Re: Future Military Leadership of Pakistan: Stratfor Analysis
I had been meaning to post on this Stratfor analysis on Military Leadership of Pakistan.
Interesting write-up. I wouldn’t say interesting analysis because it disregards certain realities and ‘other factors’ that prove vital when speculating military leadership and dynamics anywhere. Many circles have been discussing the upcoming military set up since last year in the light of Musharraf’s ouster, escalated domestic disturbances as well as possible foreign aggression. Under any scenario, the role of Pakistani military in politics remains highlighted as strategically it seems impossible to alienate one from the other.
And on the upcoming top commanders, I think no General should be labelled mild mannered, history the world over aswell as right here in Pakistan has proven there’s no connection between mild-mannersim and a General’s ability to act, react etc.
I do agree with the names of upcoming top commanders mentioned. I still believe Gen Satti may well be a front runner for VCOAS. Ive felt that for quite some time.
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/showpost.php?p=4458447&postcount=1
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/showpost.php?p=4460813&postcount=5
But still we can never be sure in the end. So let’s see. The CJCSC is ceremonial and as such we cant be 100% sure if it’ll be an Army 4 star again…
And as far as emergency exit of present Chief is concerned, the Army will stay on even more persistently. Gen Ahsan will operationally be the next in line of course, it’ll be his call to retire, get extension, put martial law, sleep with the politicians or build a guillotine etc. Gen Ehsan holds a ceremonial appointment which makes it hard for him to directly stir command of the Army or even all 3 forces.