere you bought hard currencies and c) since PIB rates are quite high (ranging 4 to 12+% I believe) it's not very smart to retire foreign debt this way. But, if you're happy so be it. After all the govt can print as many rupees as needed to pay the high interest and further endanger the fiscal situation.